Sunday, August 3, 2014

Super Typhoon Halong (Jose) Update #12

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 080414

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Super Typhoon Halong (Bagyong Jose) has weakened overnight as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 780km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,130km south southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. Halong is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Halong is now barely visible. The surrounding convection has also slightly degraded, especially along the northern half. Halong is currently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which is what is causing the recent weakening that we've observed. Halong should continue on a slow weakening trend over the next few days as it moves north.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Halong is forecast to move more to the north today and should continue weakening as the eyewall replacement progresses. Computer models are starting to agree on a track for Halong and so we are getting more confident with the forecast track. Right now, we're taking Halong east of Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands by Friday. However, the islands may still see tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph along with periods of rain. Halong could also threaten Mainland Japan by the weekend.

We'll have another update later today.

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