Typhoon Talas Update #13

Typhoon Talas was last located approximately 950km southwest of Tokyo or about 700km south southeast of the island of Shikoku. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Latest IR image indicates that convection is now blowing up all around the center with the coldest of cloud tops showing up in the northern half. Conditions remain favorable up to landfall with weak wind shear and warm sea temperatures. An upper-level low near the system, however, has been inhibiting convection for days now. Most models and agencies still think Talas will strengthen a little more before making landfall.

IR from NRLMRY

Computer models are starting to come into agreement with Talas' track. The consensus now takes Typhoon Talas towards the island of Shikoku as early as Friday noon (Japan Time). We still have to resolve the timing and strength differences; we should have a better idea on those aspects by tomorrow. Talas will the track across Honshu, passing through the regions of Chugoku and Kinki. Talas should exit to the Sea of Japan by Saturday and will begin extra tropical transition afterwards.

Please stay tuned for our forecast map later today.
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Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 090111

Typhoon Talas Update #12

Typhoon Talas continues to track closer to Japan. It was last located approximately 1000km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Typhoon Talas continues to struggle fighting off subsidence and dry air which has kept the convective activity mainly on the eastern side. Latest IR image, however, beginning to show some signs of improvement on the western periphery. The typhoon maintains a well-defined core although haven't really established a full-fledged eyewall based on microwave imagery.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image (also from NRLMRY) below shows how huge Talas' circulation is. Tropical storm winds extend as far away as 300km from the center.

Forecasts for Talas have not really changed significantly although we have adjusted our projected landfall more to the west based on the trend today. We now think Talas will make landfall on the eastern side of the island of Shikoku by Friday afternoon (Japan Time) as a weak Typhoon with winds of around 120 to 140kph. It will then weaken to a tropical storm overnight as it traverses the terrain of Kansai/Kinki Region in Honshu. It will then exit towards the Sea of Japan by Saturday. Talas could begin extra-tropical transition as early as Sunday as it tracks well west of Honshu and Hokkaido.

Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL); times on that map are Philippine Time--just add one hour for Japan Time.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 083111

Tropical Depression Nanmadol Update #24 [FINAL]

Nanmadol has been downgraded into a Tropical Depression after making landfall in Fujian Province earlier this morning. TD Nanmadol (Formerly Bagyong Mina) was last located approximately 60km north of Xiamen. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 55kph gusting to 80kph. It is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Xiamen Airport continue to report winds between 20 to 30kph with a pressure of 995mb. So far, places around Fujian and Zhejiang provinces have received 24 hour rainfall amounts between 50 to 150mm. Expect 50 to 100mm more rain today as Nanmadol moves inland.

TD Nanmadol should weaken further as it traverses Chinese terrain. It is expected to dissipate as early as tomorrow.

This is the final update for Tropical Depression Nanmadol. Please stay tuned for our complete update on another tropical system--Typhoon Talas--later this afternoon (4pm).
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Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 083111

TS Nanmadol and TY Talas Update

Nanmadol weakens to a weak tropical storm as it stalls just east of Fujian. We were expecting landfall to have occured by now but the system seemed to have remained stationary over the Taiwan Strait. The center of circulation was last located approximately 80km east of Xiamen. Maximum sustained winds of around 65kph gusting to 95kph.

Xiamen Airport is currently reporting winds of 20 to 30kph winds with a pressure of around 995mb, which agrees well with the estimates from weather agencies. Radar from CMA also showing bands of rain moving inland from Nanmadol's center.

We are still forecasting landfall to occur sometime today. It will then weaken to a depression as it moves over land and should dissipate as early as tomorrow.

Typhoon Talas, on the other hand, has begun to move west northwestward in response to the building ridge of HIgh Pressure northeast of the system. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Talas is moving at a speed of 10kph.

Computer models continue to shift westward with regards to the track. It remains to be see, however, where the exact landfall point will be. Right now, the spread stretches from Shikoku to the Izu Peninsula in the Shizuoka Prefecture. Timing looks to be around Friday morning (Japan Time) as a Category 1 typhoon. It will move across Honshu, weakening to a tropical storm, and should exit into the Sea of Japan as early as Saturday. After that, Talas should begin extra-tropical transition as it interacts with the baroclinic zone in the north.

We'll discuss more on the track later in our 4pm update.
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Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 083111

TS Nanmadol and TY Talas Update

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Formerly Bagyong Mina) continues to weaken as it approaches the southeastern coast of China.It was last located approximately 90km west of Xiamen or about 240km southwest of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 75kph gusting to around 100kph. Nanmadol is moving north northwestward at around 10kph.

Recent VIS Satellite image shows a partially exposed center. The IR also showing the majority of convection is displaced south of the center. This latest radar image from CMA shows bands of light to moderate rain which propagates from the center is now moving across much of Fujian Province. Areas across this province should get rainfall amounts of around 100-200mm in 24 hours. Watch out for landslides and flashfloods in these places.

Radar image from CMA

Forecast for Nanmadol has been adjusted slightly north. We now think the storm will pass north of Xiamen later tonight or very early tomorrow (Wednesday). Closest point of approach will be within 100km of Xiamen. Nanmadol will then continue moving inland, weakening to a tropical depression as early as Wednesday afternoon and should dissipate over Jianxi Province by Thursday.

My Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Talas

Typhoon Talas continues to move slowly north northwestward at arounnd 10kph. It is still well south of Japan--about 1200km south of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph gusting to 150kph.

Visual satellite imagery still depicting Talas as a very large cyclone with a diameter of well over 1000km. Infra-red image also showing increasing convective activity from all quadrants. Wind shear remains very weak in that area and sea surface temperatures continue to be favorable for further development.

IR from FNMOC

We have shifted our forecast track more to the left to account for the recent trends among computer models. There is still a very large disparity, however, among tracks by these models; a spread of over 1,000km in day 4! Some models showing a hit in Kyushu while some takes Talas to Tokyo. The ECMWF has been the most consistent among those that we use which still shows a landfall east of Kanto by Friday.

Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

We expect Talas to continue moving northwestward and should turn more to the north northeast by Thursday. We have limited Talas' future intensification due to it being a very large cyclone which has the tendency to suck more dry air. Furthermore, wind shear is also forecast to increase as by Thursday as it moves towards Southern Japan. We are thinking of a landfall east of the Kii Peninsula by Friday morning (Japan Time) as a Category 1 typhoon. It will then track across Honshu, weakening to a tropical storm, before exiting into the Sea of Japan by Saturday.

Please remember that forecast tracks can and do change as we get nearer to landfall so please always check with us for updates.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 083011

TS Nanmadol and TY Talas Update

Tropical Storm Nanmadol continues to move very slowly across the Taiwan Strait. It was last located approximately 115km east southeast of Xiamen or about 180km southwest of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds remain at 100kph with gusts of up to 140kph. Nanmadol is moving northwestward at 10kph.

All Signal Warnings for the Philippines have now been dropped by PAGASA.

TS Nanmadol is on its way to making landfall in the Fujian Province later tonight, less than 50km away from Xiamen. It will then continue moving inland across China and should dissipate as early as Thursday. Expect rainfall amounts of up to 200mm across SE China with storm surges of up 4 to 6 feet along coastal areas.

Rainfall continues to fall across Southern Taiwan. Latest rainfall reports from that country range from 100-200mm. Areas across Western Taiwan also continue to experience tropical storm force winds although conditions there should improve today.

Talas, on the other hand, has strengthened is now upgraded to a typhoon by the JMA. It is still well south of Japan at the moment although the storm has begun to turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are now 120kph gusting to 150kph. Typhoon Talas is moving northwestward at 10kph.

Forecasts continue to point at a Honshu Landfall by Friday perhaps as a Category 1 Typhoon. There are still large disparities among models, however, including exact landfall point and the timing. We will discuss more on the forecast later in our 3pm update.
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Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 083011

TS Nanmadol and TS Talas Update

Nanmadol (Formerly Bagyong Mina) has made landfall near Hengchun in Southern Taiwan very early this morning (around 3am). It has since weakened to a tropical storm. It has also exited into the Taiwan Strait and regained a little bit of strength as it moved across the waters. Tropical Storm Nanmadol was last located approximately 100km west northwest of Kaohsiung or about 230km southwest of Taipei. Nanmadol is now out of the Philippine Area of Responsbility.

Signal #1 remains in effect for Batanes Group of Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are up slightly to around 95kph gusting to around 140ph. Nanmadol is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph. Weather stations from Taiwan still recording sustained winds of around 65 to 70kph (TS strength) with occasional gusts of as high as 90 to 100kph. Yesterday, just before it made landfall, we saw some reports of gusts as high as 170kph in the southeastern part particularly Lanyu.

Furthermore, there are widespread rainfall reports of 100-200mm in 24 hours. Hengchun actually reported rainfall amounts of near 350mm. Based on the radar image from Taiwan below, there are still bands of light to moderate rain affecting the southeastern areas such as Kaohsiung and Tainan. Other areas reporting windy conditions with mostly cloudy skies.

Radar image from CWB

Forecasts for Nanamdol are generally in good agreement among models and agencies although some discrepancies the timing. We do expect the storm to continue on its present movement at a slow pace. We expect it to make landfall in Fujian Province--approximately 80km south of Xiamen--by late Tuesday night. It will then continue moving across China, weakening rapidly and should dissipate as a depression as early as Thursday.

My Personal Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL):

Tropical Storm Talas

Tropical Storm Talas continues to remain stationary well south of Japan. It remains a tropical storm at the moment as it continues to organize at a slow rate. Latest IR image, though, is now showing improved banding and convective activity especially on the eastern side. A recent microwave image also reveals a very nice organization in the lower levels of the storm structure although the center of circulation still looks elongated. Wind shear is very weak in that area (about 5 to 10knots) and sea surface temperatures remain warm. We expect Talas to slowly intensify over the next 24 to 48 hours.

The Forecast track remains very difficult to pinpoint. I would like to say, however, that Japan's chances of seeing stormy conditions this weekend continue to increase. Model consensus now brings Talas towards Honshu near the Ize Peninsula (southwest of Tokyo) by Friday. The steering patterns in the atmosphere are somewhat complicated and the movements, timing, and eventual positioning of these features are very crucial for Talas' track down the road. Most forecasts by agencies also show a landfall near Tokyo but keep in mind that this is still about four days away and we have seen how Nanmadol's forecast track dramatically changed within 24 hours; those shifts could also happen here with Talas.

Nevertheless, my forecast takes somewhat of a middle track although favoring more on JMA's forecast as well as on the GFS model. If it makes landfall, the strength looks to be around a strong Category 1 or a weak Category 2. Talas is then forecast to continue moving northeastward across Honshu and could exit towards the Sea of Japan by the weekend.

My Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

I will have my next update by tomorrow morning.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082911

TY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Update

Hello! We still have power here so I'm gonna put up this quick update on the West Pacific.
NO VIDEO UPDATES! SORRY.

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) was last located approximately 90km west of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds still at 165kph gusting to 200kph. Nanmadol is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

As of 11am today, here are PAGASA's Signal Warnings:

Signal #3: Batanes Group of Islands

Signal #2: Babuyan-Calayan Group of Islands, Ilocos Norte

Signal #1: Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Sur

Batanes will continue experiencing typhoon winds for at least 6 hours. They will also get some very heavy rain with amounts of up to 200mm in 24 hours. Areas under Signal #2 will get at least tropical storm winds of up to 100kph with rainfall amounts of up to 100-200mm in 24 hours. Signal #1 will experience gale force winds of up to 50 to 60kph. These stormy conditions for much of Northern Luzon will still continue for at least 12 hours.

Rest of Luzon and Visayas will experience scattered rain showers with occasional thunderstorms due to the SW Monsoon. Mindanao slightly clearer weather but can't rule out a shower or two. Light amounts of rain for these areas.

Taiwan will now begin to experience typhoon winds of up to 150kph. Latest radar from CWB show the heavier rains in red:

 Some areas in S Taiwan now experiencing tropical storm conditions and I do expect the weather there to continue going downhill. Please be careful if you're in Taiwan!!

Forecasts continue to shift westward. We now think Nanmadol will make landfall in Southern Taiwan by Monday very early morning. It will pass near Kaohsiung and then exit into Luzon Strait by Tuesday as a tropical storm. It will then make another landfall in Fujian Province in SE China by Wednesday. It will move south of Xiamen and north of Shantou. It will then weaken to a tropical depression and then eventually dissipate late next week (Friday).

Personal forecast for Nanmadol (Note: NOT OFFICIAL)

Tropical Storm Talas still struggling to intensify further as it remains stationary well south of Japan. Winds around 100kph gusting to 150kph. Still forecast to intensify into a typhoon perhaps as early as tomorrow. Latest computer model forecasts now put the Kanto Region under a medium to high risk of seeing some stormy conditions next week. We forecast Talas to continue  moving northward, intensifying along the way. It could become a Category 2 as it moves less than 400km southwest of Tokyo by that time. There are still LOTS OF TIME to go so do expect the forecasts to change.

My Personal Forecast for Talas (NOT OFFICIAL)

Winds here in New York are getting stronger by the minute. Power outages are now occurring left and right in my area but thankfully we still have power. I will try to put up an update by 6pm today (Philippine Time) if you don't see that here, that means my power is out. I don't know when it will go back so please if it occurs just consult your official forecasting agencies (JMA for JAPAN, CWB for TAIWAN, or PAGASA for the Philippines). You can also go to westernpacificweather.wordpress.com for occasional updates.

Please hope (and pray) Irene doesn't do much damage here.
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Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 082811

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #18

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) has weakened slightly as it moves slowly across the Babuyan Channel. The center of circulation was last located approximately 80km southwest of Basco, Batanes or about 120km north northwest of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 185kph gusting to 230kph. Nanmadol/Mina is moving northward at 10kph.

As of 5am today, here are the Signal Warnings released by PAGASA:
Signal #3: Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands
Signal #2: Ilocos Norte, Abra, Apayao, Kalinga, Rest of Cagayan
Signal #3: Ilocos Sur, La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, Northern Aurora

Latest IR image from NRLMRY (seen below) shows a new blow up of convection right over the center. As we mentioned yesterday, Nanmadol still has a slight chance of re-intensifying back into Category 4 today and it seems it is trying to do so. Waters here are still very warm and wind shear is still weak so our typhoon still has about 24 hours of favorable conditions that could allow it to intensify again.

The Philippines, particularly Northern Luzon will continue experiencing tropical storm conditions with some gusts that could occasionally reach typhoon force (around 120kph). Rainfall amounts of 100-200mm will also continue falling particularly in the western sections and the mountainous regions.

Likewise, the SW Monsoon will continue affecting parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas bringing light to moderate rains with occasional thunderstorms.

Taiwan is also beginning to feel the effects of Nanmadol with outer rain bands now beginning to make their way towars the southern and central portion of that country. As seen in this radar image from CWB below, we can see bands of moderate rain with some pockets of very heavy rain with thunderstorms. These could cause flashfloods and landslides

Forecasts continue to bring Nanmadol towards Taiwan by Monday night as a Category 3. It could then move westward across the Taiwan Strait and into Southeastern China as a Tropical Storm late next week.

An update here in the US: we are now slowly feeling the first effects from Hurricane Irene. As you can see, we still have power here but there is a likelihood of power outages later today so please do understand if I decide not to make a Video Update for today. I will, however, try to put up a complete Text Update at 3pm today.

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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 082811

TY Nanmadol (Mina) | TS Talas Update

Typhoon Nanmadol was last located, as of 4pm today, approximately 40km north northwest of Sta. Ana, Cagayan or about 60km northeast of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds still around 205kph gusting to 250kph. Nanmadol is now beginning to move north northwestward very slowly at around 10kph.

Nanmadol made landfall earlier near Sta Ana/Gonzaga Area in Cagayan. Now weakened to a Cat 3 as it exits into water. Reports of 2 dead already due to landslides. Rainfall reports across Luzon range from 80 to 200mm so definitely the area got soaked with moderate to heavy rain!

A recent Microwave Image from NRLMRY shows the inner core suffered from the land interaction and is partially open to the west. You can still see some intense convection on the eastern side, however. As it moves over the warm waters near Babuyan, there is a chance Mina could re-intensify back into Category 4 later tonight.

If you’re Taiwan, you might wanna prepare now. Timing for deteriorating conditions would begin Sunday midday and continuing through Monday night (perhaps early Tuesday). Possibility of heavy rain with some tornadic activities could induce urban flooding and major landslides.

Here is the latest radar image from Central Weather Bureau and you can already see the outer rain bands beginning to move their way into Southern Taiwan. Moderate rains with some pockets of heavy rain that could bring floods, landslides, and some strong gusty winds embedded along these thunderstorms.

As for Okinawa, there is still some chance Nanmadol could turn northeastward while of east of Taiwan so you might want to keep monitoring this storm!

Here is my personal forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

TS Talas, on the other hand, is struggling to intensify due to dry air but it is still expected to intensify into a strong typhoon early next week. Still some major model disagreements but the consensus is to take Talas to the north. I’m still putting Southern Honshu under medium chance of seeing stormy conditions late next week. Please keep in mind though that this system still has a long way to go so expect tracks to shift constantly. Just keep monitoring and likewise, we will let you know if there are significant developments and changes with the track.

My personal forecast track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Finally you might have heard that Hurricane Irene is moving towards New York–where I am based. There is a high chance that my area will lose power by the time Irene gets here so I might not be able to post any videos or text updates. I will post any developments here regarding the status of updates. In case I lose power tomorrow, you can head to westernapacificweather.wordpress.com for the latest updates.

For tonight, I will probably put up a text update by 9pm.
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Issued (0845 UTC) 4:45pm PhT 082711

TY Nanmadol (Mina) | TS Talas Video Update August 27, 2011

This is our latest video update for Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina), Tropical Storm Talas, and Hurricane Irene.

Nanmadol's center has exited Luzon after making landfall there, in Cagayan. Hurricane Irene, meanwhile, weakens to a Cat 1 before making landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina and still forecast to plow through New York City area (visit 28storms.com for more on Irene).



I will put up a brief text update later at 4:30pm PhT.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 082711

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Update #15 [LANDFALL]

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) is now moving across the town of Sta. Ana in the northeastern part of Cagayan. Nanmadol/Mina made landfall about 2 hours ago near the town of Gonzaga. Maximum sustained winds have decreased now due to interaction with land. Estimates now at 200kph gusting to 250kph--Nanmadol is now a Category 3 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The typhoon continues to move VERY SLOWLY at 5-10kph.

As of 11am here are the Public Storm Warning Signals issued by PAGASA:

Signal #4: Northern Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal #3: Rest of Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, and Batanes Group of Islands

Signal #2: Northern Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Benguet, and La Union

Signal #1: Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Tarlac

We do expect Nanmadol to exit land by 12pm today. However, due to the very slow movement of the storm, typhoon force winds will continue for Cagayan, Isabela, and Calayan/Babuyan (and other areas under Signal #3-4) for the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm winds extend as far away as 150km away and those areas will expect stormy conditions for another 12-24 hours as well.

More discussion on the short term and medium term forecast coming up at 3pm today.
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Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 082711

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Special Update [LANDFALL]

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) is now very close to northeastern Cagayan--near Cabutuan Point. It's last location was 65km southeast of Sta. Ana or about 95km east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan.

Latest Public Storm Warning Signal as of 5am from PAGASA

Signal #4: Northern Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal #3: Rest of Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes Group of Islands

Signal #2: Northern Aurora, Quirino, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao

Signal #1: Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra.

Latest advisory has the winds decreasing a little bit. Furthermore, latest IR image now showing the eye filling a little bit (meaning it's not well-defined) due to the continued interaction with the topography of Luzon. Typhoon force winds can be felt as far away as 60km meaning towns in and around Sta. Ana will feel the strongest of winds for the next 6 hours. Tropical storm winds extend about 150-200km away from the center so provinces in the north including Ilocos Region will also feel strong gusty winds with intermittent moderate to heavy rains.

IR image from NRLMRY showing Nanmadol's eye moving closer to Luzon; you can also see some vigorous convective activity indicating the possibility of heavy rain and thunderstorms across Northern Luzon.

These strong stormy conditions will persist throughout Northern Luzon for the next 12 hours. Nanmadol/Mina will exit land by 10am today and then move across Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands later this afternoon.

Next update will be around 12pm today, followed by regular tropics update by 3pm this afternoon.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 082711

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Update #14 [LANDFALL]

Contrary to my forecast earlier, Typhoon Nanmadol will now MAKE LANDFALL NEAR STA. ANA, CAGAYAN! It was last located approximately 120km east southeast of Aparri, Cagyan; 100km northeast of Tuguegarao, or about 85km southeast of Sta. Ana. Nanmadol (Bagyong) has weakened slightly and is no longer a super typhoon. However, maximum sustained winds are still at 220kph with occasional gusts of up to 270kph. Right now, Nanmadol is moving very slowly west northwestward at 10kph.

This is my short-term forecast map (IR image from NRLMRY):

As you can see above, we still have that well-defined eye now nearing the Cagayan coast. It has become ragged over the past few hours due to the interaction with Luzon. Slight weakening will probably continue for the next 6 to 12 hours as it moves near or over land. Nanmadol/Mina will not stay over Luzon for very long. As you can see, my projected landfall 6am today just southeast of Sta. Ana, Cagayan (around 50km away). It will continue moving northwestward before turning northward. It should exit back into the water by 12pm today. It will then pass very closely across the Babuyan Group of Islands.

I will put up a special update by 6am today to give you the latest warnings from PAGASA which haven't come out yet.

My regular update will be around 3pm today.
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Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082711

STY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Update

This is our latest text update for the Pacific. We have put earlier our complete Video Update for Nanmadol and Talas. You can view that on the separate post here in our blog or on my YouTube page (rpweather).

Super Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to strengthen as it moves parallel east of Luzon. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. Nanmadol has begun to move north northwesterly which is certainly a good news for the residents in Isabela and Cagayan. As I have mentioned earlier, I don't think this typhoon will make landfall in Luzon. Nevertheless, because of its strength and proximity to the eastern coast, areas in Cagayan especially Sta. Ana could get some very powerful typhoon winds during the next 24 hours as Nanmadol makes its closest point of approach there. Rest of Eastern Coastal Sections in Cagayan and Isabela (for example Palanan) will also see some typhoon force winds throughout tonight. That is why PAGASA have raised Signal #3 for these areas. PAGASA will update their Signal Warning list by 5pm today so please go to their website HERE for the latest.

This is the latest Doppler Radar image from Baler Radar courtesy of PAGASA

As for the forecasts, computer models have shifted slightly westward on their medium-term track for Nanmadol. Most of them now takes the storm just east of Taiwan next week. Short term forecasts, on the other hand, will put Nanmadol less than 100km away from Sta. Ana, Cagayan tomorrow (Saturday). On my forecast track below, I still think Nanmadol will have one more round of intensification tonight which could put it into the Category 5 territory with winds of 280 to 330kph winds! Environment continues to be very favorable with negligible wind shear and very high ocean heat content.

By Sunday, I am expecting a slight weakening due to a possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) as evidenced by a recent Microwave image (please see my video for details on this). However, this will still likely be a Category 3 typhoon by the time it gets closer to Taiwan.

I still don't want to forecast beyond day 3 mainly due to the many uncertainties and inconsistencies among models and the environment. Direct cyclone interaction with Talas might be less significant than we thought. In that case Nanmadol could head further north than our forecast. Another factor is the strength of the Subtropical Ridge south of Japan which has been steering our Typhoon for the past few days. If it keeps on being strong, it could steer Nanmadol towards Taiwan! There are still lots of possibilities obviously but I would say that areas from Taiwan to Okinawa have their chances increasing for possibly seeing some stormy conditions sometime next week.

Tropical Storm Talas

And now to Talas. The storm continues to slowly develop with winds remaining around 85kph gusting to 110kph. This is an average of wind estimates from JTWC and JMA which have quite a substantial discrepancy. Talas has begun to turn to the north at a slow speed of 10kph. As you can see in our map above, Talas will likely continue its northward track for the next 3 days. Beyond that is still a big mystery. Conditions will remain favorable to allow Talas to intensify to a typhoon and as you can see on our map, I am giving it a chance of becoming a Category 2 by Monday. Areas at risk for potentially seeing effects from Talas would be the southern and eastern areas of Honshu, particularly the Kanto region. Anyone living here will want to carefully monitor the progress of this storm. Timing of effects is around late next week so still have lots of time for significant changes.

Wide IR view of the Western Pacific from NOAA

You can see Nanmadol through its well-defined eye as well as the massive circulation and cloud formation from TS Talas to the east.

We will have our next update by 12 midnight. If not, the next update will be around 5am tomorrow morning.
Stay safe!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 082611

STY Nanmadol (Mina) | TS Talas Video Update 082611

Here is our latest complete tropical update with in depth analysis of Super Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) just east of Luzon and Tropical Storm Talas. Forecasts from agencies and computer models are also included. A brief update on Hurricane Irene is also included (go to 28storms.com for more on this storm in the US).



We will post a text update by 5pm today (in about an hour) to have the latest updates including the 06z advisory from JTWC. I will also include my personal forecast for Nanmadol and Talas which I did not show in the video.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 082611

Super Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #9

Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) has rapidly intensified during the past 12 hours and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased significantly to 240kph gusting to 295kph. STY Nanmadol was last located approximately 135km east of Palanan, Isabela or about 170km east of Ilagan. The super typhoon has begun to move to the northwest albeit at a very slow pace of around 5kph.

Latest VIS image seen below (from NRLMRY) shows the very well-defined eye of Nanmadol/Mina just offshore of Luzon with the expanding and symmetrical Central Dense Overcast (CDO) now affecting the eastern coastal sections in Northern Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Torrential rains, gusty winds, and rough surf with storm surges are highly possible along these areas.

As of 11am today, PAGASA has raised Signal Warning #3 for Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan, and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Northern Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, and Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 is hoisted for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, and Abra.

We are still waiting from the 00z model package although we have put up our short-term forecast as seen above. Based on Nanmadol/Mina's track, we are thinking that it won't make landfall. It will have its closes point of approach less than 100km later tonight into tomorrow as it tracks just east of Cagayan. Typhoon-force winds of up to 120-150kph extend as far away as 80km from the eye. Tropical storm winds extend more than 150km away. Areas under Signal #3 will continue to see strong typhoon gusts for the next 12 to 24 hours. Please heed the warnings from your local officials as well as from PAGASA.

We will have a Video Update by 3pm today to be followed by a text update at approximately 4:30pm later today.
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Issued (0430 UTC) 12:30pm PhT 082611

TY Nanmadol (Mina) Update #8

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) is now rapidly intensifying east of Luzon. It was last located approximately 200km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 210kph gusting to 260kph. It is now a Category 4 Typhoon! Mina is still moving west northwestward at 10kph although latest image shows a substantial wobble to the north.

Typhoon Nanmadol/Mina has moved west farther than what we've thought. It's actually close enough to be picked up by Baler Radar, image here taken from PAGASA (as of 3am PhT).

 Follow PAGASA here on their FB Page!

We are still thinking Nanmadol will turn to the north. However, since it is now closer to Luzon, provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora will likely experience typhoon-force conditions for the next 12 hours. If the west northwesterly movement continues, the closes point of approach (CPA) to Cagayan would be less than 150km. The slow movement of Nanmadol/Mina will mean stormy conditions will persists for Northeast Luzon for at least 24 hours. Please always follow official warnings and forecasts from PAGASA and your local government.

As of 5am today: Signal #3 is up for Cagayan, Isabela, and Northern Aurora. Signal #2 for Batanes, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalina, Quirino, and the Rest of Aurora. Signal #1 for Ilocos Norte, Abra, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, and Nueva Ecija.

Latest forecasts from computer models still take Nanmadol northward towards Miyako-area just east of Taiwan. Most of them are still expecting a direct cyclone interaction with Talas by the middle of next week which will deflect Nanmadol's track to the east. Long range forecasts could take the typhoon south of Okinawa.

I will discuss more on these forecasts as well as updates on Tropcial Storm Talas later today at 3pm.
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Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082511

TY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Update

Note: This is the text version of our tropical update. We have posted a video update earlier. This update will contain mostly the same things discussed in the video, so if you have time please watch the Video.

Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to strengthen as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon. The typhoon was last located approximately 290km east of Casiguran, Aurora as well as 290km north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 150kph gusting to 180kph. TY Nanmadol is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Latest VIS and IR images show well defined eye with strong convective activity around it. The Central Dense Overcast that surrounds the center continues to expand and exhibit great organization as well. Wind shear continues to be light and westward, equatorward, and poleward outflow has been improving over the past couple of hours as well. Typhoon Nanmadol will be moving towards warm seas with high ocean heat content that will really help the system intensify significantly throughout the next 24 to 36 hours. It is very possible that Nanmadol will undergo a brief Rapid Intensification (RI) as it passes through these waters.

Lots of things to go through so let's begin!

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina)

As for the track, Nanmadol has been moving westward farther and longer than what we have previously thought. For those in Luzon, it looks very eery and threatening. Fortunately, we don't really expect the typhoon to barrel towards Luzon. A trough over Southeastern China should slowly lift Nanmadol towards the north. However, it is highly likely that the eastern sections of Luzon could feel tropical storm force winds for the next 1 to 2 days. Provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora are the places that could see some of the strongest winds. Heavy rain will also be a factor for these areas with amounts of 100-200mm in 24 hours.

Based on these developments, PAGASA has raised Public Signal Warning #2 for Northern Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Signal #1 is in effect for Rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecjia, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Calayan, Babuyan, and Batanes Group of Islands.

Now as far as future track goes, computer models remain in disagreement. Some models take Nanmadol towards Taiwan while some recurves it early enough to avoid Okinawa. As I have been saying all week, the track will depend significantly on a potential Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) or Fujiwhara effect with Talas. Trends among the models, though, have actually lessened the effect of this scenario. The track consensus have actually been shifting more to the north for the past day or so.

My forecast track takes Nanmadol just east of Cagayan by late Friday with a closest approach of around 200km. This means that provinces in the NE Luzon area have high chances of seeings tropical storm force sustained winds with possible typhoon force gusts (around 120kph). Rough surf and storm surge will also be a threat so please stay away from the ocean!

Favorable conditions should allow Nanmadol to really intensify for the next 2 days, perhaps becoming a Category 3 typhoon as early as Saturday.

I have also plotted my forecast for Tropical Storm Talas from the above map. As you can see it also has a chance of becoming a typhoon within the next 3 days. I don't think these two typhoons will be close enough to actually exert significant influence to each other. However, the massive circulation of Talas and the increasing strength of Nanmadol could still deflect the tracks of each other that is why I want the readers (YOU) to carefully pay attention to these two storms!

Tropical Storm Talas

Before I end, let me give you brief updates on Tropical Storm Talas. It was located approximately 780km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75kph gusting to around 100kph. Please keep in mind that these wind estimates are from the JMA. JTWC is also classifying this as a TS but with slightly less winds. Nevertheless, both agencies do expect Talas to become a typhoon this weekend. Forecasts take this storm north although how close this will get to Mainland Japan (Honshu) remains a mystery.

We will have another update at around 12am tonight (Philippine Time).

Also, I have created twitter page for Sa Gitna ng Bagyo. This is still in the early phase since I'm still experimenting with this new feature so updates may not come on time. Nevertheless, please follow me here:

@sagitnangbagyo

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 082511

TY Nanmadol (Mina) and TS Talas Video Update

This is the latest video update for Typhoon Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) and Tropical Storm Talas. Contains complete storm analysis, discussion on model and agency forecasts, as well as brief update on Hurricane Irene in the Atlantic.

If you are living from NE Luzon (Cagayan), to Taiwan, to Okinawa, all the way to Southern Japan, you need to pay attention to the updates and developments regarding this two systems as they could impact one or some of these areas down the road. The timing for Luzon would be around 24 to 36 hours. Some tropical storm force winds might be felt along the coast of Cagayan and Isabela. As for Taiwan, if Nanmadol comes close enough, you would see some stormy conditions beginning Saturday. Okinawa also has a high chance of seeing tropical storm winds, if not typhoon force, beginning Sunday and Monday. Timing for Southern Japan would be the middle of next week.



I will post a text update by 5pm today.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 082511

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina) Update #5

Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to intensify and is now a typhoon according to the JTWC. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph gusting to 150kph. Nanmadol/Mina continues to move westward at a very slow pace of 5kph. Mina was last located approximately 340km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 330km east of Casiguran, Aurora.

Latest microwave image is now showing an established eyewall. This feature is now beginning to be visible on the satellite. We do expect further intensification due to the very warm waters east of Luzon. Wind shear continues to be light (around 10kts).

Rains continue to be well offshore of the Philippines, despite the continued westward movement. High surf and violent seas will, however, continue affecting the eastern seaboard of Luzon including Cagayan Aurora, Isabela, Quezon, Polilio Island, and the Bicol Region. There could be occasional rains and gusty winds due to some outer rainbands making their way from Nanmadol's huge circulation.

Computer model forecasts continue to diverge significantly but I am becoming more confident on the following scenario: Typhoon Nanmadol will continue drifting east of Luzon. It is possible it will be close enough to the Philippines on Thursday that Signal Warning #1 might be needed. Rainfall amounts could be around 50-100mm.

By Thursday, it should begin turning northward as a cyclone developing west of the Marianas strengthens (Invest 97W). This future storm will then influence Nanmadol's track. There is increasing chance that Taiwan and Okinawa will feel some tropical storm conditions beginning Saturday. The exact track, however, is still up in the air. As I said, this will all depend on a developing system outside the PAR. Latest VIS and IR Image now showing a very huge cloud circulation with banding now occurring. It is possible that this system will be upgraded to a tropical depression tonight.

Please stay tuned for the latest update. We will have another update by around 12pm today. Hopefully, I will be able to put up a video by this afternoon; I apologize for not having done one yesterday.
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Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 082511

BLOG UPDATE

Unfortunately, I won't be able to put up Video Updates for today. For info on Nanmadol, please read our Text Update issued about an hour ago. We will have a Text Update later tonight (about 12 midnight Philippine Time). There is a chance that I might post a video tomorrow morning so please stay tuned right here.

Again, no Video Updates today; we apologize!

(09 UTC) 5pm PhT 082411

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Mina) Update #4

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Bagyong Mina) continues to intensify at a constant pace as it drifts across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 400km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 540km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Nanmadol/Mina has been drifting to the west at around 5kph.

Latest Visual Satellite and IR Imagery show an improving circulation with flaring convection right over the center. Cloud tops continue to be cold (around -80C). Recent microwave images also suggest that an eye might be forming on the mid-level circulation. The low-level center, on the other hand, is still slightly displaced to the northeast. Nevertheless, we still expect this intensification to continue, albeit at slow pace.

IR image from NOAA

The forecast for Nanmadol remains vague and uncertain as computer models continue to diverge and be inconsistent on their solutions. What is throwing the computers off is the possible direct-cyclone interaction of Fujiwhara effect this weekend between Nanmadol and a developing system northwest of Guam (Invest 97W). The trends tonight have actually lessened the effect of this DCI; some models actually take Nanmadol towards Taiwan!

Because of this, we have shifted our forecast track a little bit to the north. We now expect Nanmadol to continue moving northward longer than previously thought. We are still expecting this system to turn northeastward this weekend. Just a warning, though--we still have low confidence on this forecast track due to the numerous uncertainties regarding Nanmadol and 97W so please continue to stay with us for the latest updates and possible changes with the track. Obviously, anyone from Taiwan all the way to Kyushu/Shikoku needs to monitor this storm constantly. The projected timing (if it hits any of the areas mentioned) would be Sunday or Monday so we still have time to adjust the track accordingly.

We will have our Video Update up in about an hour. Our next Text Update will be around 12am tonight.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 082411

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Mina) Update #3

Tropical Storm Nanmadol  (Bagyong Mina) has quickly strengthened over the past 12 hours and continues to exhibit improving organization. It was last located approximately 450km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph gusting to 110kph. Nanmadol/Mina continues remain nearly stationary.

Latest IR images show improving organization and flaring convection. Cloud tops colder than -80C continue to blow near and around the low-level center. Wind shear and sea temperatures continue to be very favorable for further intensification.

Computer model forecasts continue to swing from one solution to another. Most of them do think Nanmadol will continue strengthening, perhaps reaching typhoon strength in 2 to 3 days' time. Much of the forecast still relies on the future development on 97W.

As for 97W, a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now has now been issued by the JTWC. This means 97W has a "HIGH" chance of becoming a cyclone within the next 24 hours. JMA has actually gone ahead and begun to classify 97W as a Tropical Depression.

The system remains west northwest of Guam with improved consolidation and convective actiivity throughout last nigh. We expect this to continue and should become a depression as early as today. This will have a direct influence on TS Nanmadol's future track so we really have to monitor both systems.

Next update will be around 3pm today.
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Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 082411

TS 14W (Mina) Video Update #1

Latest and first video update for Tropical Storm 14W or Bagyong Mina. Contains complete storm analysis as well as forecasts and computer model discussions. More update across the Pacific as well as brief update on the Atlantic basin and the Hurricane Irene (head to 28storms.com for more on Irene).



We will have our next TEXT update at 5am tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082311

Tropical Storm 14W (Mina) Update #2

Tropical Depression 14W (Bagyong Mina) has slightly intensified and is now a Tropical Storm. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS 14W/Mina remains quasi-stationary; still located about 400km northeast of Virac.

Latest Visual Satellite Imagery shows improving structure with low-level bands curving into the center. Convective activity, however, remains confined to the western half of the center. Recent IR image also showing new convective bursts occurring right over, and near, the center.

 IR Analysis (image from NOAA)

TS 14W continues to be in a very favorable environment with low wind shear, high SSTs, and good outflow. This should help the system to slowly intensify over the next few days.

However, there is somewhat low confidence with our forecast track right now. The crucial "ingredient" to our TS 14W's eventual track is a developing system west of Guam. Computer models have been consistent with the development of these two systems and an eventual direct cyclone interaction/Fujiwhara between them.

For now, we are forecasting TS 14W to continue moving very slowly in a northward direction. By 36 to 48 hours, we expect a tropical cyclone to develop near Guam which will then begin influencing TS 14W. In 2 to 3 days' time, 14W will turn to the northeast in response to this new cyclone. Based on the favorable conditions, there is a slight chance of 14W becoming a typhoon by Saturday.

Again, we have low confidence with this preliminary forecast and it will all depend on an expected Fujiwhara effect to happen later this week. Assuming no cyclones form near Guam, another scenario would be for TS 14W to continue moving northward, perhaps towards Taiwan but this is highly unlikely given the cluster of model solutions. As always, we advise you to keep checking our blog for the latest information on the tropics.

Our Video Update will be posted in about an hour or so.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 082311

Tropical Depression 14W (Mina) Update #1

Tropical Depression 14W (Bagyong Mina) has really consolidated overnight while east of the Philippines. The center was last located approximately 390km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 45kph gusting to 65kph. TD 14W/Mina is moving north northeastward at around 10kph.

Recent IR image continues to show vigorous convective activity, particularly on the western side of the center. Wind shear and sea temperatures continue to be favorable for further development. 14W could intensify into a tropical storm within 24 hours.

Solutions from computer models continue to widely vary. What we do know now is that TD 14W won't make landfall in the Philippines; it will move generally to the northeast. The forecasts beyond 3 days, however, is still up in the air. A developing monsoon gyre with a circulation just west of Guam will greatly influence 14W's future track. This feature will, of course, have to be tracked.

Next update will be 3pm today.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 082311

Tropical Update ("Mina")

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert remains in effect for Invest 96W which is already a tropical depression according to JMA and PAGASA.

Invest 96W or Tropical Depression Mina was last located approximately 460km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum winds remain around 40kph. 96W has been moving slowly north northwestward. Latest visual satellite imagery depicts a system that is still largely unorganized with most convection displaced west of the circulation center.

VIS image from NRLMRY

Invest 96W remains in an area of weak to moderate wind shear although that has been decreasing over the past 6 hours. Ouflow remains good, helping the system to ventilate. As mentioned at the top, a TCFA remains hoisted so there is still HIGH chance for 96W to fully develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

The forecast for 96W is for it to move northeastward in the coming days, totally avoiding a landfall in the Philippines. It will enhance rainshowers throughout the country though especially on the Eastern Seaboard. Likewise, as it continues to strengthen, it will also begin to enhance the SW Monsoon once again bringing widespread precipitation especially across Western Luzon and Visayas.

Moving on to the other system, Invest 95W remains very weak and undeveloped as it drifts near the Iwo To islands well south of Japan. The low-level circulation center remains fully exposed as wind shear continues to be high (around 30kts). JTWC still giving it a "MEDIUM" chance for development while JMA is still classifying it as a weak TD.

Tropical Forecast

There are still a lot of uncertainties with regards to the forecast for the tropics. Based on latest data, I do think 96W will develop into a tropical storm within 2 to 4 days. What is tricky here is the solutions from numerous computer models of two circulations developing in the Pacific this week: Invest 96W and another near Guam. I don't really think 95W will develop into anything significant. The monsoon trough situated near the Marianas will be the likely origin of another tropical system.If we do get two systems this week, there is a good chance of direct cyclone interaction or Fujiwhara effect between this two systems, making the forecast very uncertain. What is looking more likely, though, is that Okinawa could see some tropical storm conditions this weekend. Again, this is still all up in the air and always stay tuned right here for the latest updates and forecasts.

We will have our next Tropical Update by 5am tomorrow (PhT).
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 082211

Tropical Update ("Mina")

There is a high chance for a tropical cyclone forming east of the Philippines within the next 24 hours.

Invest 96W was last located approximately 320km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are around 40kph with a minimum pressure of 1004mb. Invest 96W continues to develop slowly with banding now beginning to form on the microwave. IR imagery also continues to depict numerous convective bursts, especially on the western side of the circulation.

IR image from NRLMRY

JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for 96W which means it has a "HIGH" chance of becoming a cyclone within 24 hours. JMA has already upgraded this to a Tropical Depression. Same thing for PAGASA which has named this system Tropical Depression Mina.

Computer models continue to develop 96W into a strong tropical storm by the middle of next week. It is not forecast to make landfall in the Philippines although as it is developing close to the eastern coast, areas such as the Bicol Region, Visayas particularly Samar and Leyte, could get heavy rains and gusty winds throughout today.

Please stay tuned and also always listen to your local authorities for official warnings.

We will have another update at 3pm today.
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Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 082211

Tropical Update

Invests 95W and 96W continue to develop while a new low pressure has popped up: Invest 97W.

Given the latest data, there is a potential for a tropical cyclone development within the next two days. Among the three systems we're watching, 96W has the highest chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone in a few days.

But we begin first with Invest 95W. This LPA is still struggling and its low-level center has become fully exposed due to the wind shear that has increased this past 24 hours. Westerly shear of 20 to 30kts is displacing the main convection east and southeast of the center making it hard for 95W to really consolidate and intensify.

Nevertheless, JMA is still classifying 95W as a weak Tropical Depression while the JTWC is keeping its "MEDIUM" rating for the said system. Computer models, on the other hand, don't really forecast 95W to get stronger anymore, with the exception of the CMC. With that said, 95W could still develop into an organized tropical depression if wind shear relaxes in the area so we will still continue watching this.

Now onto Invest 96W. It was last located approximately 460km east southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Visual satellite image shows improving mid-level presentation with clouds spinning around the center. There is also healthy convective activity, especially on the northern quadrant. An ASCAT pass earlier this morning suggests the possibility of a closed circulation with winds ranging from 20 to 35kph.

JTWC is still rating 96W as "MEDIUM". Computer models also in good agreement with the development of 96W. The general consensus is for 96W to move northward, avoiding a direct landfall in the Philippines. Potential targets right now would be the area from Northern Taiwan all the way to Southern Japan (Kyushu).

As we have mentioned at the top of this post, a new Invest has popped up along the monsoon trough. Invest 97W is still largely disorganized although a couple of computer models show this system developing next week, alongside 96W. The ECMWF, in particular, is showing the possibility of two typhoons next weekend, that are interacting with each other via the Fujiwhara effect. Confidence in this solution is still low due to it being far out.

The Philippines, meanwhile, will continue experiencing scattered thunderstorms and rainshowers. Highest chances of seeing rain will be in Visayas and Mindanao due to the ITCZ as well as rainbands caused by the developing LPA-96W.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 082111

Tropical Update w/ Video

We are now watching two areas for potential tropical cyclone development: Invest 95W north of the Marianas and 96W near Palau.

Invest 95W has a partially exposed low-level circulation center. The convection is slightly displaced to the east because of some light to moderate wind shear in the area. Computer models aren't really too keen with the development of 95W with just a few models forecasting it to become a tropical storm. Nonetheless, JTWC has upgraded 95W's chances to "MEDIUM". JMA, on the other hand, has actually upgraded this into a Tropical Depression; it is not, however, putting 95W on their Tropical Cyclone page.

General forecast for 95W is for it to slowly develop over the next two days, perhaps becoming a tropical storm as early as Monday. It should move northward and could brush the Kanto Region of Japan by late next week.

Invest 96W, meanwhile, is still on the early stages of development with a slightly elongated circulation and the whole system still being embedded within that monsoon trough. We have seen an increase in convective activity though this past few hours which could indicate a more robust development for 96W. It is in an area of high sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind shear of 10-15kts. Palau is reporting 1009mb of pressure and winds of around 20-30kph. We expect 96W to slowly develop over the next 2-3 days and move slowly northward.

Computer models are in somewhat good agreement with 96W's development for next week. Most of them show the system to become a tropical storm by Monday or Tuesday and could threaten Okinawa area by next weekend. But again, this still uncertain and expect wide changes with the forecast.

 Latest IR image from NOAA

Tropical Update Video

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 082011

Tropical Update

We have some important updates today. A low pressure area has now formed near the Marianas: Invest 95W. The cluster of convection is located northeast of Guam (700km). The Visual Satellite image shows a fairly robust system with good mid-level presentation and with a slightly elongated low-level circulation. IR image shows convective activity is looking good as well with some "hot tower" firing off near the center.

Invest 95W is in a very good environment with weak wind shear, good outflow, and high sea surface temperatures which should allow it to slowly develop over the next few days. JTWC is currently rating this LPA as "LOW". If it does develop, it should move generally to the north towards Southern Japan around the western periphery of the Subtropical Ridge centered over the North Pacific.

Computer models are kinda split right now (we'll discuss the models later in this post) in terms of 95W's development but the latest trends suggest we could be seeing our next tropical system in the next 3 to 5 days.

Image below (NRLMRY) shows the Western Pacific Basin and the location of Invest 95W, as well as the ITCZ.

SW Monsoon still affecting the Indochina dropping 50-150mm of rain in 24 hours. The Philippines, on the other hand, will experience scattered showers with isolated pockets of heavy rain. Radar images from Subic and Hinatuan (PAGASA) showing scattered rain showers. A weak disturbance just east of Luzon is also enhancing some precipitation in the Northern Luzon area. Expect light to moderate amounts of rain for the next 24 to 36 hours (50-100mm).

Now into the computer models:

The latest global model suite (00z) shows 2 scenarios as we head into next week; discussed below (image from NRLMRY):

The first one (Red) is supported by GFS, the CMC, NOGAPS (somewhat), and the FIM (an experimental model) - shows a cyclone forming near the Marianas (could be 95W) moving north towards S. Japan with another cyclone developing near that same area and moving generally northward as well.

The second one (Blue) is being shown by the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET... they limit the development of 95W and instead focus on another vortex near Yap, bringing it towards the Taiwan-Okinawa area. Euro and NOGAPS also shows a potential cyclone development north of CNMI at the end of their respective runs.

Whatever scenario pans out, looks like the models are indeed painting a more active W. Pacific by next week.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081911

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific is still quiet in terms of cyclone activity and we still don't have a genuine threat right now. The computer models, however, are slowly converging into the idea of a possible storm forming this weekend or early next week outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Most Global Models still have major differences although it should be noted that at least 4 of the models we use show some kind of a tropical storm by next week. The eventual track, of course, is still very much up in the air.

Right now, just scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Philippines due to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone affecting the country. Moderate rain also lingering in Guangdong and Hainan Provinces in Southern China bringing 50 to 100mm of rain in 24 hours. Disturbed weather in the middle of the W. Pacific (around Marianas) due to converging winds along the monsoon trough. This is where the next cyclone could form as highlighted in the Satellite Analysis below (image from NOAA):.

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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081811

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific remains quiet in terms of cyclone activity (Invest 94W from yesterday has dissipated). Computer models, however, are starting to pick up some potential activity in 3 o 5 days' time. But since there are no invests nor defined LPA's, we'll put the chances to LOW for now. Much of Tropical Cyclone activity is currently centered in the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic Basins.

Heavy rain continue to linger near Hainan and Guangdong provinces (rainfall amounts of 50-100mm in 24 hours), wthile the ITCZ continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for parts of the Philippines.

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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 081711

Tropical Update

While we currently don't have any tropical storms here in the Western Pacific, we are still watching two areas for potential cyclone development this week.

First off, we have Invest 94W near Chuuk. This low pressure area is still in the early stages of development. Weak to moderate wind shear (10-20kts) exists near 94W. Computer models are hinting at a slow development over the next 2 to 3 days. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this disturbance so please always check back here for the latest.

Another area that we are watching is a disturbance over the South China Sea. This low pressure area/mesoscale convective system is exhibiting some low-level circulation. IR images also showing vigorous convective activity within that center. Radar from Hainan showing some curved banding of rainclouds moving northwestward. If direction and speed does not change, this blob of convection could reach Hainan later tonight. Based on radar and IR imagery, Hainan and Guangdong Provinces could get widespread moderate to heavy rain. JMA and JTWC are not mentioning this system at all but we'll still watch this in case the agencies consider this as a tropical system.

Meanwhile, numerous afternoon thunderstorms continue to affect large parts of the Philippines. This storms could bring as much as 50mm of rain in just six hours which could trigger flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas as well as urban flooding in major cities. ITCZ is also affecting much of Visayas and Mindanao bringing cloudy skies with medium chances of rain.

IR Analysis (image taken from NOAA)

We will have another tropical update tomorrow for details on 94W and the Western Pacific as a whole.
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Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 081611