Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #15 (FINAL)

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves away from Japan. The system was last located approximately 400km southeast of Sapporo or about 630km northeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 65pkh with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 70kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong is nearing the extra-tropical transition. Convection is asymmetrical, circulation center has elongated, and frontal boundaries have begun to develop. Wind speeds of up to 80kph are still being reported especially along the coast of Hokkaido but that should weaken later today.

Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today as a mid-latitude cyclone. The remaining rains in Northern Honshu and Hokkaido should end later today as the system moves into the North Pacific.

This is our Final Update for Tropical Storm Vongfong. There are no other tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific as of this time.

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #14

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now beginning to exit the island of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 440km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 50kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong taking on the characteristics of a frontal system. Circulation center has become elongated and difficult to discern on the satellite. Convection has also weakened significantly and is mainly found on the northern periphery. Winds have also weakened although reports of up to 80kph are still present especially along the coast.

Radar Image from JMA

Aside from the winds, widespread light to moderate rains have moved north towards the Tohoku Region in Honshu as well as in the island of Hokkaido. Much of Japan received 50 to as much as 200mm of rainfall due to Vongfong. We are expecting around 50 to 100mm to fall today across Northern Japan.

For the latest radar images, click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today. It is forecast to also become fully extra-tropical within the next 12 hours. Rains across Northern Honshu and Hokkaido will continue this morning but should taper off this afternoon. Rest of Japan should also expect clearing weather today.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #13 (LANDFALL)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101314
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Vongfong has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 150km northeast of Kagoshima or about 430km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Vongfong is moving east northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong continuing to deteriorate as it moves across the Japanese Islands. The center is becoming free of convection as dry air continues to get mixed into the circulation. Vongfong is forecast to become a fully extra-tropical cyclone by tomorrow as it moves into the North Pacific Ocean.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Heavy rains associated with Vongfong are now moving eastward into Shikoku and the regions of Chugoku, Kinki, and Chubu in the island of Honshu. Rainfall rates of up to 60mm/hr have been recorded in some places. Up to 300mm of rainfall is possible in many areas, especially in mountainous regions. Residents are advised to coordinate with their local officials and always follow their warnings and advisories!

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the east northeast today. It will pass near the cities of Osaka, Tokyo, and Nagoya later this afternoon bringing inclement weather in these metro areas. Vongfong will continue rapidly weakening as it moves across Honshu but the threat of heavy rains will continue for Kanto and the Tohoku Regions later tonight. By tomorrow (Tuesday), Vongfong is forecast to exit into the North Pacific Ocean as a extra-tropical cyclone.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Vongfong Update #12

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 101214
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Typhoon Vongfong continues to move closer to the island of Kyushu. The system was last located approximately 300km southwest of the city of Kagoshima. Maximum sustained winds are down to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to weaken and become asymmetrical. Wind field has also spread unevenly. Further analysis suggest Vongfong is beginning to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, stormy conditions will still be a threat for Mainland Japan in the next 2 days.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing bands of light to moderate rains already affecting Kyushu and even pushing as far east already as Shikoku. Winds of up to 100kph are also starting to be reported along the coastal areas in the region. High waves of up to 5 meters are also possible and the JMA has issued a plethora of weather warnings for different prefectures in the region.

For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Vongfong will continue to weaken and should become a Tropical Storm before it makes landfall in Kyushu tomorrow morning (Monday). It will move near Kagoshima, cross Kyushu, and then move into Shikoku. It will also move near the cites of Osaka, Kyoto, and Nagoya by Monday afternoon and evening. We expect a general 100 to 200mm of rain to fall across the islands over the next 24 hours. Vongfong will then become completely extra-tropical by Tuesday as it moves into Northern Honshu and eventually exit into the North Pacific Ocean.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Vongfong Update #11

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 101214
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Typhoon Vongfong has weakened to a Category 1 as it moves away from the Ryukyu Islands. The center of Vongfong was last located approximately 190km north northwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection has weakened around Vongfong's circulation center. Dry air from the north and increasing wind shear are inducing some quick weakening with the core beginning to erode. Nevertheless, strong winds especially near the center and light to moderate rains will still pose a threat to Kyushu.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image shows rain showers are ending across Amami and nearby islands in the Ryukyus. Meanwhile, rains are beginning to move north into Kyushu. Winds of up to 180kph were recorded in Okinawa last night along with periods of heavy rains. Some communities are without power right now due to the stormy conditions.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Weather conditions across the Ryukyu Islands will continue to improve today with the stormy weather shifting north towards the island of Kyushu. Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Storm by tonight and make landfall in Kyushu by tomorrow morning (Monday). Strong winds, high waves, and widespread rains will threaten the region over the next 24 to 48 hours. Vongfong will move northeastward across Shikoku and Honshu moving near the cities of Osaka and Nagoya.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #10 (VIDEO)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 101014
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Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) has finally weakened below Super Typhoon threshold but remains a powerful and dangerous Category 4 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 500km south southeast of Okinawa or about 770km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 230kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving northward at 15kph.

Please watch our Video Update below for more in-depth information and forecast for Typhoon Vongfong:

We'll have another update tonight. If you live in Okinawa or nearby islands, finish your preparations now! We expect stormy conditions to begin tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #9

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 101014
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Super Typhoon Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) continues to gradually weaken as it moves closer to the Southern Japanese Islands. The eye of Vongfong was last located approximately 570km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 780km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Vongfong is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Vongfong remains intact. However, it has shrunk and become more rugged over the past 24 hours--a sign of weakening inner core. Vongfong is also undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which will eventually expand the wind field--not so good news for the Japanese Islands. However, increasing wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce steady weakening of Vongfong over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We are becoming more certain that Super Typhoon Vongfong will move near the islands of Okinawa and Amami-Oshima by Saturday and into Sunday. Typhoon-force winds of up to 180kph are possible in the islands. We expect stormy conditions to start tonight and will last through Sunday. The worst conditions are likely to occur Saturday morning and into early Sunday morning.

Aside from the damaging winds, torrential rains and high waves will threaten the Ryukyu Islands as well. Residents are advised to prepare to evacuate if they live near the coast. In general, everyone should be finalizing their emergency preparations today.

After the Ryukyu Islands, Vongfong is forecast to eventually move into the island of Kyushu as a Category 1 Typhoon. It will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves into Shikoku and Honshu but will still bring widespread heavy rains in the region. We are also expecting Vongfong to move near the city of Osaka by Monday afternoon and will likely bring stormy conditions in the area.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #8 (VIDEO)

Issued (04 UTC)12pm PhT 100914
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Super Typhoon Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) continues to move slowly northwestward across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Vongfong was last located approximately 800km south southeast of Okinawa or about 830km east southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds remain at 270kph with gusts of up to 325kph. Super Typhoon Vongfong is moving northwestward at 10kph.

Please watch our in-depth Video Update below for the latest information, analysis, and forecasts for Vongfong.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
The forecast track above is from our update this morning.

We'll have another update for Super Typhoon Vongfong later today.

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #7

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 100914
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Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) has slightly weakened overnight but remains a strong and dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye of Vongfong was last located approximately 830km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 850km east southeast of Basco, Batanes, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are down to 270kph with gusts of up to 325kph. Super Typhoon Vongfong is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Vongfong remains well-defined and symmetrical. Convection around the periphery and the radial outflow remains strong as well. However, cloud tops have slightly warmed and we are seeing slight impingement on the western section of the circulation. Wind shear is starting to increase and the sea surface temperatures in the area are getting less favorable for cyclone development. These factors will contribute to further weakening of Vongfong in the coming days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
We have shifted our forecast track to the west and now think that Super Typhoon Vongfong will move close to the Southern Japanese Islands, including Okinawa. Stormy conditions are forecast to begin Friday evening and lasting into Sunday evening. The worst conditions are forecast to happen around Saturday morning and into the evening. Typhoon-force winds of up to 160kph are possible across Okinawa and nearby islands. Amami-Oshima will likely see similar winds Saturday evening and into Sunday. There will also be the threat of torrential rains and high waves.

Even though Vongfong will have weakened to a Category 3 typhoon at this time, this system will still be dangerous and destructive. By Monday, the system will threaten Kyushu, Shikoku, and Western Honshu. Vongfong will be weakening to a Category 1 Typhoon and eventually to a Tropical Storm around this time frame.

We urge everyone living in the region to please prepare now! Stock up on food and water, and bring loose objects inside. Always heed the warning of your local officials and seek shelter if told to.

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #6 (VIDEO)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 100814
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Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) has maintained its Category 5 Super Typhoon strength as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 980km south southeast from the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Vongfong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

Watch our latest Video Update below for the latest information and forecast for Vongfong:

For reference, here is the Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!) that we issued this morning:

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong) Update #5

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 100814
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Super Typhoon Vongfong (Bagyong Ompong) becomes the strongest cyclone in the Pacific since Haiyan (Yolanda) last year. The system has rapidly intensified into the upper-reaches of Category 5 strength this morning. Vongfong was last located approximately 1,040km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,140k east of Aparri, Cagayan in the Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Vongfong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the perfectly symmetrical eye of Vongfong surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Strong inflow feeder bands and excellent radial outflow also manifest themselves along the periphery of the typhoon. Vongfong will likely reach its peak today, far from land thankfully, and should start to slowly weaken as it turns northward tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our updated forecast track for Super Typhoon Vongfong remains generally the same from yesterday. We still expect the Vongfong to turn northward away from the Philippines. Furthermore, we expect the system to gradually weaken as it heads north. The critical question remains how close Vongfong will move to the Ryukyu Islands, especially Okinawa. The consensus among the computer models is showing a track just east of Okinawa by Saturday.

Out track is positioned closely to the model consensus. Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands should expect stormy conditions beginning Friday and lasting into Sunday. The worst conditions for Okinawa will be around Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. Typhoon force winds of up to 120kph are possible with Amami likely seeing stronger winds. By Sunday and Monday, the stormy conditions will shift northward towards the island of Kyushu.

While we still have 2 to 3 days to prepare, we urge our readers across the Japanese Islands to start making some preparations. Always follow the warnings of your local officials and stay on top of this storm.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoong Vongfong Update #4

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 100714
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Vongfong has rapidly intensified into a Category 3 Typhoon this morning as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows an well-defined eye has now formed over Vongfong's center. This eye is surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Furthermore, radial outflow has improved dramatically over the past 24 hours. The weakened wind shear has really helped with the intensification tremendously. Those factors, together with the warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea, will help Vongfong intensify a bit more over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models remain closely spaced with the solutions for Vongfong. We have shifted our track slightly to the west to account for the continued westward movement this morning. However, our general philosophy remains the same. Vongfong is to move west northwestward today and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tonight (earning the local name 'Bagyong Ompong' from PAGASA). It will also continue intensifying, perhaps becoming a Category 4 by tomorrow and even a Super Typhoon shortly thereafter.

By Thursday, we expect Vongfong to take a turn to the north as it rounds the Subtropical Ridge. The timing of the turn will dictate how close the typhoon will get to the Ryukyu Islands. Right now, model consensus is taking Vongfong near the Japanese Islands, including Okinawa, beginning Saturday and into Sunday.

Residents living in these islands are urged to closely monitor the progress of Vongfong in the coming days.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Vongfong Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 100614
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Typhoon Vongfong has slightly intensified this morning as it moves away from the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 340km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Vongfong and its associated rain bands are beginning to pull away from Guam and the Marianas Islands. The region received nearly 150mm of rain and winds of up to 120kph battered the islands as Vongfong moved through swiftly overnight. Weather conditions in the region will continue to get better as the typhoon moves away.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to continue heading generally northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days. Wind shear should decrease and the warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea is forecast to promote continued intensification. Vongfong will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be named "Bagyong Ompong" by PAGASA. However, we are not expecting Vongfong to directly affect the Philippines.

By Wednesday, we are expecting Vongfong to start turning to the north as it rounds the Subtropical Ridge. This will keep the system away from the Philippines. By this time, we are also expecting Vongfong to intensify to a Category 4 typhoon. While it is still too early to say where the typhoon will end up, current model projections show Vongfong possibly affecting Japan this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Vongfong Update #2

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 100514
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Vongfong has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The storm center was last located approximately 580km east southeast of Guam or about 560km southeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Vongfong is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Guam, Rota, T inian, and Saipan. Furthermore, Guam has now been placed under Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 (TCCOR 2). Residents are urged to complete all preparations for the incoming typhoon.Damaging winds are expected to start occurring within 24 hours. Always listen and heed the warnings of your local officials!

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Vongfong moving closer to the Mariana Islands. A small eye is also starting to develop as the system continues to intensify. Due to the favorable environmental conditions in the region, we expect Vongfong to continue intensify and could even become a Category 2 Typhoon before it moves across the Mariana Islands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Vongfong will continue to move generally west northwestward. It is forecast to pass between Guam and Saipan and move near the island of Rota later this evening. Tropical Storm winds and rains will start affecting the islands later this afternoon and will last through the morning hours of tomorrow (Monday). Winds of up to 100kph are possible in Saipan and Guam while strong typhoon winds of up to 160kph are possible in Rota. Rainfall amounts of up to 200mm are also possible as the system moves through.

Typhoon Vongfong will also continue intensifying over the next few days as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Computer models are in good agreement with the track for Vongfong over the next 3 days and we have medium confidence with our forecast track above.

If you live in Guam or in other parts of the Mariana Islands, now is the time to prepare and take shelter as the system is forecast to pass overnight. We'll continue to have updates over the next few hours. Stay safe!

Tropical Depression 19W Update #1 (w/ VIDEO)

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 100314
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Watch our latest Video Update for in-depth analysis and forecast for both Typhoon Phanfone and Tropical Depression 19W.

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed near the Caroline Islands this morning. Tropical Depression 19W was last located approximately 170km northeast of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 19W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest visible satellite imagery showing TD 19W in its early stages of development. However, strong convective activity and tight banding are already occurring as the system takes advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. Continued intensification is likely over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 19W will continue moving generally west northwestward and could become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. It could even reach typhoon strength by Sunday and Monday. TD 19W could also move near Saipan and the Mariana Islands around that time frame with strong winds and heavy rains affecting the region including Guam.

We'll have another update tomorrow.