Thursday, July 7, 2016

Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) Update #5

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070716
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Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) is now nearing landfall in Southern Taiwan. The eye of Nepartak was last located approximately 200km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 370km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Nepartak has slightly weakened with maximum sustained winds of around 270kph with gusts of up to 325kph. STY Nepartak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands and Signal #1 for Babuyan Group of Islands. Winds of 60-100kph should be expected in these islands, along with the threat of moderate to heavy rains and high waves.

IR Image from NRLMRY


Latest satellite image shows Super Typhoon Nepartak nearing Taiwan. The eye has slightly increased in diameter due to an eyewall replacement cycle that occurred this morning. The successful of the ERC has limited the weakening normally associated with this event. As of this time, Nepartak remains a very powerful and potentially destructive typhoon.

CWB-Taiwan Radar Image

 
Latest radar image out of Taiwan, courtesy of the Central Weather Bureau, shows the near-perfect eye of Nepartak surrounded by heavy rainfall. The inner rain bands are soon to impact the eastern coast with more rainfall eventually overspreading the region as the night goes on. Rainfall amounts of up to 600mm are possible, especially across mountainous areas. Even parts of Batanes and Babuyan Islands will experience periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times, eventually tapering off tomorrow morning.

For the latest radar image and Taiwan weather forecasts, please click HERE (CWB Taiwan)

Super Typhoon Nepartak is forecast to make landfall in Southern Taiwan, along Taitung County, later this evening. Winds in excess of 200kph are possible especially in exposed areas near the coast. Along with destructive winds, we are also expecting high waves and very heavy rainfall. Nepartak will rapidly weaken as it crosses the Taiwan Region. However, it is forecast to retain typhoon intensity and possibly make a second landfall, this time in Fujian Province of Southeastern China. Heavy rains and strong winds are also forecast for Fujian and nearby provinces beginning later tonight and lasting through tomorrow.

Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Super Typhoon Nepartak (Butchoy) Update #4

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070616
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Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) continues to intensify as it nears Taiwan. The eye of Nepartak was last located approximately 580km east of Basco, Batanes or about 840km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 280kph with gusts of up to 335kph. STY Nepartak is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Winds of up to 60kph, moderate wave heights, and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected to occur within the next 36 hours.

IR Image from FNMOC

 
Latest satellite image shows the menacing Super Typhoon Nepartak with its pinhole eye surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. The image above also shows the excellent poleward outflow together with the spiral bands associated with the typhoon. We have also highlighted the enhanced southwesterly flow bringing widespread rains across the Philippines. Nepartak will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing rains across the archipelago over the next 2 days or so.

JTWC Forecast Track

 
Super Typhoon Nepartak will continue moving northwestward and could still possible intensify over the next 24 hours. It may very well make landfall in Taiwan tomorrow afternoon (Thursday) as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. Damaging winds in excess of 200kph, along with very heavy rainfall (possibly up to 600mm in some places), are possible especially along the eastern coast of Taiwan. The mountainous terrain of Taiwan will induce significant weakening for Nepartak but will remain a strong and damaging typhoon for at least another 12 hours after landfall. Even parts of Southeastern China will experience stormy conditions by Thursday evening and into Friday.

For our readers in this region, especially in Taiwan, please start making your preparations now (if you haven't done so) for this incoming typhoon. As always, stay safe and heed the warnings of your local official agency.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) Update #3

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 070516
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Nepartak continues to intensify today and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. It has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has subsequently assigned the local name 'Bagyong Butchoy' by PAGASA. The center of Typhoon Nepartak was last located approximately 1,450km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a faint eye-feature beginning to appear. The said eye feature is surrounded by deep convective activity along with good radial outflow. The eyewall has also greatly improved over the past 12 hours. Good environment conditions along the path of Nepartak will allow for further intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.

JTWC Forecast Track

 
The latest forecast consensus among computer models and other weather agencies along the region shows a general track to the northwest that may take Nepartak near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands by Wednesday afternoon. One such scenario is posted above, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's later Forecast Track.

Caution and initial preparations for residents living in the said region should commence at this point, especially if we see further intensification from Nepartak. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, should always be expected for a storm with this caliber.

As for the Philippines, Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) is currently not forecast to directly impact the archipelago. However, expect the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) to be enhanced by the circulation of this typhoon. Widespread rainfall across the country, particularly across Western Luzon and Visayas regions, should be expected for the rest of this week.

We'll have another update for Nepartak tomorrow morning. As always, heed the warnings from your official weather agencies and always stay safe!

Monday, July 4, 2016

Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #2

Issued (0730 UTC) 070416 330pm PhT
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Tropical Storm Nepartak has slightly intensified as it begins to pull away from the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 420km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Nepartak remains a run-of-the-mill Tropical Storm based on the latest satellite imagery. Strong convective activity emanating from the circulation center continues to consolidate and grow. Some dry air intrusion have been limiting intensification so far. However, we expect Nepartak to continue intensifying over the next few days as good upper-level environment and high ocean heat content will provide conditions for further strengthening.

Forecasts for Tropical Storm Nepartak generally remains the same. We are still expecting a continued movement to the northwest over the course of the storm's lifetime. Model consensus has remained showing a possible track towards East Asia, particularly near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands as we move into the latter part of the week.

And while the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (Tuesday), and will be named Bagyong Butchoy by PAGASA, we don't expect any direct impacts from Nepartak. However, the storm will eventually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) which will bring widespread rains across the country, particularly parts of Luzon and Visayas.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #1

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 0701416
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After a quiet start to the 2016, the Western Pacific finally has its first named cyclone of the season. Tropical Storm Nepartak is consolidating near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 360km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity beginning to consolidate near the circulation center. Banding has also improved over the past few hours. Nepartak is moving in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures which will only help the system gain strength over the coming days.

Tropical Storm Nepartak is forecast to move northeastward over the Philippine Sea and will be named Bagyong Butchoy as it enters the PAR by Tuesday morning.. As of this time, the computer model consensus does not show Nepartak directly affecting the Philippines. However, the southwest monsoon (Habagat) may be enhanced bringing higher chances of rainfall across the country.

Tropical Storm Nepartak is also forecast to continue intensifying and may reach typhoon-intensity by the middle of this week. Long-range forecasts also show Nepartak possibly affecting Eastern Asia by the end of this week.