Nida

Apologies (again) for failing to post our 4pm bulletin.

Anyway, the final bulletin (by other agencies) for Nida have been issued last night. It is now down to a Low Pressure Area. The Tropical Cyclone Fomation Alert by the JTWC were likewise cancelled. Elsewhere in the Pacific, no threat of tropical cyclone formation is currently observed.

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120309 3am PST

Nida Downgraded

Nida continues to lose strength and is now downgraded to a tropical storm (winds of 95kph). Latest satellite data has shown that Nida has already entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. PAGASA will name the storm "Vinta".

Nida will not affect the Philippines and will quickly leave the PAR, if not dissipate. With the weakening of Nida comes another threat. An area of low pressure mentioned in our Nov. 29 bulletin has continued to flare up west of Guam. Formation of a tropical cyclone is possible, as well as interaction with Nida, which is located just 600km NW. More in-depth anaylsis will be posted in our 4pm bulletin.

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120309 5am PST

Typhoon Nida

Nida continues to weaken; winds are down to 140kph. It has also started to move NW at around 5kph. No major changes in the forecast. We expect Nida to be downgraded to a tropical storm/depression in the next 2-3days.

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120109 430pm PST

Typhoon Nida

Nida continues to weaken as it remains stationary in the Pacific. Winds have further decreased to 185kph and the system is now down to a Cat 3 typhoon. No significant changes in the forecast; Nida will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate in the next 3-5 days.

Meanwhile, another area of strong convective activity is being watched well east of Guam; chances of it being a tropical storm is low-moderate.

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113009 3pm PST

Typhoon Nida

Typhoon Nida has weakened in the past 24 hours and is now down to a Category 4 typhoon. Winds have decreased to 230kph. Nida has moved very little, with JMA saying that the system is almost stationary. There also have been a few changes with regards to the track. We believe that Nida will continue to move slowly in the next 24-36 hours. Nida will move NNW or northwestward and eventually dissipate; a number of models support this scenario. CMC actually forecasts Nida to move westward to southwestward and possibly enter PAR as a minimal tropical storm. There is a low chance for this scenario to happen; Nida will continue to be watched.

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112909 4pm PST

Nida Re-intensifies

After being downgraded to a Category 4, Nida has regained its strength as it continues to undergo eyewall replacement. It is a Category 5 super typhoon again with winds of up to 280kph and gusts reaching over 330kph. The forecast for the storm has become erratic as different weather agencies give their own outlook. Nevertheless, we think that Nida will remain a Category 5 typhoon in the next 12 hours or so as it moves very slowly northward. We expect the storm to eventually move northeastward, basing it on a number of model predictions. It will also weaken as it moves toward cooler waters and areas of high vertical wind shear.
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112809 315pm PST

Super Typhoon Nida

Super Typhoon Nida has weakened slightly and is now a Category 4 typhoon. It has winds of about 240kph (1-min average) and gusts reaching up to 285kph. The system is now moving north and will further turn to the northeast. Nida will eventually weaken as it moves north, possibly becoming a tropical storm by next week.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, it has become quiet once again.
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112709 4pm PST

Special Post

Recently, the whole world was shocked and appalled by the killings in Sharrif Aguak, which is dubbed the "Maguindanao Massacre." There are a total of 57 deaths including women and members of the press. Sa Gitna ng Bagyo mourns for the loss of the lives of innocent people who are only doing their part in keeping democracy alive in the country. We condemn this barbaric act which was done all in the name of politics. We demand that the government act swiftly and bring justice to the deaths of those poor souls; we hope that the full force of the law will be given to the perpetrators.

Super Typhoon Nida

Earlier this morning, Nida attained Super Typhoon status. It has blown up in the past 24hours and reached Cat 5 status with winds reaching 300 kph (sustained) at one point. It has peaked in intensity and is now undergoing gradual weakening as it moves into cooler waters and high winds shear. Latest forecasts call for a curvature to the north-northeast. Nida will not affect any major landmasses except for the islands of Iwo Jima.

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112609 340pm PST

Urduja is no more; Nida Intensifies

The final warning from the JTWC regarding TD "Urduja" was put out last night. PAGASA, on the other hand, still tracks the system and has its last location at 320km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. Winds are at 55kph and Urduja is moving NE at 15kph. It will continue to weaken and dissipate as it is continued to be influenced by the much larger and stronger Typhoon--Nida. Still, expect rough waves, rain, and strong winds for parts of the Visayas Region.

Typhoon Nida has considerably intensified in the past 24hours. It is now a Category 3 (or 4) Typhoon with winds reaching 195kph and gustiness of up to 260 kph. It is moving NW at 20kph. Nida is not expected to make a landfall in the Philippines, nor go near it. Nida might, however, enter the PAR. Nida has had a significant influence on the development of Urduja and it's the reason why the tropical depression has remained almost stationary in the Eastern Philippines, and also has limited development.
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112509 4pm PST

TD Urduja; TS "NIDA"

Tropical Depression Urduja

Last Position: Approx. 170km East of Surigao

Strength: 55kph sustained; 75kph maximum gust

Movement: NNW @ 7kph

Forecast: Will continue to move north. Interaction with NIDA (pre-"Vinta") is possible; high chance of dissipating in the next day or so. Moderate to heavy rain, and strong wind gusts will continue to affect Visayas, Mindanao, and Bicol region.

Tropical Storm "NIDA" (Int'l Name)

Last Position: 530km South of Guam

Strength: 85kph sustained; 120kph maximum gust

Movement: WSW 7kph

Forecast: Will continue to move westward and then take a turn to the north by Tuesday Evening-early Wednesday. Further intensification is likely. Effect on RP is still uncertain although it could enter PAR and be named Vinta. If close enough, Vinta could influence Urduja--Fujiwhara Effect.

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1124 400pm PST

Pacific Becoming Alive Again

After a hiatus, the Western Pacific Basin is slowly coming to life again. Latest satellite analysis has shown at least three areas of strong tropical activity, one of which is on the eastern side of Mindanao. Although, the chances of it developing into a tropical storm is low-moderate, it will bring moderate rains and will also increase the wave heights.

The other low pressure areas are still well away from the country but chances of development are there. We'll be watching these systems as days go by.
note: only two of the three LPA's are depicted here.
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11/21/09 245pm PST

Tropical Update

No tropical cyclones are being watched. Although there is an increased chance of rain for parts of Mindanao today.

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110409 4pm PST

Tropical Update

We apologize for the recent inactivity of this blog in the past couple of days.
Anyway, here's what happened during our absence, which we're sure you already know.

• Tropical Storm "Santi" left the Philippine Area of Responsibility around 1pm of November 1. It moved into Vietnam and has been downgraded into a tropical depression.
  

• Tropical Depression "Tino" has formed off the coast of Northeast Luzon; maximum winds reached 55kph at one point. Due to the Amihan (Northeast Monsoon), Tino tracked south-southwestward, moving into the Bicol Region.

PAGASA has downgraded Tino into a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it moves into the Visayas region. Provinces in the Central Visayas should experience moderate rain and winds in the next day or so.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, no tropical activity near the Philippines is being watched.

The next Tropical Update will be issued at around 3am PST.
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110309 3pm PST

TS Santi Leaves RP

Santi is now 700km WSW of Manila and will not be a major factor in the weather anymore. Expect clearing weather in the next day or so. However, a tropical depression has recently spotted east of Luzon. It is not fully organized yet but more development, perhaps strengthening to a Tropical Storm, is likely. It should bring rain and moderate winds in Northeastern Luzon by early Tuesday. __________________
110109 4pm PST

TY Santi Update

Typhoon Santi is now passing over Southern Luzon. Winds are at 115kph with gusts of over 140kph. It is moving WSW at 30kph. Winds of up to 100kph extend 50km from the eye. Manila, Calabarzon, Mindoro, Southern Bataan should feel the worst effects of Santi. Strong, damaging winds brought by strong wind gusts could topple trees, electric poles, and billboards. Very heavy rain could dump as much as 200mm in isolated areas. By 6am, it should be 100km WSW of Manila. Next update will be isseud at around 8am Saturday.

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103109 430am PST

TY Santi Update

Typhoon Santi was last spotted 550km East of Manila. It's packing winds of 155kph and moving west at 30kph. Outer rain bands have slowly made their way into the eastern coast of Luzon, affecting the province of Quezon and the Bicol region. Public Storm Signal Warnings are posted below. Expect conditions to deteriorate gradually in the next 6-12 hours.
Track

Santi will make landfall at around early Saturday morning somewhere in Northern Aurora as a minimal Cat 2 Typhoon with winds reaching up to 150kph and gusts of up to 190kph. It will then track through the Central and Northern Luzon and passing through Rizal, NCR, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, and Southern Zambales. It will slowly weaken as it interacts with the island, possibly weakening into a Cat 1 or even a Severe Tropical Storm. Santi should exit Luzon island by Sunday morning. The track forecast map is posted below. The areas shaded in light pink have a strong chance of experiencing more than 100kph winds.Rainfall

Typhoon Santi has a large area, and areas with signal warnings should experience prolonged moderate to heavy rains. Our 12hour rainfall forecasts show the eastern areas getting 50mm+ of rain; isolated areas could get more than 100mm. The amounts will slowly increase as Santi approaches. Legends only show up to 50mm; our next rainfall forecast will have increased rainfall amount parameters to compensate for this (i.e. 100mm+).


Wave Heights

As always, expect high surf and storm surges to occur, especially in the east coast. While Santi is just a Category 2 typhoon, waves as high as 2m or more could still be observed. Therefore, residents living in low lying areas, or more importantly, near the coast, should definitely evacuate. Sea travel is also not recommended.
Next update should be posted after 12hours (around 3am PST). Stay tuned to your local TV/Radio Station. If you're on the path of the storm, evacuation is a must. If there's no time, stack up on foods and clean water, move to higher ground; look for signs of flash floods and landslides as well.
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103009 300pm PST

Typhoon Santi Maintains Strength

Typhoon Santi continues to move west and has further intensified with winds now at 160kph (up from 130kph about 24hrs ago). Intensification has apparently being limited by that lack of poleward outflow according to the JTWC. Furthermore, increasing wind shear and relatively cool waters for this time of the year will limit Santi's development. Therefore, landfall intensity forecast has been downgraded to just a Cat 2 typhoon with winds of about 160-180kph. The track has also slightly shifted south. Therefore, NCR, and most of central Luzon will experience typhoon force winds by Saturday.______________________
102909 430pm PST

Typhoon Mirinae to Enter PAR

Mirinae was last located 1600km ENE of Manila. It has maximum winds of 130kph, which means it is now a typhoon. It is moving west at 30kph and is expected to enter the Philippines later tonight (Wednesday). Mirinae will then be named "Santi" as it enters the PAR.

Long-term forecast didn't change. Santi will still intensify in the next 2 days, possibly attaining cat 3. This development, however, will be limited due to the Ridge north. Landfall will be on Saturday, with maximum winds of up to 190kph. Based on its current movement, potential places that will be severely affected include the Central Luzon Provinces and possibly some in the Northern Luzon. NCR will experience strong winds as well. It should exit Luzon by Sunday morning and possibly leave PAR by Monday.
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102809 230pm PST

Tropical Storm 23W

23W has been upgraded to a tropical storm about 12 hours ago. It has since passed through Guam and currently has maximum winds reaching 70kph. It is moving WNW at 30kph. It should intensify and could become a typhoon in the next 24-36 hours. It will enter PAR by Friday and could landfall by Saturday as a Cat 3/4 typhoon. It will be named Mirinae; Santi upon entering PAR.

Preliminary forecast track
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102709 330pm PST