Thursday, December 17, 2015

Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #2 [FINAL]

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121815
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) is now dissipating just east of Mindanao today. The remnant circulation was last located approximately 320km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is moving west southwestward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur including Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sur, Northern part of Davao Occidental, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao, North Cotabato, Northern part of South Cotabato, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows disorganized convection associated with the remnant circulation of TD 29W continues to affect portions of Visayas and Mindanao. Bright clouds bringing heavy rains can be seen moving across Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, and Northern Mindanao. Some of these rains can bring as much as 10-20mm/hour. Total rainfall accumulations of up to 200mm may also be recorded in some spots.

Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) will continue dissipating as it tracks towards Mindanao. The remnant circulation is forecast to move inland later this evening with its associated convection forecast to linger across Southern Philippines over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Tropical Depression 29W. No other Tropical Cyclones are forecast to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.

Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #1

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121815
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) continues to move closer to the Philippine Islands this morning. The center of 29W was last located approximately 460km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur, Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sure, and North Cotabato.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection associated with TD 29W have begun to move in to parts of Visayas and Mindanao bringing widespread light to moderate rains. TD 29W itself, however, is struggling to maintain organization due to unfavorable conditions in the area. The low-level circulation center is left fully exposed and we don't expect any intensification occurring as it tracks towards Southern Philippines.

COAMPS 48-hr Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Despite the lack of intensification, we are still expecting widespread heavy rains to affect portions of Southern Philippines. The image above shows a 48-hour forecast for rainfall accumulations and we can see areas receiving up to 200mm (if not more) of rainfall during that period. Landslides and flashfloods are possible especially in areas placed by PAGASA under Signal #1.

If you live in these areas, please consult your local officials for the latest warnings in regards to the approaching depression.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121715
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now weakening significantly over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and is now down to minimal Tropical Storm-strength. The storm center was last located approximately 140km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Melor is currently moving southwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Pangasinan and Zambales. All other Signal Warnings have now been lifted by the agency.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows Melor and the newly-developed Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok). Melor is now struggling to maintain its structure as unfavorable conditions are now prevailing across the West Philippine Sea. However, we are still seeing strong convection affecting parts of Central and Northern Luzon. We expect these rain showers to continue throughout the day today.

Tropical Storm Melor will continue weakening today, eventually becoming a Depression later this afternoon. It will also continue to move southwestward away from the Philippines. Rains across Luzon should gradually taper off in the next 12 to 24 hours.

With the departure of Melor, we now have to monitor the incoming Tropical Depression Onyok. Thankfully, this system is not forecast to intensify as much as Melor did. However, it is still forecast to bring widespread rains across parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #4

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121615
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) has weakened to Category 1 but continues to bring widespread heavy rains across many areas in Luzon. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 100km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Northern Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island. Signal #2 for Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Northern Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro. Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Bulacan, Laguna, Calamian Islands, and the rest of Oriental Mindoro.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows the Typhoon Melor lingering just west of the province of Batangas. However, rain clouds are still covering much of Luzon bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains. Melor crossed the island of Mindoro last night as a Category 4 Typhoon and has since weakened. Nevertheless, we expect stormy conditions especially along the western portions of Central and Southern Luzon to continue.

Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is forecast to slowly weaken as a cold surge from the north will bring unfavorable conditions for this cyclone. Melor is also forecast to begin turning more to the south and will continue tracking across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Rain showers are forecast to remain across parts of Luzon and Palawan over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121415
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now skirting the coast of Northern Samar bringing potentially dangerous winds, heavy rains, and storm surge across the region The eye of Melor was last located approximately 20km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.

Signal #2 for Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Southern Quezon, and Leyte.

Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Lubang Island, Coron, Cavite, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Camotes Island, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Negros Occidental, Northern Iloilo, Dinagat Province, and Siargao Island.


VIS Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Latest close-up image of Typhoon Melor shows the southern eyewall moving along the coast of Northern Samar. Winds of up to 200kph are occurring around this area along with very heavy rainfall and high waves. Parts of the Bicol Region, especially Sorsogon and Legazpi, should also be experiencing rapidly deteriorating conditions this afternoon. Later this afternoon, the islands of Masbate and Ticao will be experiencing the full brunt of Melor.

IR Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) will continue moving generally westward today. Stormy conditions will persist across Bicol and Samar/Leyte area through the evening and will slowly spread towards the west encompassing Southern Luzon and Central Visayas. Winds of up to 160kph are possible near the center of the storm and rainfall amounts of up to 300mm are likely along the path.

Typhoon Melor will linger in the Philippines through Wednesday morning before moving towards the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). We urge residents along the impacted areas to remain vigilant and to always heed the warnings from your local officials!