Friday, August 1, 2014

Typhoon Halong Update #9

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 080214
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Halong has rapidly intensified overnight into a Category 1 Typhoon! The system was last located approximately 600km north northwest of Yap or about 860km north northeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Halong is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Halong looking more symmetrical this morning. The system has rapidly intensified as wind shear has slightly weakened and radial outflow has become more robust. An eye is also trying to become more organized. We expect continued intensification over the next few days as conditions remain favorable.

Typhoon Halong should turn more to the northwest this weekend. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the local name "Bagyong Jose". However, we don't expect Halong to directly impact the Philippines. Instead, the system may threaten the Japanese Islands in the Ryukyu and Kyushu Areas by the middle of next week.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #8

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 080114
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Tropical Storm Halong has intensified as it continues to move across the Philippine Sea. The storm was last located approximately 580km north of Yap or about 770km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Halong is moving west northwest at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


We're seeing some improvements this evening with regards to Halong's organization. A central dense overcast has become more symmetrical with ample convective activity. Further analysis reveals that the eyewall continues to improve as well and may be completely established overnight. We could even see Halong become a Typhoon by tomorrow at this rate.

Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will start turning more to the north as the sub-tropical ridge weakens. Environmental conditions will be favorable for further intensification and could see Halong become a Category 2 Typhoon by next week. Latest computer models are taking Halong towards the Japanese Islands by the middle of next week.

Tropical Storm Nakri Update #2

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 080114
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Tropical Storm Nakri continues to move across the East China Sea. The storm was last located approximately 420km east southeast of Shanghai or about 500km north northwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Nakri is moving northwest at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the large circulation of Nakri devoid of central convection. However, the outer periphery has strong convective bands that are bringing strong winds and heavy rains across the Japanese Islands. Many places, including Okinawa, reported seeing up to typhoon-force winds this afternoon, along with periods of heavy rain. This despite the Joint Typhoon Warning Center not issuing any warnings for this system. Kadena Air Base went to TCCOR Storm Watch, however, due to the threat of the strong winds.

Tropical Storm Nakri will continue moving generally northward over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will pass east of Shanghai but could still bring strong winds of up to 100kph along the Chinese coast. Meanwhile, Kyushu and parts of South Korea will begin to see light to moderate rains tonight, along with strong winds. Nakri is forecast to move into the Korean Peninsula by Monday bringing stormy conditions in the region.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Halong Update #7

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080114
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Tropical Storm Halong continues to battle strong wind shear as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 600km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Halong is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows convection remains strong, especially along the southern flank. Halong exhibited improvements last night with an expanding central dense overcast and banding around the center. However, wind shear increased again this morning leaving the northern half struggling for development. Nevertheless, we still expect Halong to recover and resume intensification in the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)


Tropical Storm Halong is forecast to continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will turn more to the northwest as the sub-tropical ridge weakens. Environmental conditions will become more favorable and should allow Halong to reach Typhoon-strength this weekend. Latest computer model runs put Halong near the Japanese Islands by the middle part of next week.

We'll have another update on Halong and Nakri later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Halong Update #6

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 073114
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Tropical Storm Halong is starting to show some improvements today as wind shear weakens in the region. The storm was last located approximately 480km west northwest of Guam or about 540km west of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Halong is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased and become more expansive. The low-level center which was fully exposed earlier this morning is now under the cloud canopy, suggesting that the upper-level winds are finally starting to relax. We could see further intensification happen tonight.

Tropical Storm Halong will continue moving west northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. It will then start turning more to the northwest and then to the north by early next week. Long-range forecasts suggest that Halong may impact the Japanese Islands by the middle part of next week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.