Sunday, August 10, 2014

Tropical Storm Halong Update #23 (FINAL)

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081114
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Halong is now starting to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone as it nears the Russian Coast. The system was last located approximately 330km west of Sapporo, Japan or about 440km east of Vladivostok, Russia. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. Halong is moving northward at 40kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong starting to look more like mid-latitude cyclone as it interacts with the baroclinic zone across the Sea of Japan. The low-level circulation center is becoming elongated and convective activity has weakened as dry air moves into the center. Rains and strong winds are also beginning to subside across Northern Japan.

Tropical Storm Halong should fully transition into an extra-tropical cyclone today. Weather across Japan should improve as well although scattered showers are still possible. Halong is forecast to move into the Russian coast by today and could bring unsettled weather in the region, but not too different from the cyclones that the region usually get.

This is our final update for Tropical Storm Halong. Typhoon Genevieve continues to move across the Pacific but is no threat to land. No other tropical cyclones are forecast to form in the Western Pacific in the next few days.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

Typhoon Halong Update #22 (w/ Video) [LANDFALL]

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 081014
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Please watch our latest Video Update this morning for more information:

Typhoon Halong has made landfall in the island of Shikoku earlier this morning. The system is now moving into Tokushima Prefecture and was last located approximately 50km east northeast of Kochi or about 160km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows Halong maintaining that inner core with strong convective activity crossing over the island of Shikoku. A weather station in Muroto recorded sustained winds of up to 150kph and gusts of up to 185kph which support our current wind estimates. Winds should significantly weaken now that the system is inland. However, the threat of heavy rains will continue.

Radar Image from JMA


Latest radar image shows widespread heavy rains falling across Shikoku and parts of Chugoku and Kansai Regions (particularly across Kii Peninsula). We're expecting up to 500mm of rain to fall across these areas over the next 24 to 48 hours. Please heed the warnings from your local officials and if you've been told to evacuate, please do so especially if you live in mountainous areas, low-lying areas and near bodies of water.

For the latest radar images and warnings from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong should weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into Honshu. Cities like Kobe, Osaka, and Kyoto will see strong winds and heavy rains over the next 6 to 12 hours. Even parts of Chubu Region including the city of Nagoya could see stormy conditions later today. Halong will move into the Sea of Japan by early tomorrow morning and should become an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves towards Russia by Tuesday and Wednesday.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong Update #21

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 080914
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Typhoon Halong continues to move closer to the island of Shikoku and could make landfall in the next 3 hours. The system was last located approximately 90km southwest of the city of Kochi or about 300km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong moving closer to Shikoku. The system has slightly weakened and the inner core is starting to get eroded, especially on the western half. However, There is still ample convective activity on the eastern side which will bring stormy conditions across Japan.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image shows widespread heavy rains are now pummeling Shikoku and the Kansai Region in Honshu. Thousands of residents have been ordered to evacuate due to the threat brought by heavy rains. We are expecting as much as 300 to even 500mm of rain to fall over the next 24 to 48 hours, especially in Shikoku. Even parts of Honshu may see up to 300mm through tomorrow.

For the latest radar images and warnings, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong is forecast to make landfall within the next 3 hours near the city of Kochi. It will then weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into the Chugoku and Kansai Regions of Honshu. Widespread heavy rains should be expected along the areas mentioned. Halong will exit into the Sea of Japan by Sunday afternoon and should continue to weaken as it moves northward.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Typhoon Halong Update #20

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080914
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Typhoon Halong has maintained intensity as it moves closer to making landfall in Japan. The system was last located approximately 160km southeast of Miyazaki or about 550km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Halong is moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows the center of Halong moving near the island of Kyushu. The system is maintaining strong convective banding and the core has actually shown signs of re-organization. We may see Halong regain a little bit of intensity later this afternoon as conditions are still somewhat supportive for tropical cyclones.

Radar Image from JMA


Latest radar image shows widespread rains already impacting much of Shikoku, Kyushu, and parts of Honshu. Even Osaka is already reporting heavy rain showers and strong winds. Conditions across Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu will continue to deteriorate over the next few hours. Widespread rains will continue for the next 24 to 48 hours and up to 500mm of rainfall accumulation may be possible in some areas.

For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Halong should be able to maintain Category 1 Typhoon intensity up through landfall. We are forecasting the system to make landfall in Shikoku later this evening. Heavy rains and strong winds will hammer the island and even affect Chugoku, Kansai, and Chubu Regions in Honshu Island. Halong will, then, move into the Sea of Japan by Sunday and could move into Russia by Monday morning as a tropical storm.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Halong Update #19

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 080814
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Typhoon Halong continues to move northward and is already affecting many areas in Japan. The system was last located approximately 360km south of Miyazaki or about 430km northeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have slightly weakened to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Halong is moving northward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows the eye remains intact. However, convective activity has weakened and worsened today. Further analysis also show the inner core eroding as it starts to encounter dry air and cooler sea temperatures. Nevertheless, strong winds are still a threat and are actually starting to affect the Osumi Islands in the Kagoshima Prefecture.

Radar Image from JMA


Latest radar image from Southern Kyushu shows the outer and inner rain bands from Halong approaching from the south. These are already affecting parts of Ryukyu and Osumi Islands. Farther to the north, pockets of light to moderate (and sometimes heavy) rains are affecting parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu. Many areas here will see up to 300mm of rain over the next few days as Halong moves through.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings from Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Halong will continue moving northward and will move just east of Kyushu Island by tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rains will batter the eastern coastline. Halong is then forecast to make landfall in the Kochi Prefecture in Shikoku by tomorrow afternoon (Saturday) as a Typhoon. It will then quickly weaken to a Tropical Storm as it crosses into the Chugoku Region in Honshu and exit into the Sea of Japan by Sunday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.