Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #17 (FINAL)

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 071114
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Tropical Storm Neoguri is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves quickly away from Japan. The center moved just south of Tokyo this morning and is now over the North Pacific.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The core of Neoguri is no longer intact with very little convection associated with it. The system will continue to move northeast across the Pacific and will no longer be a threat to land.

This will be our final update for Neoguri. We'll have our complete update on the developing Tropical Storm near Guam later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #16

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 071014
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Tropical Storm Neoguri continues to move quickly across Japan today. The system was last located approximately 130km south southeast of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Neoguri is moving east northeast at 40kph.

Radar Image from JMA

Neoguri is skirting the coast along the Kii Peninsula and is bringing scattered light to moderate rains. Rains are also beginning to move eastward into Chubu and Kanto regions. Strong winds of up to 80kph are also still being reported along the southern coasts of Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures. For the latest radar images and official forecasts, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Due to the rapidly weakening nature of Neoguri, we are not expecting any torrential rainfall amounts across the region anymore. Some areas may still see up to 200mm of rain but most of the region should see less than that. Neoguri is also moving very quickly northeastward and will reach the Tokyo Area by tomorrow morning bringing breezy conditions and light rains. The system should be out of Honshu by tomorrow afternoon (Friday).

IR Image from NOAA

Aside from Neoguri, we are also watching a disturbance near the islands of Chuuk which could develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert indicating HIGH chance of development. The system is tracking northwestward and could impact Guam and the Mariana Islands in the next 2 to 3 days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #15 (w/ Video)

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070914
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Neoguri has now weakened to a Tropical Storm as it approaches the island of Kyushu. The storm center was last located approximately 280km west southwest of Nagasaki or about 320km west of Kagoshima. Maximum sustained winds are down to 110kph with gusts of up to 155kph. Neoguri is moving westward at 20kph.

Watch our Video Update below for the complete analysis and forecast for this storm.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Neoguri will continue to track eastward and will make landfall near the city of Kagoshima in Kyushu by early tomorrow morning (Thursday). It will then track along the southern portion of Shikoku and then move into Honshu by Thursday evening. Neoguri will continue rapidly weakening as it moves near the cities of Osaka and Nagoya by Friday morning. It will also move near the Tokyo Area by Friday afternoon. And by Saturday, we expect the system to move into the North Pacific away from Japan.

Rainfall amounts that could fall across the regions of Japan will range from 200 to as much as 400mm. Mountainous regions will be very susceptible to landslides and low-lying areas could see dangerous flash floods. As always, heed the warnings of your local officials!

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Neoguri Update #14

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070814
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Typhoon Neoguri has weakened slightly as it moves across the East China Sea. The eye was last located approximately 260km northwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving northward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri remains intact although the convection is significantly weakening. Sea surface temperatures in the region are cooler and the increasing wind shear will help weaken Neoguri as it moves northward.

Radar Image from JMA

Typhoon Neoguri continues to affect the Ryukyu Islands with its bands of heavy rain moving across the region. Rainfall amounts of up to 200mm have already been recorded in some places and we will probably see another 100mm, especially across Okinawa, throughout the overnight hours. Winds of up to 140kph are also still lashing the islands but we expect these to diminish by the early morning hours of Wednesday.

For the latest radar image and warnings fro Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Typhoon Neoguri will continue moving northward tonight. Weather conditions across the Ryukyu Islands should begin to improve by tomorrow. The eye of Neoguri is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu by late evening tomorrow as a weakening Category 2 Typhoon. It will then track across Shikoku and pass south of Osaka by Thursday afternoon. By this time, it should weaken to a Tropical Storm. By Friday morning, Neoguri is forecast to pass near Tokyo.

Strong winds will not be the main threat for Mainland Japan (except Kyushu) but rather the widespread heavy rains that this typhoon will bring. We are expect up to 500mm to fall in some areas which could cause landslides and flash floods.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Neoguri Update #13

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070814
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Please watch our in-depth video that we posted earlier this morning for more analysis and forecast for Typhoon Neoguri:

 
Typhoon Neoguri has maintained intensity as it moves near the Southern Japanese Islands. The eye of Neoguri was last located approximately 140km northeast of Miyako-jima or about 180km west of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving northward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri moving very close to the Ryukyu Islands. The system has maintained deep convection over the past 6 hours although we are starting to see the eye shrink in the last few frames. Wind shear is starting to increase and the cooler sea surface temperatures should help induce weakening over the next 24 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image out of Okinawa shows the eye of Neoguri along with the bands of light to moderate rains affecting the region. The town of Kitahara (Kume-jima Island) reported winds of up to 180kph and will probably see higher winds in the next 2 hours. The main island of Okinawa should be spared of the strongest winds but gusts of up to 160kph are still possible.

Rainfall amounts have ranged from 50 to 100mm so far. We expect another 50 to 100mm overnight as the bands of rain continue to move in from the south. For the latest radar image, please click HERE (JMA Website).

Typhoon Neoguri is forecast to continue moving northward and should start weakening soon. Weather conditions in Okinawa should start to improve by tomorrow morning (Wednesday). By Wednesday evening, Neoguri is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu as a weakening Category 2 Typhoon. Mainland Japan will see much weaker winds later this week but the threat of heavy rainfall will remain. Parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu could see up to 500mm especially the mountainous areas.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #12 (w/ Video)

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 070814
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Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has weakened overnight and is now starting to impact the Japanese Islands. The eye of Typhoon Neoguri was last located approximately 70km southeast of Miyako-jima or about 250km southwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Neoguri is moving north northwestward at 25kph.

Watch our latest Video Update below for more analysis and forecast for Typhoon Neoguri:

Typhoon Neoguri is now beginning to bring strong winds of up to 160kph across Miyako-jima. Even Okinawa is starting to report winds of up to 100kph. Emergency warnings have been posted by the Japan Meteorological Agency due to the expected severity of Typhoon Neoguri. Please make sure to heed the warnings of your local officials and to never use this site for life or death decisions!

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image shows the eye of Neoguri moving very close to Miyako-jima. Bands of light to moderate rains have also begun affecting Okinawa and will continue to do so over the next 12 to 24 hours. For the latest radar images, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Neoguri will move just east of Miyako-jima within the next hour (8am Japan Time) and will move west of the island of Okinawa later this afternoon (around 3pm Japan Time). Stormy conditions will persist through the early evening hours before diminishing by tomorrow morning (Wednesday). Neoguri will then make landfall in Kyushu by Thursday morning as a weakening Typhoon.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #11

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070714
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Super Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has maintained its intensity as it continues to move towards the Japanese Islands. The eye was last located approximately 300km southeast of Miyako Island, 460km south southwest of Okinawa, or about 620km southeast of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds are at 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Neoguri is moving north northwestward at 25kph.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued several Warnings and Watches for the Ryukyu Islands including an Emergency Weather Warning for Miyakojima. Dangerous conditions are forecast to occur within the next 24 hours in this region. Please follow the forecasts and warnings of your local officials!

IR Image from NRLRMY

 
Latest satellite image shows that the eye remains well-defined and is still looking symmetrical this evening. However, cloud tops continue to warm which may mean that the system has reached its peak and may start to weaken overnight. Nevertheless, do NOT underestimate this system as it will still pack intense winds as it moves near the islands by tomorrow morning.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image shows outer rain bands from Neoguri are starting to fall across the Miyako Islands. A band of heavy rains is also approaching Okinawa and will start to impact that island later this evening. The heavier rains will continue to approach from the south and should start to overspread the region beginning early tomorrow morning. Rain won't end until late Tuesday evening and we are expecting up to 400mm of rain in some areas! For the latest radar images and forecasts for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Neoguri will continue moving north northwestward and will move very near Miyako-jima by early tomorrow morning (Tuesday). Despite the weakening observed on satellite, we don't think Neoguri will lose that much strength. It will still be packing winds of more than 200kph (with Miyako-jima being the most vulnerable) as it moves near the islands by tomorrow. The eye will pass roughly 160km west of Okinawa by 3pm tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday, Japan Time). The worst conditions won't end until early Tuesday evening.

By early Thursday morning, Neoguri is forecast to make landfall in the island of Kyushu as a weakening Category 3 Typhoon. It will bring strong winds and heavy rains across Mainland Japan through the weekend. Even parts of South Korea may feel the effects of this typhoon.

This is our Video Update that we posted this morning. Please watch for the forecasts for Okinawa and the rest of Japan. We'll have another update Video Update tomorrow morning.

Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #10

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 070714
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Super Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has intensified just a little bit more as it moves ever closer to the Japanese Islands. The eye was last located approximately 530km south of Okinawa or about 780km southeast of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds are up to 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. Neoguri is moving north northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri remaining relatively well-organized. Convection is still strong but has warmed over the past 6 hours which may hint at some weakening. Aside from the dry air, there has also been a slight increase in wind shear which may impact the typhoon's structure.

Radar Image from JMA

As expected, Neoguri's outer rain bands are starting to move towards the Miyako Islands. Bands will continue moving from the south and should begin affecting Okinawa later tonight. Winds will also start to increase later in the day. For the latest radar image, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Super Typhoon Neoguri should maintain its intensity for another 12 hours. Sea surface temperatures are still warm enough and the excellent outflow should diminish the effects of the increasing vertical wind shear. Worst conditions for Miyako Islands are from tomorrow morning (Tuesday) and into the afternoon. Meanwhile, Okinawa will feel the brunt of Neoguri by noon and into early evening on Tuesday.

Please watch our video from this morning for more in-depth analysis and forecast for Okinawa and the rest of the Japanese Islands.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Super Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) Update #9 (w/ Video)

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 070714
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Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has attained Super Typhoon intensity overnight. The system was last located approximately 740km south of Okinawa or about 900km southeast of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds are now at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. Super Typhoon Neoguri is moving northwestward at 25kph.

Watch our latest Video Update below for more info:

Super Typhoon Neoguri is forecast to start impacting the Japanese Islands by Tuesday morning. We expect the worst conditions for Okinawa to occur from noon to about 6pm on Tuesday (local time). Winds of up to 180kph are possible. Since the eye will pass about 150km west of the island, Okinawa should be spared of the strongest winds of up to 250kph. Kumejima Island will bear the brunt, however, as the eye is forecast to pass very close to it.

By Thursday, Neoguri is forecast to move into Kyushu as a weakening Category 3 Typhoon.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #8

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070614
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Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) has maintained intensity as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Neoguri was last located approximately 860km south southeast of Okinawa or about 1,080km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 220kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri has cleared up after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle earlier this morning. Convection remains strong however, we have noticed a warming in the cloud tops which may indicate that the cyclone is no longer intensifying. Further analysis also suggests that dry air and a slight increase in wind shear are hampering the continued intensification that we were forecasting before.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Despite the halt in intensification, we still think Neoguri will maintain that powerful and dangerous Category 4 strength as it approaches Okinawa by Tuesday. Furthermore, our latest forecast track is still expecting the system to briefly attain Super Typhoon Category 5 status before gradually weakening after.

We have also shifted our track slightly westward. We now expect the eye to pass within 100km of the island of Okinawa by Tuesday morning. Bands of rain will start to push through the Japanese Islands by Monday evening with the strongest winds following by Tuesday morning and lasting into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds of up to 200kph are possible so please do not try to head out in the middle of the storm.

Please stay safe, if you haven't done so already, please prepare now and stock up on food and water. Always refer to the JMA or your local officials for the latest warnings and forecasts for your area.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita) Update #7 (w/ Video)

Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 070614
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Below is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Neoguri (Bagyong Florita). Watch for our in-depth analysis and forecasts for this storm.

Typhoon Neoguri continues to slowly intensify as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The typhoon was last located approximately 1,130km southeast of Okinawa or about 1,400km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 220kph with gusts of up to 280kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

Typhoon Neoguri will continue moving northwestward and should still attain Super Typhoon Category 5 intensity in the next 24 hours. We expect rains to start affecting Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands by Monday evening. The strong damaging typhoon winds will start lashing the Japanese Islands by early Tuesday morning and will last into Wednesday. Aside from the strong winds, heavy rains of up to 400mm should also be expected across the region.

We'll have another update later today. If you live in one of the islands under the path of Neoguri, please start preparing NOW! Stay safe and always heed the warnings and forecasts from your officials.

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita) Update #6

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 070514
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Neoguri has rapidly intensified today, becoming a Category 4 Typhoon. The system is also nearing the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will soon be given the local name 'Bagyong Florita' by PAGASA. Typhoon Neoguri was last located approximately 1,270km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 270kph. Neoguri is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Neoguri with its rugged eye surrounded by strong and deep convection. The system has rapidly intensified today but has leveled off in the past 6 hours as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. Once this process is finished, we expect the system to resume intensifying as it tracks across the Philippine Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been a significant change in our forecast track as we now expect Neoguri to move west of the island of Okinawa. This will put the strongest winds to the Japanese Islands. We expect Neoguri to intensify into a Category 5 Super Typhoon by tomorrow and will likely maintain that strength through Tuesday.

Rain showers and strong winds will begin to impact Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday. Neoguri will then track towards the island of Kyushu as a powerful Category 3 Typhoon before weakening significantly as it moves across Mainland Japan by late next week.

If you live in one of these Japanese Islands, please prepare NOW! As always, heed the warnings and forecasts from your country's official agency (JMA).

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Neoguri Update #5

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 070514
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Neoguri continues to intensify and is now up to a Category 2 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 710km north northwest of Yap Island or about 860km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Neoguri's eye becoming more defined. The surrounding convection also continues to expand equally around the circulation center. Radial outflow remains excellent and will continue to provide favorable environment for intensification.

Typhoon Neoguri will continue moving northwestward and should enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight (local name 'Bagyong Florita'). It should also intensify into a Category 3 Typhoon later today and could possibly attain Category 4 intensity by early tomorrow morning.

Residents living in Okinawa and the nearby Japanese Islands should start preparing for the impacts of Neoguri. Damaging winds and heavy rains are forecast to start impacting the Ryukyu Islands beginning late Monday morning, into Tuesday, and lasting into Wednesday.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Neoguri Video Update #1

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 070514
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Here is our first Video Update for Typhoon Neoguri as it continues to move across the Western Pacific. Watch the video below for our in-depth analysis and forecasts for this cyclone as it threatens to impact the Japanese Islands by early next week.

We'll have more updates throughout the weekend so continue checking back our site.

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Typhoon Neoguri Update #4

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 070514
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Neoguri has intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon earlier this morning. The system continues to move across the warm waters of the Western Pacific and was last located approximately 580km north of Yap or about 680km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Neoguri is currently moving northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the increasing cloud cover associated with Neoguri. The eye is still not clear but it is starting to become more distinguishable on satellite. Excellent radial outflow can also be seen on the image along with the massive convective bands that extend well south of the system.

Typhoon Neoguri is forecast to continue moving northwestward and should continue intensifying as well. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Florita' by PAGASA. Neoguri won't directly impact the Philippines. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring scattered rains across the country over the next few days.

JTWC is forecasting Neoguri to become a Super Typhoon by early Tuesday morning. Because of the favorable condition along the path of this system, we won't be surprised if that forecast comes to fruition. We are also getting more confident that Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands will be impacted by this typhoon beginning Tuesday and lasting into Wednesday. If you live in one of these Japanese Islands, please start preparing now. As always, listen to the forecasts of your official weather agency (JMA).

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #3

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070414
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Tropical Storm Neoguri continues to intensify as it moves across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 450km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Neoguri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Neoguri continuing to organize and consolidate. A rugged eye is starting to form surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Excellent outflow, weak wind shear, and very warm sea temperatures are leading to the intensification that we are seeing right now. We expect Neoguri to continue strengthening over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We didn't make any significant change with our forecast track as the computer models are still in very good agreement with this storm. We are still thinking of a generally northwesterly track possibly towards the Southern Japanese Islands by early next week. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will get the local name "Florita" (as given by PAGASA). While Neoguri is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines, it will still enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) which will bring scattered showers across the country.

Tropical Storm Neoguri should easily reach Category 3 intensity or higher. In fact, some computer models are suggesting that it may Super Typhoon strength. By Monday and Tuesday, we expect the system to start turning more to the north and will approach Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands by this time. We will continue to tweak our forecast as we get more confidence with the exact track of this cyclone.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Continue to monitor the developments of Neoguri and always listen to your country's local meteorological office. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm 08W Update #2

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 070414
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Tropical Depression 08W has intensified into a Tropical Storm this morning. The system continues to move across the Western Pacific and was last located approximately 250km southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS 08W is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows that the Tropical Storm 08W is still maintaining its large circulation and is taking its time tightening and consolidating. This is why we haven't really seen any explosive development overnight despite the favorable conditions in the Pacific. Nevertheless, we are still expecting TS 08W to get its act together and start intensifying at a faster pace.

Computer models have made very little shifts with regard to the track. Basically anywhere from Taiwan all the way to Mainland Japan should continue to monitor this storm's progress. As we've mentioned before, we expect TS 08W to continue intensifying and could even become a Typhoon by the weekend. Several intensity forecasts put 08W as a Category 3 Typhoon by Monday, which is not far-fetched at all given the current environmental conditions along its path.

We will have another update later today and hopefully an in-depth Video Update by this afternoon.

Tropical Depression 08W Update #1

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 070314
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Tropical Depression 08W has formed over the Western Pacific earlier today. The system was last located approximately 360km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 08W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from CIMSS

Latest satellite image shows a very large system with the broad low-level circulation still continuing to consolidate. Strong convective activity is still somewhat limited to the southern half as the northern periphery of the circulation is being impinged by upper level winds. This situation is keeping much of the rains south of Guam and the rest of the Marianas Islands. However, isolated thunderstorms can still impact the islands throughout the night.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track shows TD 08W moving generally west northwestward over the next few days. There is good consensus among the computer models so we do have ample confidence with this current forecast. Due to the favorable conditions in the region, TD 08W should be able to intensify steadily--becoming a Tropical Storm by tomorrow and even intensifying into a Typhoon by this weekend.

There is still uncertainty, though, on where the system will end up by next week. However, there is an increasingly good agreement that parts of Japan may be impacted by this system around that time. We will keep tweaking our forecasts as we get more data over the next few days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.