Friday, October 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Nuri (Paeng) Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 110114
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Tropical Storm Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea this morning. The system was last located approximately 620km northwest of Yap or about 940km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nuri is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast is now developing characterized by strong convective activity over the low-level circulation center. Formative banding also continues to improve and initial signs of eyewall formation is also observed. Nuri remains in an area of generally favorable environment which should lead to further intensification in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Nuri will continue moving west northwestward but should recurve to the north beginning tomorrow. It will also continue intensifying and could be upgraded into a Typhoon in the next 24 hours. With an early recurvature, Nuri should avoid making a direct impact in the Philippines. However, parts of the country may still see some rain showers as the southwesterly flow enhances precipitation.

Long-range forecasts hint of a possible impact for parts of Japan by the middle of next week. We urge continued monitoring for people living in the region.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Tropical Depression 20W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 103114
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A new Tropical Depression has formed across the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 20W was last located approximately 400km north northwest of Yap or about 830km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 20W is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows a quickly-developing system with tight banding and increasing convective activity around the low-level center. Further analysis also shows increasing wind speeds around the center along with a rapidly-improving core. TD 20W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Further intensification is likely over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 20W is forecast to continue moving westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. TD 20W may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the name 'Bagyong Paeng' by PAGASA. Further intensification is also likely and we could see TD 20W becoming a tropical storm by today and possibly a typhoon by early next week.

While it is still too early to determine the exact track for TD 20W we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to the Japanese Islands to continue to monitor the progress of this newly-developed cyclone. We'll have our next update later today.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #15 (FINAL)

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves away from Japan. The system was last located approximately 400km southeast of Sapporo or about 630km northeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 65pkh with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 70kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong is nearing the extra-tropical transition. Convection is asymmetrical, circulation center has elongated, and frontal boundaries have begun to develop. Wind speeds of up to 80kph are still being reported especially along the coast of Hokkaido but that should weaken later today.

Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today as a mid-latitude cyclone. The remaining rains in Northern Honshu and Hokkaido should end later today as the system moves into the North Pacific.

This is our Final Update for Tropical Storm Vongfong. There are no other tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific as of this time.

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #14

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now beginning to exit the island of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 440km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 50kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong taking on the characteristics of a frontal system. Circulation center has become elongated and difficult to discern on the satellite. Convection has also weakened significantly and is mainly found on the northern periphery. Winds have also weakened although reports of up to 80kph are still present especially along the coast.

Radar Image from JMA


Aside from the winds, widespread light to moderate rains have moved north towards the Tohoku Region in Honshu as well as in the island of Hokkaido. Much of Japan received 50 to as much as 200mm of rainfall due to Vongfong. We are expecting around 50 to 100mm to fall today across Northern Japan.

For the latest radar images, click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today. It is forecast to also become fully extra-tropical within the next 12 hours. Rains across Northern Honshu and Hokkaido will continue this morning but should taper off this afternoon. Rest of Japan should also expect clearing weather today.

We'll have another update later today.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #13 (LANDFALL)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101314
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Vongfong has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 150km northeast of Kagoshima or about 430km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Vongfong is moving east northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong continuing to deteriorate as it moves across the Japanese Islands. The center is becoming free of convection as dry air continues to get mixed into the circulation. Vongfong is forecast to become a fully extra-tropical cyclone by tomorrow as it moves into the North Pacific Ocean.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Heavy rains associated with Vongfong are now moving eastward into Shikoku and the regions of Chugoku, Kinki, and Chubu in the island of Honshu. Rainfall rates of up to 60mm/hr have been recorded in some places. Up to 300mm of rainfall is possible in many areas, especially in mountainous regions. Residents are advised to coordinate with their local officials and always follow their warnings and advisories!

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the east northeast today. It will pass near the cities of Osaka, Tokyo, and Nagoya later this afternoon bringing inclement weather in these metro areas. Vongfong will continue rapidly weakening as it moves across Honshu but the threat of heavy rains will continue for Kanto and the Tohoku Regions later tonight. By tomorrow (Tuesday), Vongfong is forecast to exit into the North Pacific Ocean as a extra-tropical cyclone.

We'll have another update later today.