Friday, November 28, 2014

Tropical Storm Sinlaku Update #4

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 112914
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Tropical Storm Sinlaku (Formerly Bagyong Queenie) continues to slowly intensify as it nears the Vietnamese Coast. The system was last located approximately 600km northeast of Ho Chi Minh City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Sinlaku is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to improve with strong convective activity and tight banding wrapping around the low-level center. Further analysis reveals that an eyewall is trying to form. There is a small possibility of Sinlaku reaching typhoon-strength before it makes landfall in Vietnam later tonight.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will continue moving westward and could make landfall near the cities of Ninh Hoa and Quy Nonh in Central Vietnam. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves will begin battering the coast later this afternoon reaching peak during the evening hours as Sinlaku makes landfall. It will rapidly weaken as it moves over land but will continue to spread rains across Southern Vietnam and parts of Cambodia, Laos, and even Thailand.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Tropical Storm Sinlaku (Queenie) Update #3

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 112814
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Tropical Depression 21W (Bagyong Queenie) has intensified into Tropical Storm Sinlaku this morning as it moves away from the Palawan. The system was last located approximately 230km northwest of Puerto Princesa City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Sinlaku is moving westward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, and Cuyo Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the cluster of clouds associated with TS Sinlaku is now moving away from the Philippines. Rains will continue for Palawan and nearby islands this morning but should end later this afternoon. A low pressure area east of Mindanao, however, will move into the region and could bring another round of rains beginning tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will continue moving quickly westward across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tonight. It could intensify further in the coming days but should not reach Typhoon-status. Tropical Storm Sinlaku is forecast to make landfall in Central Vietnam by Sunday morning.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Tropical Depression 21W (Queenie) Update #2

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 112714
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Tropical Depression 21W (Bagyong Queenie) continues to move across Western Visayas and is currently crossing the island of Negros. The center of circulation of TD 21W was last located approximately 70km south southwest of Bacolod City or about 130km west southwest of Cebu City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 21W is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Southern Cebu (Including Cebu City), Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Guimaras, Iloilo, Antique, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Province, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, and Zamboanga del Norte.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest visible satellite image shows the clouds associated with TD 21W (Queenie) moving across the island of Negros. The system continues to show improvements despite the continuous land interaction. Banding has tightened and the core has become more symmetrical and better defined. TD 21W will likely reach tropical storm strength as it moves into the Sulu Sea later this afternoon. Further intensification is likely, as well.

Tropical Depression 21W (Queenie) will continue moving westward and will soon affect the island of Palawan. Widespread rains continue across parts of Visayas but are starting to end for Mindanao. The islands of Panay, Guimaras, Negros, and Cebu will continue to see widespread moderate rains along with gusty winds. We expect conditions in these areas to improve tonight.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Tropical Update (TD Queenie)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 112614
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A low pressure area moving towards the Philippines has been upgraded into Tropical Depression "Queenie" by PAGASA earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 300km northeast of Davao City and is moving west northwestward at 25kph. Maximum winds around the center are estimated to around 30 to 50kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Surigao del Norte, Surigao Island, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Dinagat Province, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, and Zamboanga del Norte.

VIS Image from NOAA

 
Latest visible satellite image shows TD Queenie moving near Southern Philippines. Rains are now affecting Visayas and parts of Mindanao and will continue to do so over the next 24 to 48 hours. While the system is showing some improvements with regards to structure, it is running out of time for further intensification as landfall is likely to occur by tomorrow. Nevertheless, widespread rains will still threaten the region and can still bring serious consequences in some areas.

Tropical Depression Queenie will continue moving generally westward over the next couple of days. Rains are forecast to continue through Friday before tapering off in the weekend. Up to 300mm of rain is possible in some locations bringing the threat of landslides and flooding. Please heed the warnings of your local officials, especially if you live in storm prone areas.

We'll have another update later today.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Tropical Storm Nuri Update #9 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 110714
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Tropical Storm Nuri is now moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 740km east of Tokyo, Japan with maximum winds of 85kph to 110kph. TS Nuri is moving northeastward at 50kph.

Nuri is completing extra-tropical transition and should be a full-blown mid-latitude cyclone today. It is no longer a threat to Japan. However, Nuri will become a powerful cyclone over the North Pacific and the Bering Sea.

This will be our final update on Nuri. No other tropical cyclones are expected to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.