Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 121215
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Tropical Storm Melor (Bagyong Nona) is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific this year. The system is continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 360km north northwest of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from JMA
Latest satellite image shows convective banding continues to consolidate and tighten around the low-level center. Despite the relatively weak presentation on satellite, we are noticing much better organization thanks to the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and excellent radial outflow. Melor should be able to slowly intensify over the next few days as it moves across open waters.
Latest forecast model consensus, as well as the latest tracks from forecast agencies in the region, shows Tropical Storm Melor continuing its current west northwestward movement. It will also likely to continue intensifying and may even reach typhoon status later this weekend. As for the track, the consensus is showing a track possibly towards the Bicol Region or the Samar/Leyte area.
We urge residents across Eastern Luzon and Visayas to continue closely monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Melor (Nona). Expect weather conditions to begin deteriorating by late Sunday evening across the region. If the system does make landfall in the Philippines, we expect this to happen around Tuesday morning.
We'll have another update later this evening.