Tropical Storm Halong Update #23 (FINAL)

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081114
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Halong is now starting to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone as it nears the Russian Coast. The system was last located approximately 330km west of Sapporo, Japan or about 440km east of Vladivostok, Russia. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Halong is moving northward at 40kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong starting to look more like mid-latitude cyclone as it interacts with the baroclinic zone across the Sea of Japan. The low-level circulation center is becoming elongated and convective activity has weakened as dry air moves into the center. Rains and strong winds are also beginning to subside across Northern Japan.

Tropical Storm Halong should fully transition into an extra-tropical cyclone today. Weather across Japan should improve as well although scattered showers are still possible. Halong is forecast to move into the Russian coast by today and could bring unsettled weather in the region, but not too different from the cyclones that the region usually get.

This is our final update for Tropical Storm Halong. Typhoon Genevieve continues to move across the Pacific but is no threat to land. No other tropical cyclones are forecast to form in the Western Pacific in the next few days.

Typhoon Halong Update #22 (w/ Video) [LANDFALL]

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081014
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Please watch our latest Video Update this morning for more information:

Typhoon Halong has made landfall in the island of Shikoku earlier this morning. The system is now moving into Tokushima Prefecture and was last located approximately 50km east northeast of Kochi or about 160km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Halong maintaining that inner core with strong convective activity crossing over the island of Shikoku. A weather station in Muroto recorded sustained winds of up to 150kph and gusts of up to 185kph which support our current wind estimates. Winds should significantly weaken now that the system is inland. However, the threat of heavy rains will continue.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image shows widespread heavy rains falling across Shikoku and parts of Chugoku and Kansai Regions (particularly across Kii Peninsula). We're expecting up to 500mm of rain to fall across these areas over the next 24 to 48 hours. Please heed the warnings from your local officials and if you've been told to evacuate, please do so especially if you live in mountainous areas, low-lying areas and near bodies of water.

For the latest radar images and warnings from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong should weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into Honshu. Cities like Kobe, Osaka, and Kyoto will see strong winds and heavy rains over the next 6 to 12 hours. Even parts of Chubu Region including the city of Nagoya could see stormy conditions later today. Halong will move into the Sea of Japan by early tomorrow morning and should become an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves towards Russia by Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong Update #21

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 080914
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Typhoon Halong continues to move closer to the island of Shikoku and could make landfall in the next 3 hours. The system was last located approximately 90km southwest of the city of Kochi or about 300km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong moving closer to Shikoku. The system has slightly weakened and the inner core is starting to get eroded, especially on the western half. However, There is still ample convective activity on the eastern side which will bring stormy conditions across Japan.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image shows widespread heavy rains are now pummeling Shikoku and the Kansai Region in Honshu. Thousands of residents have been ordered to evacuate due to the threat brought by heavy rains. We are expecting as much as 300 to even 500mm of rain to fall over the next 24 to 48 hours, especially in Shikoku. Even parts of Honshu may see up to 300mm through tomorrow.

For the latest radar images and warnings, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong is forecast to make landfall within the next 3 hours near the city of Kochi. It will then weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into the Chugoku and Kansai Regions of Honshu. Widespread heavy rains should be expected along the areas mentioned. Halong will exit into the Sea of Japan by Sunday afternoon and should continue to weaken as it moves northward.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Halong Update #20

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080914
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Typhoon Halong has maintained intensity as it moves closer to making landfall in Japan. The system was last located approximately 160km southeast of Miyazaki or about 550km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the center of Halong moving near the island of Kyushu. The system is maintaining strong convective banding and the core has actually shown signs of re-organization. We may see Halong regain a little bit of intensity later this afternoon as conditions are still somewhat supportive for tropical cyclones.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image shows widespread rains already impacting much of Shikoku, Kyushu, and parts of Honshu. Even Osaka is already reporting heavy rain showers and strong winds. Conditions across Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours. Widespread rains will continue for the next 24 to 48 hours and up to 500mm of rainfall accumulation may be possible in some areas.

For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Halong should be able to maintain Category 1 Typhoon intensity up through landfall. We are forecasting the system to make landfall in Shikoku later this evening. Heavy rains and strong winds will hammer the island and even affect Chugoku, Kansai, and Chubu Regions in Honshu Island. Halong will, then, move into the Sea of Japan by Sunday and could move into Russia by Monday morning as a tropical storm.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong Update #19

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 080814
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Typhoon Halong continues to move northward and is already affecting many areas in Japan. The system was last located approximately 360km south of Miyazaki or about 430km northeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have slightly weakened to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Halong is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye remains intact. However, convective activity has weakened and worsened today. Further analysis also show the inner core eroding as it starts to encounter dry air and cooler sea temperatures. Nevertheless, strong winds are still a threat and are actually starting to affect the Osumi Islands in the Kagoshima Prefecture.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image from Southern Kyushu shows the outer and inner rain bands from Halong approaching from the south. These are already affecting parts of Ryukyu and Osumi Islands. Farther to the north, pockets of light to moderate (and sometimes heavy) rains are affecting parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu. Many areas here will see up to 300mm of rain over the next few days as Halong moves through.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong will continue moving northward and will move just east of Kyushu Island by tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rains will batter the eastern coastline. Halong is then forecast to make landfall in the Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku by tomorrow afternoon (Saturday) as a Typhoon. It will then quickly weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into the Chugoku Region in Honshu and exit into the Sea of Japan by Sunday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Halong Update #18

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 080814
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Typhoon Halong has maintained intensity as it slowly tracks northward. The system was last located approximately 370km east northeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Halong is moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows little change with the organization of Halong. The western portions are starting to erode due to increasing shear and dry air. However, the eye is still visible and convective activity is still strong and abundant. There is also good radial outflow helping Halong to maintain that strong typhoon intensity.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Bands of light to moderate rains may start impacting Amami and Ryukyu Islands later this morning. Kyushu Island will also start to see stormy conditions later this afternoon. Eastern coast of Kyushu, including the city of Miyazaki will see the strongest winds of up to 100kph along with periods of heavy rain. The coast should also get pounded with high waves over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Halong is forecast to make landfall in southwestern Shikoku by Saturday morning as a Category 1 Typhoon. It will then weaken to a Tropical Storm as it tracks into Western Honshu and then exit into the Sea of Japan by Sunday. The regions of Shikoku, Chugoku, and Kinki will feel the stormy conditions over the weekend.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong Update #17

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 080714
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Typhoon Halong is now passing very near the Daito Islands today. The system was last located approximately 60km northeast of Minami-Daito or about 380km east of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have gone down to 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Halong is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Halong passing near the Daito Islands. Official observations in the island indicated maximum gusts of up to 170kph along with a minimum pressure of 954hPa. Rainfall amounts of up to 50mm were also reported in the islands. Weather conditions there should improve tonight as Halong moves away to the north.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Halong will continue heading generally northward. It could begin affecting other parts of Ryukyu Islands and eventually Kyushu by tomorrow. It should maintain typhoon intensity as it makes landfall in Shikoku by Saturday morning. It will be bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the region, including parts of Western Honshu. By Sunday, the system is forecast to move into the Sea of Japan as a weakening Tropical Storm.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #16

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 080614
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Halong (Bagyong Jose) has slightly re-intensified today and is back to a Category 2 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 450km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the improvements with Halong's organization. The eye has reappeared and convection has increased and so is the banding. There is also ample poleward and equatorward outflow helping with the ventilation. High cirrus clouds are also nearing the Daito Islands as seen on the satellite and rain bands will soon follow in the next few hours.

Typhoon Halong will continue moving generally northward and will pass very near the Daito Islands by tomorrow morning. Winds of up to 160kph and very heavy rainfall will be possible in the islands.

Okinawa, Amami, and nearby islands in the Ryukyu will be spared of strong winds and heavy rains but may still experience unsettled weather over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that, Halong will move towards Kyushu and Shikoku by Friday and Saturday bringing dangerous typhoon conditions in the region.Even parts of Honshu, including the cities of Osaka and Nagoya, will feel stormy conditions this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #15

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 080614
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Halong (Bagyong Jose) has weakened down to a Category 1 Typhoon this morning. The system was last located approximately 500km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast remains intact and symmetrical. Convective activity has slightly increased as well, and banding has improved especially on the northwestern quadrant. As Halong moves over warm waters, we might see slight re-intensification to occur over the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Typhoon Halong will continue moving generally northward and could start affecting the Ryukyu Islands by this evening. Outer rain bands and strong winds will soon spread across Okinawa, Amami, and nearby islands by tomorrow. Daito Islands will bear the brunt of Halong and could see winds of up to 140kph and very heavy rain by tomorrow.

Halong will continue weakening as it tracks northward and could make landfall in Shikoku by Saturday morning. It will then cross Western Honshu and move into the Sea of Japan, weakening to a Tropical Storm by that time.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #14

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 080514
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Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) has maintained intensity as it tries to recover after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 830km east of Basco, Batanes or about 680km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Halong is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the core of Halong has slightly improved this evening with tight banding wrapping around the center. Convection has also increased and become more symmetrical compared to this morning. Due to improved organization, Halong should be able to maintain its present intensity and could even slightly intensify by tomorrow.

Typhoon Halong will continue moving generally northward and could begin affecting the Ryukyu Islands by Thursday. It will pass between Okinawa and the Daito Islands and could bring strong winds and heavy rains in the region. The Daito Islands will see the worse conditions since they will be on the right side of the storm.

Later in the week, Halong is forecast to move into Mainland Japan possible affecting Kyushu and Shikoku and Friday as a strong Typhoon. Parts of Honshu could also be impacted over the weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #13

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080414
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Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) continues to weaken after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 740km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,020km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Halong is moving northwestward at northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong with a weaker presentation compared to yesterday. The eye is no longer visible and convective activity has weakened and shrunk in size. Further analysis also indicate that the eyewall replacement cycle is unsuccessful with the northwestern flank becoming eroded. Halong might still be able to recover but we're not expecting any significant re-intensification to occur.

Typhoon Halong is now turning northward and should head on that general direction over the next 2 to 3 days. It will also keep weakening as the environment becomes less favorable for tropical cyclones. It will move near Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands beginning Thursday bringing tropical storm-force winds and periods of rain. Later in the week, Halong is forecast to strike Mainland Japan, likely in Shikoku as a weakening typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Super Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #12

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 080414
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Super Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) has weakened overnight as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 780km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,130km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. Halong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Halong is now barely visible. The surrounding convection has also slightly degraded, especially along the northern half. Halong is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which is what is causing the recent weakening that we've observed. Halong should continue on a slow weakening trend over the next few days as it moves north.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Halong is forecast to move more to the north today and should continue weakening as the eyewall replacement progresses. Computer models are starting to agree on a track for Halong and so we are getting more confident with the forecast track. Right now, we're taking Halong east of Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands by Friday. However, the islands may still see tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph along with periods of rain. Halong could also threaten Mainland Japan by the weekend.

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #11

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 080314
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Super Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) has maintained its intensity as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Halong was last located approximately 900km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,260km south southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds remain at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Halong is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Halong remains well-established and so is the deep convection surrounding it. However, further analysis suggest the eyewall replacement cycle is starting to occur. This cycle will lead to partial weakening in the short term as Halong re-organizes its core. However, the system should remain a formidable typhoon over the next few days.

Super Typhoon Halong should turn more to the north by tomorrow and is still forecast to move near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan later this week.Due to the eyewall replacement cycle and increasingly unfavorable conditions, Halong is forecast to start slowly weakening over the next few days. However, as it approaches the Japanese Islands, it should still maintain a strong and dangerous Category 3 intensity. Residents in Okinawa and nearby islands to the north and east (Daito Islands) should continue to monitor the progress of Halong.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Super Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 080314
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Super Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) maintains its very strong intensity as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Halong was last located approximately 950km northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or about 1,350km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Halong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the perfectly symmetrical eye of Halong surrounded by strong and deep convective activity and good radial outflow.Halong rapidly intensified from a mere Category 1 Typhoon less than 36 hours ago to a Category 5 Super Typhoon this morning. Further analysis, however, suggests that an eyewall replacement cycle may be happening and could lead to a partial weakening in the short term.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Super Typhoon Halong will continue moving across the Philippine Sea and should turn to the north by Monday. So far, the consensus among computer models is taking Halong near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan by the latter part of this week. Residents from Okinawa all the way to Mainland Japan should closely monitor the progress of Halong.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Typhoon Halong Update #9

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 080214
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Halong has rapidly intensified overnight into a Category 1 Typhoon! The system was last located approximately 600km north northwest of Yap or about 860km north northeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Halong is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong looking more symmetrical this morning. The system has rapidly intensified as wind shear has slightly weakened and radial outflow has become more robust. An eye is also trying to become more organized. We expect continued intensification over the next few days as conditions remain favorable.

Typhoon Halong should turn more to the northwest this weekend. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the local name "Bagyong Jose". However, we don't expect Halong to directly impact the Philippines. Instead, the system may threaten the Japanese Islands in the Ryukyu and Kyushu Areas by the middle of next week.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #8

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 080114
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Tropical Storm Halong has intensified as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 580km north of Yap or about 770km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Halong is moving west northwest at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We're seeing some improvements this evening with regards to Halong's organization. A central dense overcast has become more symmetrical with ample convective activity. Further analysis reveals that the eyewall continues to improve as well and may be completely established overnight. We could even see Halong become a Typhoon by tomorrow at this rate.

Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will start turning more to the north as the sub-tropical ridge weakens. Environmental conditions will be favorable for further intensification and could see Halong become a Category 2 Typhoon by next week. Latest computer models are taking Halong towards the Japanese Islands by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #7

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080114
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Tropical Storm Halong continues to battle strong wind shear as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 600km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Halong is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remains strong, especially along the southern flank. Halong exhibited improvements last night with an expanding central dense overcast and banding around the center. However, wind shear increased again this morning leaving the northern half struggling for development. Nevertheless, we still expect Halong to recover and resume intensification in the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Halong is forecast to continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will turn more to the northwest as the sub-tropical ridge weakens. Environmental conditions will become more favorable and should allow Halong to reach Typhoon-strength this weekend. Latest computer model runs put Halong near the Japanese Islands by the middle part of next week.

We'll have another update on Halong and Nakri later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #6

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 073114
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Tropical Storm Halong is starting to show some improvements today as wind shear weakens in the region. The storm was last located approximately 480km west northwest of Guam or about 540km west of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Halong is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased and become more expansive. The low-level center which was fully exposed earlier this morning is now under the cloud canopy, suggesting that the upper-level winds are finally starting to relax. We could see further intensification happen tonight.

Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving west northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will then start turning more to the northwest and then to the north by early next week. Long-range forecasts suggest that Halong may impact the Japanese Islands by the middle part of next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #5

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 073114
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Tropical Storm Halong has slightly weakened as it struggles with strong upper-level winds. The system was last located approximately 340km northwest of Guam or about 380km east of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Halong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows the low-level center of Halong has been fully exposed as the system battles strong upper-level winds. Much of the strong convective activity is being relegated to the southern half of the circulation. We expect the wind shear to relax in the next few days which should allow Halong to resume intensifying.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days and should resume intensifying as environmental conditions become more favorable for development. Long-range forecasts show Halong intensifying perhaps into a Category 2 Typhoon by early next week. It could also pose a threat to the Japanese Islands in the next 3 to 5 days.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #4

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 073014
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Tropical Storm Halong has maintained its intensity as it begins to move away from the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 120km west northwest of Guam or about 220km southwest of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Halong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 6pm (PhT) today, the National Weather Service has canceled all Typhoon and Tropical Storm Warnings for the Mariana Islands. However, residents are still advised against going to the water due to the high waves churned by TS Halong. Please heed the latest updates and warnings from your local officials.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows little change with Halong's organization. The system seems to be struggling from increasing vertical wind shear and the poor upper-level environment created by Tropical Storm Nakri (Bagyong Inday) to the northwest. With that said, we still think Halong will intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea over the next few days.

Radar Image from Guam

 
Latest radar image out of Guam courtesy of the National Weather Service shows that the bands of light to moderate rains are now moving away from the Mariana Islands. The center of Halong also continues to be picked up by radar and remains fully intact despite the weakening trend we saw this afternoon. Rainfall reports across Guam and nearby islands ranged from 100 to 150mm. We expect weather conditions to continue improving.

For the latest radar images and warnings for the Marianas, please click HERE (NWS Website)

Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. As Tropical Storm Nakri (Inday) moves to the north, upper-level environment will become more conducive which should allow Halong to re-intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Right now, Halong is not forecast to directly impact and land areas in the next 3 days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.