Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121715
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now weakening significantly over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and is now down to minimal Tropical Storm-strength. The storm center was last located approximately 140km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Melor is currently moving southwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Pangasinan and Zambales. All other Signal Warnings have now been lifted by the agency.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Melor and the newly-developed Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok). Melor is now struggling to maintain its structure as unfavorable conditions are now prevailing across the West Philippine Sea. However, we are still seeing strong convection affecting parts of Central and Northern Luzon. We expect these rain showers to continue throughout the day today.

Tropical Storm Melor will continue weakening today, eventually becoming a Depression later this afternoon. It will also continue to move southwestward away from the Philippines. Rains across Luzon should gradually taper off in the next 12 to 24 hours.

With the departure of Melor, we now have to monitor the incoming Tropical Depression Onyok. Thankfully, this system is not forecast to intensify as much as Melor did. However, it is still forecast to bring widespread rains across parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #4

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121615
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) has weakened to Category 1 but continues to bring widespread heavy rains across many areas in Luzon. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 100km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Northern Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island. Signal #2 for Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Northern Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro. Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Bulacan, Laguna, Calamian Islands, and the rest of Oriental Mindoro.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows the Typhoon Melor lingering just west of the province of Batangas. However, rain clouds are still covering much of Luzon bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains. Melor crossed the island of Mindoro last night as a Category 4 Typhoon and has since weakened. Nevertheless, we expect stormy conditions especially along the western portions of Central and Southern Luzon to continue.

Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is forecast to slowly weaken as a cold surge from the north will bring unfavorable conditions for this cyclone. Melor is also forecast to begin turning more to the south and will continue tracking across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Rain showers are forecast to remain across parts of Luzon and Palawan over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121415
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now skirting the coast of Northern Samar bringing potentially dangerous winds, heavy rains, and storm surge across the region The eye of Melor was last located approximately 20km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.

Signal #2 for Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Southern Quezon, and Leyte.

Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Lubang Island, Coron, Cavite, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Camotes Island, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Negros Occidental, Northern Iloilo, Dinagat Province, and Siargao Island.

VIS Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Latest close-up image of Typhoon Melor shows the southern eyewall moving along the coast of Northern Samar. Winds of up to 200kph are occurring around this area along with very heavy rainfall and high waves. Parts of the Bicol Region, especially Sorsogon and Legazpi, should also be experiencing rapidly deteriorating conditions this afternoon. Later this afternoon, the islands of Masbate and Ticao will be experiencing the full brunt of Melor.

IR Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) will continue moving generally westward today. Stormy conditions will persist across Bicol and Samar/Leyte area through the evening and will slowly spread towards the west encompassing Southern Luzon and Central Visayas. Winds of up to 160kph are possible near the center of the storm and rainfall amounts of up to 300mm are likely along the path.

Typhoon Melor will linger in the Philippines through Wednesday morning before moving towards the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). We urge residents along the impacted areas to remain vigilant and to always heed the warnings from your local officials!

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #2

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121315
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) has rapidly intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon this morning. The eye of Typhoon Melor was last located approximately 420km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat Province.

IR Image from FNMOC

 
Latest satellite image shows a pinhole eye that is becoming more defined by the hour. This small eye is surrounded by increasingly deep convective activity. We can also see a very robust poleward outflow on the northern half of the circulation providing good ventilation. Melor will continue to move across very favorable conditions in the Philippine Sea allowing for further intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Melor will continue moving in a general west northwestward direction. As of this time, residents along the Bicol Region and Visayas area to closely monitor the developments of Melor. Based on the latest information, Melor is forecast to possibly make landfall near Samar tomorrow morning (Monday) as a strong Category 3 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong damaging winds, and storm surge will be threatening the region tomorrow.

If you are living along the eastern coasts of Bicol and Visayas, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Consider starting preparations for the impending typhoon. We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 121215
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Tropical Storm Melor (Bagyong Nona) is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific this year. The system is continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 360km north northwest of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from JMA

 
Latest satellite image shows convective banding continues to consolidate and tighten around the low-level center. Despite the relatively weak presentation on satellite, we are noticing much better organization thanks to the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and excellent radial outflow. Melor should be able to slowly intensify over the next few days as it moves across open waters.

Latest forecast model consensus, as well as the latest tracks from forecast agencies in the region, shows Tropical Storm Melor continuing its current west northwestward movement. It will also likely to continue intensifying and may even reach typhoon status later this weekend. As for the track, the consensus is showing a track possibly towards the Bicol Region or the Samar/Leyte area.

We urge residents across Eastern Luzon and Visayas to continue closely monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Melor (Nona). Expect weather conditions to begin deteriorating by late Sunday evening across the region. If the system does make landfall in the Philippines, we expect this to happen around Tuesday morning.

We'll have another update later this evening.