Tropical Depression Chan-Hom Update #16 (FINAL)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 071315
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Tropical Depression Chan-Hom is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it continues to move across the Korean Peninsula. Maximum winds are between 40kph and 60kph. Chan-Hom is moving north northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a dissipating storm that is taking the characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Rains are ending across the region but not before dropping nearly 400mm in some areas, especially in North Korea.

Weather conditions should improve today for the area and Chan-Hom is no longer expected to be a threat. This is the final update for this system.

We'll have an update on Typhoon Nangka, which is over the Philippine Sea, later tonight.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #15

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 071215
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Chan-Hom has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it nears the Korean Peninsula. The storm center was last located approximately 160km west of Seoul, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Chan-Hom is moving north northeastward at 35kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to weaken as it rapidly tracks to the northeast. The low-level circulation center is now fully exposed and any convection along the southwestern quadrant has disappeared. Nevertheless, Chan-Hom is still bringing gusty winds of up to 80kph along the western coast of South Korea.

Radar Image from KMA

 
Aside from the winds, rainfall accumulations of up to 200mm were still being reported up and down the peninsula. Latest radar image above shows much of the rains are now over North Korea. We expect rains to linger through tomorrow before slowly dissipating and/or moving eastward.

For the latest radar images and forecasts for South Korea, please click HERE (KMA Website)

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom will continue tracking quickly to the northeast and should make landfall in North Korea in the next 2 to 3 hours. It is forecast to rapidly weaken and eventually dissipate as it crosses the peninsula.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Chan-Hom Update #14

Issued (1630 UTC) 1230am PhT 071215
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Typhoon Chan-Hom continues to move close to the Chinese Coast this evening bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the region. The storm center was last located approximately 150km east of Shanghai, China or about 770km southwest of Seoul, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are down to 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the center of Chan-Hom moving close to the populous city of Shanghai. The system has weakened further this evening with convective activity decreasing and dry air starting to wrap around the circulation. However, good outflow is slowing down the weakening. Either way, the biggest threat for the areas affected is the widespread flooding due to the rain bands of Chan-Hom.

Radar from CMA

 
Latest radar from Eastern China shows bands of light to moderate rains are moving north now towards the provinces of Shandong and Jiangsu. Many areas in Zhejiang received well over 200mm of rain with news reports showing widespread flooding in the region. Even though not shown in the image above, parts of the Korean Peninsula are also starting to receive rains brought by Chan-Hom. The region expected to receive its own share of heavy rains in the next 24 to 48 hours.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

Typhoon Chan-Hom will continue to move quickly across the Yellow Sea this evening with the potential landfall in North Korea either late this evening (Sunday) or early Monday morning. The entire peninsula is forecast to receive anywhere from 50 to as much as 250mm of rainfall in the next two days. Chan-Hom will rapidly weaken after landfall and dissipate as it exits into the Sea of Japan.

Typhoon Chan-Hom Update #13

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 071115
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Typhoon Chan-Hom is now nearing the coast of Zhejiang Province in Eastern China. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 320km south-southeast of Shanghai, China or about 560km west northwest of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a Red Typhoon Warning for Zhejiang while Yellow Typhoon Warnings are issued for Jiangsu and Shanghai.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Chan-Hom nearing the Chinese Coast. Convection has weakened and the eyewall has also eroded especially along the northwestern quadrant. However, the eye itself remains intact and there is still plenty of outflow which is slowing down the intensification. Despite the weakening, strong winds of up to 180kph have been reported along the coast. Chan-Hom is still a highly dangerous typhoon and will still be a threat across the region.

Radar Image from CMA

 
Latest radar image out of Eastern China shows the eye of Chan-Hom nearing the coast. Bands of light to moderate rains have begun impacting parts of Zhejiang last night. Many areas have already recorded more than 200mm of rainfall with the potential for 100mm more falling throughout today. Even Shanghai (red star on the image above) is already seeing the rainbands from Chan-Hom.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

Typhoon Chan-Hom will continue moving northwestward and should brush the coast in the next few hours. It will be moving near Shanghai later this evening, weakening down to a Category1 typhoon by that time. With that said, strong winds of up to 120kph and heavy rains should still be expected across Shanghai and nearby areas through tomorrow morning. Chan-Hom will, then, turn northeastward towards the Yellow Sea and eventually the Korean Peninsula.

We'll have another update later tonight. Please heed the warnings of your local officials and as always, stay safe!

Typhoon Chan-Hom Update #12

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 071015
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Typhoon Chan-Hom is now moving across the East China Sea as it heads towards the Zhejiang Province. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 440km west northwest of Okinawa, Japan or about 450km southeast of Shanghai, China. Maximum sustained winds are at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving northwestward at 25kph.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a Red Typhoon Warning for Zhejiang, Orange Typhoon Warning for Shanghai,  and Yellow Typhoon Warnings for Fujian and Jiangsu.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Chan-Hom has become better organized compared to yesterday. Convective activity has also become more consolidated as it has managed to stave off the dry air that was plaguing development in the past few days. Typhoon Chan-Hom moved near the Ryukyu Islands earlier this morning bringing wind gusts exceeding 180kph, along with high waves and heavy rains. Rain bands will linger across the islands, including Okinawa through this evening.

Typhoon Chan-Hom will continue moving northwestward and is forecast to make landfall in Zhejiang Province of Eastern China tomorrow morning (Saturday). Damaging winds of up to 180kph are possible along with widespread heavy rains. Chan-Hom will then turn northward and could directly move through Shanghai by Saturday evening as a Category 1 Typhoon. The metro region is forecast to experience typhoon conditions through Sunday morning.

If you live in the areas mentioned, including Shanghai, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Stay safe!

Typhoon Chan-Hom (Falcon) Update #11

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070915
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Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) has slightly intensified into a Category 2 Typhoon as it nears the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 400km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 780km east northeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm and High Waves Warning for Okinawa and nearby islands. Meanwhile, a Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) Level 2 have been implemented for Kadena Air Force Base. 

Please consult JMA for the latest official warnings and bulletins by clicking HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows slight improvements regarding Chan-Hom's structure. The eyewall is more defined and convective activity has become more consolidated near the core. However, the large size of Chan-Hom's circulation continue to ingest dry air limiting the intensification. With that said, the large circulation is also translating to huge wind field. In fact, parts of Okinawa are already seeing wind gusts of up to 100kph. We expect winds to increase in intensity tonight along with the threat of light to moderate rains brought by Chan-Hom's outer rain bands.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Typhoon Chan-Hom will continue moving northwestward over the next few days, intensifying along the way and should reach Category 3 intensity by tomorrow. We expect the center of Chan-Hom to pass near the islands of Miyako-jima and Ishigaki-jima tonight and tomorrow. Winds of up to 160kph along with heavy rains and high waves are possible in these islands through the next 36 hours. Even Okinawa will see some stormy conditions tonight and into tomorrow.

Typhoon Chan-Hom is forecast to make landfall in the Fujian-Zheiiang Border by Saturday morning. Dangerous storm conditions are expected in these regions. Chan-Hom will then turn northward and will pass near Shanghai by Sunday morning bringing stormy conditions in the metro region this weekend.

Please note that while Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) is not expected to directly impact the Philippines, the enhanced southwest monsoon will continue to bring wet weather across the majority of the country in the next few days. Rainfall amounts of more than 100mm are still possible especially in Western Luzon and Visayas, including Metro Manila. Please listen to your local news for the latest class suspension and other bulletins by the officials.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Typhoon Chan-Hom (Falcon) Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070815
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Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) continues to move across the Philippine Sea today. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 900km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,400km northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Chan-Hom remains large and very rugged. Convective activity remains strong especially on the southeastern quadrant and the radial outflow remains strong as well. However, the very large circulation of Chan-Hom is very susceptible to dry air entrainment. This absorption of dry air is what is hindering Chan-Hom from rapidly intensifying. With that said, we are still expecting the storm to intensify slowly in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track for Typhoon Chan-Hom (Bagyong Falcon) remains generally the same from our forecast issued yesterday. We are still expecting the typhoon to continue moving northwestward and should make landfall in the Fujian-Zhejiang Province area by Saturday morning. Chan-Hom may intensify into a high-end Category 3 (even a Cat 4) typhoon before it makes landfall in China. And before that, Chan-Hom is expected to bring stormy conditions across Northern Taiwan and parts of the Ryukyu Islands of Japan.

While not expected to directly impact the Philippines, Typhoon Chan-Hom will be enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) which will continue bringing widespread rains across parts of the Philippines. Many areas are forecast to receive well upwards of 100mm of rainfall in the next few days. Urban flooding, especially across Metro Manila, are possible through the remainder of this week. Please consult with PAGASA and your local news outlets for the latest class suspensions and flooding situations in your area.

We'll have another update later this evening. Stay safe!

Typhoon Chan-Hom Update #9

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070715
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Chan-Hom has intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon this morning as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 1,000km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows strong convective bands wrapping around Typhoon Chan-Hom's large, yet rugged, eye. Radial outflow has also improved and the warm sea surface temperatures of the Philippine Sea are aiding intensification. There is also plenty of moisture inflow to fuel that strengthening.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Our latest Forecast Track for Typhoon Chan-Hom has been moved slightly southward compared to our previous forecast from yesterday. We are still expecting Chan-Hom to continue moving generally northwestward but it may move closer to Taiwan than previously thought. It may also undergo a period of rapid intensification which may push it towards Category-4 strength by Thursday.

Typhoon Chan-Hom is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by early tomorrow (Wednesday) and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Falcon' by PAGASA. While we are not expecting any direct impacts from Chan-Hom, it will still be enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) which may bring continuous rainfall across parts of the Philippines in the coming days.

By Thursday and Friday, Chan-Hom is forecast to move close to Miyako Islands of Japan and close to the northern portions of Taiwan. Dangerous stormy conditions are likely to impact these areas later this week. After that, Chan-Hom is forecast to make landfall in either the Fujian or Zhejiang Province of China as a Category 3 Typhoon.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #8

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070615
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to slowly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea away from the Marianas Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 500km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the core of Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has become better organized this morning with good convective bands wrapping around the low-level circulation center. The storm brought more than a foot (12 inches or 320mm) of rain in Guam causing flooding in many locations. Thankfully, stormy conditions are pretty much over across the Marianas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest Forecast Track shows a generally northwesterly track for Chan-Hom. We have seen a good consensus among the computer models and forecast agencies in the region and so we have moderate to good confidence with our current forecast.

During the next few days, we expect Chan-Hom to continue slowly intensifying, possibly becoming a typhoon by tomorrow. It may peak at Category 3 intensity later this week as it moves near the Southern Japanese Islands. If that comes to fruition, the island of Okinawa might see dangerous stormy conditions later this week with the possibility of typhoon-force conditions occurring.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #7

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 070515
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is now moving near the Marianas Islands this morning. The storm center was last located approximately 80km northeast of Guam or about 170km south of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Chan-Hom is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Saipan and Tinian. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Rota and a Typhoon Watch for Guam. Please adhere to the latest local statements and bulletins from the National Weather Service. 

Click HERE for their official website.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Chan-Hom moving near the Marianas Islands. Strong convection associated with the storm continue to move across, especially in Guam, Rota, and Saipan. The low-level center is also bringing strong winds across the region with 40-mph (65kph) winds being reported in Saipan while Guam is reporting 30-mph winds. We expect these stormy conditions to persist over the next 6 hours or so as Chan-Hom makes its way across the archipelago.

Radar Image from NWS

Latest radar image out of Guam shows the center of Chan-Hom (highlighted) moving very near the island of Rota. Surrounding this center are bands of light to moderate rains (green-lighter rains, yellow/oranges-heavier rains) moving across Guam and nearby islands. Rainfall accumulations of 50-100mm (2 to 6 inches) are possible throughout the day today as Chan-Hom moves through.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom will continue moving west northwestward and should start moving away from the Mariana Islands later tonight with quieter weather expected for the Marianas Islands later tomorrow (Monday). Chan-Hom will then head towards the Southern Japanese Islands, possibly affecting the region by Wednesday or Thursday.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #6

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070415
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is showing signs of re-organization as it moves closer to the Marianas Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 350km southeast of Saipan or about 370km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Chan-Hom is moving north northwestward at 15kph.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan as per the National Weather Service.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased once again and this time, it's much closer to the low-level center. The inhibiting factors for intensification that we saw yesterday are also looking less significant and, thus, we should see Chan-Hom continue intensifying, albeit slower than previously forecast.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is forecast to turn to the northwest crossing the Marianas sometime tomorrow evening (Sunday). The center of Chan-Hom is forecast to pass near the island of Saipan bringing the possibility of near typhoon-force winds, along with periods of heavy rains. Unsettled weather will dominate the weather for the islands through early next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #5

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070315
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom has significantly weakened this morning after being briefly upgraded to a Typhoon last night. The storm center was last located approximately 530km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 10kph.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian as per the National Weather Service. Please adhere to their latest bulletins and local statement by clicking HERE (NWS Website)

VIS Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite imagery shows the low-level center has been left fully exposed with the main convective activity being displaced to the southwest. Aside from moderate easterly wind shear, Chan-Hom is also interacting with a tropical disturbance to the northeast which is causing upper-level convergence which is not usually conducive for tropical development. This feature has caused an unexpected weakening for Chan-Hom as it nears the Marianas Islands.

With that said, residents in Guam and nearby islands should still prepare for a possibility of a strong Tropical Storm or maybe still a typhoon depending on how fast Chan-Hom can recover and re-establish its structure over the next 12 to 24 hours. We are expecting the center of the storm to pass near Guam and Rota late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Rains, strong winds, and high waves will dominate the region over the next few days.

Chan-Hom is, then, forecast to resume intensifying at a steadier pace early next week as it moves across the Philippine Sea. But as of right now, it is a waiting game as we await Chan-Hom's attempt at re-intensification.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #4

Issued (1430 UTC) 1030pm PhT 070215
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify this evening and is likely to be upgraded to a Typhoon before tomorrow morning. The storm center was last located approximately 480km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 20kph.

A TYPHOON WATCH has been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, Rota, Saipan, and Tinian. Residents are advised to start preparing emergency plans for the incoming storm. As always, please follow the warnings and bulletins of your local officials. Stay safe!

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image show strong convective activity that is becoming more organized especially near the center. A recent microwave imagery (not shown) suggests that an eyewall is starting to form and that we could see further intensification tonight. In fact, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has already upgraded Chan-Hom into a Typhoon. We're still waiting for the Japan Meteorological Agency to do the same.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is starting to slow down and is forecast to start turning to the northwest as it rounds the periphery of the sub-tropical ridge. It will start affecting Guam and the rest of the Mariana Islands with periods of light to moderate rains. Seas will also start to be unsettled as the huge circulation of Chan-Hom approaches the islands. The worst weather conditions for Guam and the rest of the Marianas are forecast to occur Saturday and into Sunday. We're expecting typhoon-force winds of up to 160kph along with heavy rains and high waves.

If you live in one of these islands, you should start your preparations as early as possible. Continue to keep updated on the developments of this storm by checking our website as well as your official NWS website.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify as it moves quickly across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 750km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving westward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents in the said areas are advised to closely monitor the weather bulletins and warnings for this storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continues within the vicinity of Chan-Hom's circulation. However, persistent easterly wind-shear is still inhibiting consolidation, especially on the eastern side of the circulation. Aside from the wind shear, TS Chan-Hom is also interacting with a weak tropical disturbance (Invest 94W) which is slightly slowing down intensification. Despite this, TS Chan-Hom is still forecast to continue intensifying and eventually attain typhoon-strength later this week.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is based on the current atmospheric pattern as well as some support from the computer model outputs. We are expecting TS Chan-Hom to generally move westward in the next 24 hours but should make a turn to the northwest by tomorrow. It will be moving near the Mariana Islands, particularly near Guam, by early Saturday morning as a possible Category 1 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves are likely to pound the region this week. Chan-Hom should also continue intensifying as it crosses the islands.Stormy conditions will likely persist through Sunday evening.

Please closely monitor the developments of TS Chan-Hom and as always, heed the warnings of your local officials. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #2

Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 070115
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Tropical Storm Chan-Hom continues to intensify as it moves across the Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 560km northwest of the island of Pohnpei or about 1,200km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Chan-Hom is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to build around the circulation. Wind shear is also starting to abate and we can see the low-level center starting to move in under the cloud overcast. Favorable conditions in the region will promote steady intensification through the next few days.

Computer models and forecast tracks from different agencies in the region continue to show a generally westward movement for Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. Steady intensification is likely and a high chance that the Chan-Hom attains Typhoon-strength later this week. Chan-Hom is forecast to move near the Mariana Islands, including Guam, this weekend.

Residents in the region are advised to continue monitoring the latest developments for Chan-Hom.

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom Update #1

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 070115
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As expected, a new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is the ninth-named cyclone in the region this year. The circulation center of Chan-Hom was last located approximately 370km north of the island of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Chan-Hom is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a huge burst of convective activity associated with Tropical Storm Chan-Hom. However, much of this convection is still displaced west of the low-level circulation center. Moderate easterly wind shear is still hindering faster development but the wind shear is forecast to abate as Chan-Hom moves westward.

Based on the latest computer model outputs, coupled with the current atmospheric pattern in the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward, intensifying along the way. It is likely that the system may attain typhoon-status as it nears the Mariana Islands later this week. Residents in the region are advised to keep a close eye on the development of this new cyclone.

We'll have another update later today.