Monday, July 7, 2014

Typhoon Neoguri Update #13

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 070814

Please watch our in-depth video that we posted earlier this morning for more analysis and forecast for Typhoon Neoguri:

Typhoon Neoguri has maintained intensity as it moves near the Southern Japanese Islands. The eye of Neoguri was last located approximately 140km northeast of Miyako-jima or about 180km west of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Neoguri is moving northward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Neoguri moving very close to the Ryukyu Islands. The system has maintained deep convection over the past 6 hours although we are starting to see the eye shrink in the last few frames. Wind shear is starting to increase and the cooler sea surface temperatures should help induce weakening over the next 24 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image out of Okinawa shows the eye of Neoguri along with the bands of light to moderate rains affecting the region. The town of Kitahara (Kume-jima Island) reported winds of up to 180kph and will probably see higher winds in the next 2 hours. The main island of Okinawa should be spared of the strongest winds but gusts of up to 160kph are still possible.

Rainfall amounts have ranged from 50 to 100mm so far. We expect another 50 to 100mm overnight as the bands of rain continue to move in from the south. For the latest radar image, please click HERE (JMA Website).

Typhoon Neoguri is forecast to continue moving northward and should start weakening soon. Weather conditions in Okinawa should start to improve by tomorrow morning (Wednesday). By Wednesday evening, Neoguri is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu as a weakening Category 2 Typhoon. Mainland Japan will see much weaker winds later this week but the threat of heavy rainfall will remain. Parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu could see up to 500mm especially the mountainous areas.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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