Sunday, July 26, 2015

Tropical Depression Halola Update #7 (FINAL)

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 072715
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Halola has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is now dissipating over the Sea of Japan. The remnants of Halola was last located approximately 380km northwest of Osaka, Japan. Maximum winds are between 30 to 60kph. TD Halola is currently moving northeastward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows convection associated with Halola has pretty much dissipated. Winds along the coast of Western Honshu has also weakened considerably since last night. Rains associated with the cyclone has also dissipated for the most part.

Tropical Depression Halola will continue dissipating as it moves across the Sea of Japan. It is no longer expect to pose a threat to land. As such, this is our final update for Halola. No other tropical cyclones exist across the Western Pacific.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Tropical Storm Halola Update #6

Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 072615
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Tropical Storm Halola continues to weaken as it moves towards the island of Kyushu. The storm center was last located approximately 120km southwest of Nagasaki, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. Tropical Storm Halola is currently moving northward at 20kph.

IR Image from NOAA


Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Halola continuing to unravel as it moves across the East China Sea. Convective activity continues to weaken and the circulation center is starting to feel the effects of increasing wind shear. We expect continued weakening as it heads north.

Tropical Storm Halola is forecast to brush the western part of Kyushu later tonight and could possibly weaken to a Tropical Depression as well. Expect light to moderate rains to impact not only Kyushu but also parts of Western Honshu this evening. Thankfully, we're not expecting any significant impacts as Halola is weakening significantly now.

Halola is forecast to emerge into the Sea of Japan tomorrow morning as a Tropical Depression and may completely dissipate shortly thereafter. We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Halola Update #5

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 072515
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Halola has weakened to a Tropical Storm this afternoon and continues to move across the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The storm center was last located approximately 200km north northeast off the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. Tropical Storm Halola is currently moving northward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Halola continuing to weaken as it moves near the Japanese Islands. Dry air entrainment and cooler sea surface temperatures are contributing to the gradual weakening. Latest weather observations across Amami indicate winds below the typhoon-threshold along with increasing pressure readings. However, we are still seeing gusts well above 120kph. Expect the stormy conditions to persist through the evening hours.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Aside from the strong winds, we are also seeing bands of light to moderate rains continuing to affect the islands. There's not much heavy rainfall accumulations expected for the region but rains may still linger through tonight.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Halola will continue to track northward across the East China Sea and should be weakening along the way. Parts of Kyushu and Western Honshu will begin to see some light to moderate rains, along with gusty winds, impacting the region tomorrow and could last through the rest of the weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Typhoon Halola (Goring) Update #4

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 072415
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Typhoon Halola (Bagyong Goring) has begun to weaken as it nears the Japanese Islands. The eye of Halola was last located approximately 460km east southeast of the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph making Halola a Category 1 Typhoon. Typhoon Halola is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Latest satellite image shows Halola maintaining an eye feature despite the weakening overnight. Increasing wind shear and the advection of dry air has led to the weakening manifested by the degrading convective activity. However, good outflow is helping to slow down weakening and we expect Halola to maintain its typhoon-intensity at least through tomorrow morning.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


There hasn't been much change with our latest forecast track. We are still expecting Halola to move close to the Ryukyu Islands of Japan tomorrow morning possibly moving near the islands of Okinawa and Amami. Winds of up to 120kph along with bands of moderate rains are possible across the islands throughout tomorrow. The stormy conditions will likely persist through the afternoon hours.

Typhoon Halola is forecast to, then, turn northward across the East China Sea before weakening to a Tropical Storm by Sunday morning. The system is currently forecast to head towards the Korean Peninsula by Sunday evening before moving into the Sea of Japan. Parts of South Korea and even Kyushu and Western Honshu should expect stormy conditions this weekend.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Typhoon Halola Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 072315
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Halola has intensified even further this morning and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The eye of Halola was last located approximately 800km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Halola is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows an eye has appeared and continues to become more defined this morning. Surrounding this eye is strong convective banding along with good radial outflow. While the eyewall isn't exactly well established based on microwave analysis, Halola is still exhibiting good characteristics for a typhoon. We expect Halola to at least maintain its present intensity, and may even strengthen a little bit tonight as it moves across the Philippine Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Our latest forecast track is aligned with the forecasts from the agencies in the region (JTWC, JMA) and is also in line with the consensus among the computer model outputs. We expect Halola to continue moving in a general west northwestward track towards the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. Halola is forecast to move close to the island of Okinawa by early Saturday morning as a weakening Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are expected across much of the islands this weekend.

Halola will, then, turn northward moving across the East China Sea and then weakening to a Category 1 Typhoon by Sunday morning. Latest model guidance shows Halola possibly moving towards the Korean Peninsula by Sunday and may bring widespread rains across the region. Even parts of Kyushu and Western Honshu should expect stormy conditions to affect the area this weekend.