Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Tropical Storm Dolphin Update #10 (FINAL)

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 052015
__________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm! 

Tropical Storm Dolphin is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 850km east of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Dolphin is moving north northeastward at 60kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Dolphin is becoming harder to discern on satellite. Latest image above shows the system becoming more elongated and with convection diminishing in coverage and intensity. The circulation center is starting to unravel and the system as a whole is losing tropical characteristics.

Tropical Storm Dolphin will continue moving northeastward across the Northern Pacific and should eventually become an extra-tropical cyclone. This will be our final update on Dolphin. The rest of the Western Pacific is free from tropical cyclones and we are not seeing any potential development in the next few days.

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin Update #9

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 051815
_________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Dolphin continues to weaken as it moves farther north across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 530km southwest of Iwo To (Iwo Jima) Island. Maximum sustained winds are down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Dolphin is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Dolphin becoming more asymmetrical this morning with the eye becoming more ragged and convective activity weakening. Dolphin is starting to encounter increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air. It will continue weakening as it moves farther to the north.

Typhoon Dolphin is forecast to move near Iwo To by early Tuesday morning. The island is largely uninhabited except for an airbase. Typhoon-force winds, heavy rains, and high waves are possible here. Dolphin will continue moving northeastward and could also affect the rest of the Ogasawara Islands, including Chichijima which is home to nearly 2000 people. By Wednesday evening, Dolphin is forecast to complete extra-tropical transition and will continue moving across the North Pacific.

We'll have another update later today.

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Super Typhoon Dolphin Update #8

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 051715
_________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Super Typhoon Dolphin is beginning to show signs of weakening after peaking earlier this morning. The eye of Dolphin was last located approximately 760km northwest of Guam or about 800km south southwest of Iwo To (Iwo Jima) in the Ogasawara Islands of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph making Dolphin a Category 4 Super Typhoon. Dolphin is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Dolphin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 Super Typhoon this morning but has since weakened as it starts to move into unfavorable region of the Pacific. The eye is still present but is beginning to be ragged. Furthermore, convective activity has also weakened and is becoming more asymmetrical. Dolphin should continue this slow weakening trend as it moves further north.

Super Typhoon Dolphin is now rounding the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. It will continue turning to the north and eventually to the northeast. It is forecast to move near the Ogasawara Islands of Japan by Tuesday, bringing winds, rains, and high waves across the region. Dolphin is forecast to eventually become an extra-tropical cyclone by Thursday as it moves across the North Pacific.

We'll have another update later today.

Friday, May 15, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin Update #7

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 051615
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Dolphin has rapidly intensified this morning as it pulls away from the Northern Mariana Islands. The eye of Typhoon Dolphin was last located approximately 420km northwest of Guam or about 440km east of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph making Dolphin a Category 4 Typhoon. It is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has dropped all Typhoon Warnings in the Mariana Islands. However, a High Surf Advisory is still in effect in the region as the large circulation from Typhoon Dolphin is still bringing rough sea conditions in the area.

For the latest Official Weather Warnings and Forecasts from NWS, please click HERE

VIS Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the impressive structure of Typhoon Dolphin. An eye is well visible and convective activity surrounding the center is also looking strong and organized. Dolphin is expected to intensify even more in the next 24 to 48 hours as outflow channels will remain favorable as well as the sea surface temperatures in the area.

NWS Forecast Track


Thankfully, Typhoon Dolphin is not expected to affect any land areas in the near term. Latest forecast track from the National Weather Service shows Dolphin curving north and moving northeastward across the Pacific. However, it may impact Iwo To (Iwo Jima) and the rest of the Ogasawara Islands (home to nearly 4000 people) early next week. It is still too early to pinpoint the exact impacts for the islands. However, expect strong winds, high surf, and light to moderate rains to impact the archipelago by Monday and into Tuesday.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Dolphin Update #6

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 051515
_____________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Dolphin is now moving across the Mariana Islands bringing dangerous weather conditions in the region. The center of Dolphin was last located passing between the islands of Guam and Rota; approximately 50km north northeast of Guam or about 170km southwest of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Dolphin is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning fro Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Typhoon-force winds are expected to last in the region through 10pm this evening (local time). However, tropical storm conditions with heavy rains and high waves will last through early morning hours of Saturday. Please click HERE for the latest warnings and forecasts from the NWS

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image highlights the location of Typhoon Dolphin in relation to the Mariana Islands. The system never quite got its act together and remained weaker than our initial forecasts, thankfully. However, Typhoon Dolphin is still pretty dangerous and is still bringing strong winds in and around Guam. In fact, Andersen Air Force Base (northern side of the island) just reported winds of up to 106mph (170kph). Saipan is seeing lower wind speeds as the eye of Dolphin is actually moving more westerly, and will be moving very close to Guam in the next hour.

Radar Image from NWS

 
Latest radar image out of Guam shows the eye of Dolphin moving near the islands of Guam and Rota. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall where intense winds and rains are located. The eyewall is currently moving across the northern portion of Guam and we expect the area to be getting raked at this moment. Unfortunately, the Guam weather radar is now down possibly due to the typhoon. We await further updates from the NWS.

Typhoon Dolphin will quickly move through the region tonight. As mentioned before, expect typhoon-force conditions to eventually end later this evening. Tropical-storm force conditions will last through early morning hours of Saturday. Overall weather conditions should, then, gradually improve tomorrow afternoon. Typhoon Dolphin will be moving northwesterly across the Philippine Sea and eventually turn more to the north by early next week.

We'll have another update in the morning. Stay safe!