Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 030614
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Faxai has become fully extra-tropical this morning and continues to move quickly across the Pacific Ocean. It briefly reached typhoon-strength yesterday, becoming the first storm of 2014 to do so. Once it moved over unfavorable region, it quickly lost strength and transitioned into a mid-latitude cyclone.
This will be the final update for Faxai. No other tropical cyclones are expected to form this time.
Showing posts with label 03W (Faxai). Show all posts
Showing posts with label 03W (Faxai). Show all posts
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Monday, March 3, 2014
Tropical Storm Faxai Update #5
Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 030414
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to intensify as it heads steadily northward. The storm was last located approximately 640km east northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Faxai is moving north northeastward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Faxai becoming more consolidated and symmetrical. Convective activity continues to deepen and get more organized. Further analysis also suggest that eyewall formation is starting to occur. Faxai is in an area of low to moderate wind shear with warm sea temperatures and good overall outflow.
However, Faxai will soon run out of time and should begin to weaken within the next 36 to 48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is still expecting Faxai to become a typhoon although that is becoming less likely. Either way, we no longer expect Faxai to impact any land areas as it continues to pull away from the Marianas Islands. Once it reaches less favorable regions, Faxai should start to weaken and become an extra-tropical cyclone later this week.
We'll have another update later tonight.
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to intensify as it heads steadily northward. The storm was last located approximately 640km east northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Faxai is moving north northeastward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Faxai becoming more consolidated and symmetrical. Convective activity continues to deepen and get more organized. Further analysis also suggest that eyewall formation is starting to occur. Faxai is in an area of low to moderate wind shear with warm sea temperatures and good overall outflow.
However, Faxai will soon run out of time and should begin to weaken within the next 36 to 48 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is still expecting Faxai to become a typhoon although that is becoming less likely. Either way, we no longer expect Faxai to impact any land areas as it continues to pull away from the Marianas Islands. Once it reaches less favorable regions, Faxai should start to weaken and become an extra-tropical cyclone later this week.
We'll have another update later tonight.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Tropical Storm Faxai Update #4
Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 030314
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to show improvements as it moves northward across the Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 550km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Faxai is moving northward at 10kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows convective activity continue to grow and become more organized. The storm as a whole also looks a lot more symmetrical than it did 24 hours ago. Further analysis show banding is becoming more tightly-wrapped around the center which is indicative of further intensification. Right now, low to moderate shear is helping outflow channels to become more pronounced. Combined with warm sea temperatures and a moist atmosphere, Faxai looks to remain in a region of somewhat favorable conditions.
Tropical Storm Faxai will continue moving northward and should not really pose a threat to the Mariana Islands. The only effects we can see are the high surf and breezy conditions; both of which will likely persist over the next two to three days. Faxai will continue intensifying and should reach high-end TS intensity before weakening starting Wednesday as it heads to less favorable environment.
We'll have another update later today.
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to show improvements as it moves northward across the Pacific. The storm was last located approximately 550km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Faxai is moving northward at 10kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows convective activity continue to grow and become more organized. The storm as a whole also looks a lot more symmetrical than it did 24 hours ago. Further analysis show banding is becoming more tightly-wrapped around the center which is indicative of further intensification. Right now, low to moderate shear is helping outflow channels to become more pronounced. Combined with warm sea temperatures and a moist atmosphere, Faxai looks to remain in a region of somewhat favorable conditions.
Tropical Storm Faxai will continue moving northward and should not really pose a threat to the Mariana Islands. The only effects we can see are the high surf and breezy conditions; both of which will likely persist over the next two to three days. Faxai will continue intensifying and should reach high-end TS intensity before weakening starting Wednesday as it heads to less favorable environment.
We'll have another update later today.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Tropical Storm Faxai Update #3
Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 030214
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Tropical Storm Faxai is showing improvements this morning as the wind shear weakens in the region. The storm was last located approximately 630km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Faxai is moving northward at 5kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased and banding is continuing to wrap around the storm center. Outflow is also increasing, especially to the north and the west. Wind shear has considerably weakened in the past 24 hours allowing Faxai to improve and intensify. Favorable conditions are forecast to remain through the next two days.
Tropical Storm Faxai should continue intensifying as it moves steadily northward. It may move close enough to bring light rains for Guam. The rest of the Mariana Islands will also continue to have breezy conditions and high surf. Faxai should reach high-end Tropical Storm intensity by Tuesday before starting to weaken as it heads towards cooler waters.
We'll have another update later today.
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Tropical Storm Faxai is showing improvements this morning as the wind shear weakens in the region. The storm was last located approximately 630km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Faxai is moving northward at 5kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased and banding is continuing to wrap around the storm center. Outflow is also increasing, especially to the north and the west. Wind shear has considerably weakened in the past 24 hours allowing Faxai to improve and intensify. Favorable conditions are forecast to remain through the next two days.
Tropical Storm Faxai should continue intensifying as it moves steadily northward. It may move close enough to bring light rains for Guam. The rest of the Mariana Islands will also continue to have breezy conditions and high surf. Faxai should reach high-end Tropical Storm intensity by Tuesday before starting to weaken as it heads towards cooler waters.
We'll have another update later today.
Friday, February 28, 2014
Tropical Storm Faxai Update #2
Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 030114
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to struggle amidst the strong wind shear in the region. The storm was last located approximately 730km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Faxai is moving northeastward at 10kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the system continues to struggle developing. Despite the increase in convective activity, the low-level center remains partially exposed due to the strong vertical wind-shear. All other factors remain favorable such as the sea surface temperatures and overall moisture in the atmosphere.
We are expecting Tropical Storm Faxai to slowly intensify beginning tomorrow. We are not expecting direct impact for Guam and the Marianas Islands. However, the system may still move close enough to bring rains, gusty winds, and high waves for the islands.
Faxai will continue moving northeastward and should lose strength as it begins to move into cooler waters. By Thursday, the system is expected to become extra-tropical in the Pacific.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
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Tropical Storm Faxai continues to struggle amidst the strong wind shear in the region. The storm was last located approximately 730km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Faxai is moving northeastward at 10kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the system continues to struggle developing. Despite the increase in convective activity, the low-level center remains partially exposed due to the strong vertical wind-shear. All other factors remain favorable such as the sea surface temperatures and overall moisture in the atmosphere.
We are expecting Tropical Storm Faxai to slowly intensify beginning tomorrow. We are not expecting direct impact for Guam and the Marianas Islands. However, the system may still move close enough to bring rains, gusty winds, and high waves for the islands.
Faxai will continue moving northeastward and should lose strength as it begins to move into cooler waters. By Thursday, the system is expected to become extra-tropical in the Pacific.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Tropical Storm Faxai Update #1
Issued (1330 UTC) 930pm PhT 022814
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The newly-formed Tropical Depression in the Caroline Islands has intensified and is now a Tropical Storm with an international name of "Faxai". This cyclone (the third named cyclone of 2014) was last located approximately 660km south southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Faxai is moving north northeastward at 5kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has improved with greater coverage, especially near the center. There is still some moderate wind shear that is impacting the system leaving the low-level center still displaced. Furthermore, the system is still a bit too far to affect Guam and the rest of Northern Mariana Islands.
Tropical Storm Faxai is forecast to continue consolidating as it moves slowly to the north. It is also forecast to pass east of Guam by tomorrow and could bring rains, gusty winds, and high surf and in around the islands. Depending on the rate of intensification, Faxai could reach near-typhoon strength by Tuesday as it moves northeastward but is then forecast to start losing strength shortly thereafter.
We'll have more updates on Tropical Storm Faxai tomorrow morning.
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The newly-formed Tropical Depression in the Caroline Islands has intensified and is now a Tropical Storm with an international name of "Faxai". This cyclone (the third named cyclone of 2014) was last located approximately 660km south southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Faxai is moving north northeastward at 5kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has improved with greater coverage, especially near the center. There is still some moderate wind shear that is impacting the system leaving the low-level center still displaced. Furthermore, the system is still a bit too far to affect Guam and the rest of Northern Mariana Islands.
Tropical Storm Faxai is forecast to continue consolidating as it moves slowly to the north. It is also forecast to pass east of Guam by tomorrow and could bring rains, gusty winds, and high surf and in around the islands. Depending on the rate of intensification, Faxai could reach near-typhoon strength by Tuesday as it moves northeastward but is then forecast to start losing strength shortly thereafter.
We'll have more updates on Tropical Storm Faxai tomorrow morning.
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