Monday, September 29, 2014

Tropical Storm Phanfone Update #2

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 093014
____________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Tropical Depression 18W has intensified this morning and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Phanfone. The storm's center was last located approximately 280km east of Saipan or about 440km northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Phanfone is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saipan, Tinian, Pagan, and Alamagan. Meanwhile, a Typhoon Watch is in effect for Pagan and Alamagan. Please follow the warnings from your local officials. 

For the latest weather forecasts and warnings from NWS, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows central convection continuing to intensify and consolidate around the circulation center. Outflow remains excellent and wind shear remains light as well. Some rain bands are already pushing westward affecting the northern islands and even Saipan. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate during the afternoon and evening hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Tropical Storm Phanfone will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. It will pass north of Saipan tonight bringing stormy conditions across the region. Even Guam may see some strong winds and periods of moderate to heavy rains. Seas will be rough across the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Weather conditions across the Mariana Islands should improve by tomorrow evening as the system moves towards the Philippine Sea. A period of rapid intensification is possible and we are actually expecting Phanfone to reach up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. By this time, the system should start to recurve in response to a mid-latitude trough moving across East Asia. Nevertheless, Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands, and especially Mainland Japan itself, should continue to monitor the progress of this Tropical Storm.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Tropical Depression 18W Update #1

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 092914
_________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today and is currently aiming for the Mariana Islands. Tropical Depression 18W was last located approximately 700km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 18W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Pagan and Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian (San Jose).

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows a quickly developing cyclone with good convection wrapping around the low-level center. Radial outflow is also very good as conditions in the region are very favorable for development. Warm sea-surface temperatures, weak wind shear, and good upper-level airflow should promote continued intensification over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Our preliminary forecast track for the next four days is closely aligned with the consensus among the computer models. However, we have to note that there is a divergence regarding when the system will recurve to the north. This is very important as it will dictate which areas may be impacted down the road.

For now, we are expecting TD 18W to continue moving west northwestward and should start to affect Mariana Islands by tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rains will impact the islands but the worst conditions should stay north of Guam while Saipan may be a different story. TD 18W should also be close to becoming a typhoon at this point and will only continue to intensify from here on out.

As we've mentioned there are still differences regarding the eventual track. Anyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to Mainland Japan should pay close attention to the developments of this system. We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #4 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 092914
_____________________________

Tropical Storm Kanmuri continues to move quickly across the North Pacific today, away from Japan. The system was last located approximately 720km southeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northeastward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows weakening convection, especially across the western and southern portions. However, the low-level circulation remains intact and satellite analysis reveals winds well within tropical storm strength still exist. Kanmuri is currently undergoing extra-tropical transition which it should complete very soon.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri will continue moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. It should become a mid-latitude cyclone in the next 24 hours and no longer a threat to land.

This will be the final update for Kanmuri. We are monitoring a newly-developed Tropical Depression (18W) which may impact Guam and the Mariana Islands in the coming days. We'll have a full update on this said system later today.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 092714
_____________________________

Tropical Storm Kanmuri has intensified even further this morning as it moves near the Ogasawara Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 330km northeast of the island of Iwo To (Iwo Jima). Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to build, especially along the eastern flank. Kanmuri is showing characteristics of a monsoon depression with a very large circulation and weak convection near the center. We are also seeing multiple vortices spinning around a common center. The large nature of the system makes it difficult to really tighten up despite the very favorable conditions in the region.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri should continue moving northwestward today but should turn northward tonight. It will then turn northward tomorrow and then northeastward by Monday. We no longer expect Kanmuri to become a typhoon although there is still a small chance that it does become one. Whatever the case may be, Kanmuri should stay well south and east of Mainland Japan. Parts of Southern and Eastern Honshu may see some high waves and gusty winds but overall, the stormy conditions should stay over sea.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 092614
_______________________________

Tropical Storm Kanmuri continues to slowly consolidate and intensify this morning. The system was last located approximately 880km north northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows convective activity continuing to grow and wrap around the circulation center. Kanmuri remains in an area of low wind shear with good radial outflow. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support further intensification. As it continues to consolidate, Kanmuri may reach typhoon strength as we move into Sunday.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Tropical Storm Kanmuri is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward and will approach the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow. It may intensify into a Typhoon by Sunday as it tracks northward. By Monday, Kanmuri is forecast to recurve to the northeast and should avoid a direct hit in Mainland Japan. Still, parts of Southeastern Honshu may see some gusty winds and light rains Monday and into Tuesday.

We'll have another update later today.