Tropical Storm Meranti Update #4 (FINAL)

Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 091516
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Tropical Storm Meranti continues to weaken as it moves further inland across Southern China. The storm's center was last located approximately 120km northwest of Xiamen. Maximum sustained winds are down to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Meranti is currently moving north northwest at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows what once was a Super Typhoon, gradually dissipating over Fujian Province in China. Meranti made landfall earlier this morning as a Category 3 typhoon just east of Xiamen City. Wind gusts of up to 180kph were recorded in some places, along with continuous heavy rains.

Tropical Storm Meranti will continue weakening as it moves over land but will also continue bringing rains across much of Southeastern China for the next 24 to 48 hours. Rainfall accumulations of 200mm or more are still possible across Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang Provinces over the next few days.

This will be our final update on Tropical Storm Meranti.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Meanwhile, the other Tropical System we've been watching continues to march through the Philippine Sea today. Typhoon Malakas (Bagyong Gener) was last located approximately 730km east of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. The system is moving northwestward at 20kph.

Typhoon Malakas is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines as it is forecast to curve more to the northwest possibly towards Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands.

We'll have a more in-depth update on Malakas in a separate post.

Super Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091416
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After crossing Luzon Strait and directly passing over Itbayat Island last night, Super Typhoon Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) is now impacting parts of Southern Taiwan. The eye of Meranti was last located approximately 50km south southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan or about 260km northwest of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Meranti is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

While Meranti (Ferdie) has technically left the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of 12pm today, Public Storm Warning Signal #2 remains in effect for Batanes Group of Islands and Signal #1 for Babuyan Group of Islands. This is for tropical storm conditions that may still affect the said regions. Preliminary reports out of Batanes indicate no "untoward incidents" as per the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines. However, we will continue to update as we get new info.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Meranti beginning to feel the effects of Taiwan's topography. The eye has become clouded and the central dense overcast has also weakened and disrupted. Nevertheless, Meranti remains a powerful and dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon. In fact, parts of Southern Taiwan are reporting wind gusts in excess of 160kph. Stormy conditions will prevail across the area for the next 12 to 18 hours.

Radar Image from Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan)

 
Aside from the strong winds and storm surge threat, heavy rains have also spread across Taiwan as can be seen from the weather radar image above. The eye of Meranti is still intact as well, skirting just to the west of Kaohsiung City. Rainfall amounts of 200 to 400mm are possible across Taiwan with higher amounts of up to 600mm possible in the mountainous areas, over the next 48 hours. Landslides and flash floods are going to be the highest threat from this extreme rainfall event.

For the latest Radar Images and weather observations out of Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB)

Meranti should continue to weaken as it heads northwestward, as its circulation gets disrupted by Taiwan's and Southern China's topography. Despite the weakening, we still expect Meranti to maintain Typhoon intensity as it makes landfall in the Guangdong-Fujian Province area by Thursday morning. The city of Xiamen, home to 3 million people, is at risk for dangerous stormy conditions in the next 24 hours; along with the rest of Southeastern China. High winds, storm surge, and widespread heavy rains will likely threaten the region.

Super Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT
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Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) has intensified even further and is now a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It has also become the strongest typhoon in 2016 so far. The eye of Meranti was last located approximately 330km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 680km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 295kph with gusts reaching up to 360kph. STY Meranti is currently moving west northwestward at a speed of 20kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #4 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #3 has been issued for Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and Northern Cagayan; while Signal #1 is for the Rest of Cagayan, Northern Isabela, Kalinga, and Northern Ilocos Sur.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the well-defined pinhole eye of Meranti surrounded by very strong convective activity. Outer rain bands can also be seen nearing parts of Northern Luzon and small islands to the north. This morning's trend has shown intensification leveling off. Nevertheless, Meranti is still packing really dangerous winds and unfortunately, Batanes Islands and extreme Southern Taiwan may get impacted within the next 24 hours.

The biggest change in the forecast consensus is the shift to the south for the track. We are no longer expecting Meranti to make landfall in Taiwan, but rather continue moving west northwestward possibly towards Southern China. However, very strong winds and heavy rainfall are still possible for Southern Taiwan and Northern Philippines. In particular, Batanes and the town of Basco could get hit with winds of greater than 200kph along with heavy rains and storm surge of up to 2 meters.

COAMPS 72-hr Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)

The image above depicts possible rainfall accumulation over the next 72 hours with the heaviest rainfall across Taiwan where areas may receive as much as 400mm. Parts of Batanes and Babuyan Islands are also forecast to receive high rainfall accumulations. Some rain bands may also make their way down towards Northern Luzon bringing occasional rains in the region.

Super Typhoon Meranti is forecast to continue heading west northwestward, slowly losing strength as it crosses into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Current projections show Meranti possibly making landfall in the province of Guangdong in Southern China by early Thursday morning.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #1

Issued (0030z) 830am PhT 091216
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A new Tropical Cyclone has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Typhoon Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) is currently moving across the Philippine Sea, rapidly intensifying from a mere Tropical Storm yesterday to a Category 3 Typhoon this morning. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 1,060km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Meranti is currently moving westward at 25kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Meranti with a pinhole eye that is starting to become more prominent by the hour. The system is currently moving through excellent environmental conditions in the Philippine Sea with weak wind shear, high ocean heat content, and excellent outflow. We expect Meranti to continue intensifying for another 36 hours, possibly becoming a Super Typhoon.

Current forecasts call for Meranti to continue moving generally west northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Some computer models are still split, however, as to the eventual track of this typhoon. One camp takes Meranti towards Southern Taiwan while the other takes it farther west into Southern China.

As for immediate impacts, Meranti will start to affect extreme Northern Philippines (mainly the islands north of Luzon) as early as Tuesday morning. Parts of Southern Taiwan will also feel the impacts of Meranti by then. Afterwards, there is still uncertainty as to where it will make landfall.

We'll have another update later today.