Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Tropical Depression Kujira Update #4 (FINAL)

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 062515
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Tropical Depression Kujira is now beginning to unravel as it moves farther inland across Indochina. The circulation center was last located approximately 180km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are down to 45kph with gusts of up to 65kh. TD Kujira is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows convective clouds are still present and are still bringing widespread rains across parts of Laos and Vietnam. However, the circulation center is getting more difficult to discern on satellite and overall organization of the system is getting poorer this morning.

Kujira will continue dissipating but rains could linger over the next few days. This is the final update for Tropical Depression Kujira.

Rest of the Western Pacific Basin remains quiet but chances for tropical cyclone formation increase as we move into the weekend.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Tropical Storm Kujira Update #3 (LANDFALL)

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 062415
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Tropical Storm Kujira has now made landfall in Northern Vietnam. The circulation center was last located approximately 80km southeast of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. Tropical Storm Kujira is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NOAA


Latest satellite image shows the convective activity associated with Tropical Storm Kujira is now pushing inland towards parts of Vietnam and Laos. The circulation center is still very much intact and the storm is still maintaining good structure. Nevertheless, we expect Kujira to rapidly weaken as it moves over land.

Radar Image from NCHMF


Latest radar image from Vietnam courtesy of the the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting shows the bands of light to moderate rain associated with TS Kujira are continuing to push northwestward including into the city of Hanoi. Some areas are already seeing up to 100mm of rainfall this morning and we expect the heavy rains to continue through the next 24 hours. Even parts of Laos may see high rainfall amounts as Kujira continues to spin in the region.

For the latest weather warnings and forecasts for Vietnam, please click HERE (NCHMF Website)

Unsettled weather will prevail across the region for the next 24 to 48 hours. Kujira is expected to disintegrate by tomorrow although its remnants will still bring rain showers for the said areas.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Tropical Storm Kujira Update #2

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 062315
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Tropical Storm Kujira is now emerging into the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall in the island of Hainan. The center of Kujira was last located approximately 120km west of Haikou or about 350km east southeast of Hanoi. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kujira is currently moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NOAA


Latest satellite image shows convective activity is still pretty strong near the circulation center. Convective clouds are pushing northwestward into Northern Vietnam bringing widespread rains across the region. Hainan Island, meanwhile, should start seeing improving weather today. The Chinese Island saw as much as 250mm of rainfall over the past 24 hours due to Kujira.

Tropical Storm Kujira will continue moving across the Gulf of Tonkin today and will likely make landfall along the Chinese-Vietnamese border early tomorrow morning. We expect widespread moderate to heavy rains to cover much of the region over the next 24 to 48 hours (in and around Hanoi and parts of Guangxi Province). There could be as much as 250mm of rainfall and the chances for flash flooding is high in these areas. Please consult with your local officials for the latest weather warnings in your locality.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Tropical Storm Kujira Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 062215
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After nearly a month of inactivity, we're back to tracking tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific Basin. Tropical Storm Kujira is the eight-named cyclone in the basin this year and is threatening Southern China, particularly the island of Hainan. The center of Kujira was last located approximately 260km southeast of the city of Haikou. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kujira is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NOAA


Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity near the center of circulation. There hasn't been much change with the intensity of Kujira as wind shear in the South China Sea is keeping the cyclone in check. Nevertheless, Kujira is still bringing widespread rains across the region and will linger for the next few days.

Tropical Storm Kujira is forecast to make landfall in the island of Hainan later tonight. Widespread moderate rains will continue across the region and will even affect parts of Northern Vietnam. The remnants of Kujira will continue pushing northward towards the province of Guangxi with the threat of rainfall lingering through early in the week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Tropical Storm Dolphin Update #10 (FINAL)

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 052015
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Tropical Storm Dolphin is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 850km east of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Dolphin is moving north northeastward at 60kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Dolphin is becoming harder to discern on satellite. Latest image above shows the system becoming more elongated and with convection diminishing in coverage and intensity. The circulation center is starting to unravel and the system as a whole is losing tropical characteristics.

Tropical Storm Dolphin will continue moving northeastward across the Northern Pacific and should eventually become an extra-tropical cyclone. This will be our final update on Dolphin. The rest of the Western Pacific is free from tropical cyclones and we are not seeing any potential development in the next few days.