Sunday, April 5, 2015

Tropical Depression Maysak (Chedeng) Update #13 (FINAL)

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 040615
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Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is now dissipating over the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). The center of Maysak was last located approximately 330km northwest of Laoag City, Philippines or about 480km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum winds are at 35 to 60kph. Maysak is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

PAGASA has lowered all their Public Storm Warning Signals

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Maysak looking very disorganized now with the inner-core almost non-existent. However, occasional light to moderate rains are still possible especially across Southern Taiwan and parts of Southern China.

This is our final update on Maysak (Chedeng). A Tropical Cyclone has formed near the Caroline Islands (Tropical Storm Haishen) but is expected to remain over water and eventually dissipate due to strong wind shear in the region.

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Tropical Storm Maysak (Chedeng) Update #12

Issued (0130 UTC) 0930am PhT 040515
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Tropical Storm Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) continues to weaken as it nears making landfall in Northern Luzon. The storm center was last located approximately 80km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 280km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Maysak is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

Due to the weakened nature of the Chedeng, PAGASA has lowered Public Storm Warning Signals #2 and #3. However, Signal #1 is still in effect for Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, and Polilio Island. Residents in the said areas are still advised to prepare for strong winds as well as widespread heavy rains.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity associated with Tropical Storm Maysak nearing the island of Luzon. The core of Maysak continues to deteriorate and we expect the system to dissipate as it crosses Luzon today. However, Maysak will still bring dangerous weather conditions today especially across Northern Luzon.

Radar Image from PAGASA (DOST)

 
Latest radar image from Baler, Aurora shows bands of light to moderate rains moving towards Luzon. Expect wet weather conditions to spread into much of Central and Northern Luzon. Even parts of Metro Manila may see some rain showers today. However, the bulk of heavy rains will likely fall across the Cordillera Region where as much as 200mm of accumulation is possible. Landslides and flash floods are possible so residents are advised to remain cautious against these threats.

For the latest Weather Warnings and Forecasts from PAGASA, please click HERE

Tropical Storm Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) is forecast to make landfall in the Aurora-Isabela border within the next 3-6 hours. The system will rapidly lose strength and even dissipate as it crosses Luzon today. However, rains will likely linger across the region through tomorrow.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Maysak (Chedeng) Update #11

Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 040415
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Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) has now weakened to a Tropical Storm as it moves closer to the Philippines. The storm center was last located approximately 140km north of Virac, Catanduanes or about 340km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Maysak is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 11pm this evening, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Isabela and Aurora.

Signal #2 for Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Nueva Ecija, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Catanduanes.

Signal #1 for Rest of Cagayan, Babuyan Island, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.


IR Image from NRMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Maysak becoming more elongated as it continues to suffer from strong shear in the region. Tropical Storm Maysak is also close enough that some of its rainbands are starting to affect parts of the Bicol Region particularly in Catanduanes and Camarines Provinces. We expect those light to moderate rains to continue through the morning hours.

Tropical Storm Maysak will continue moving northwestward and eventually make landfall near Casiguran, Aurora tomorrow morning. Widespread rains are expected across Central and Northern Luzon which can cause landslides and flash floods. Parts of Metro Manila may see some rain showers tomorrow as well. Maysak will exit Luzon tomorrow evening.

We'll have our next update tomorrow morning.

Friday, April 3, 2015

Typhoon Maysak (Chedeng) Update #10

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 040415
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Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) continues to weaken and is now down to a Category 1 Typhoon. The center of Maysak was last located approximately 240km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 550km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Maysak is moving westward at 25kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, and Catanduanes.

Signal #1 is in effect for the rest of Cagayan, Babuyan Island, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.

The provinces listed above are expected to feel the effects from Chedeng within the next 24 hours. Residents living in these areas should coordinate with their local officials for the latest warnings and evacuation orders if there are any.

IR Image from NRLRMY

 
Latest satellite image continues to show a much weaker Maysak compared to yesterday. However, please do not underestimate this Typhoon as it can still bring dangerous conditions once it makes landfall in Northern Luzon tomorrow. Heavy rains and strong winds are still expected, especially along the coastal areas of Aurora and Isabela Provinces.

Typhoon Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) is moving closer to the Philippines and its outer rain bands will start bringing light to moderate rains across the Bicol Region, particularly in Catanduanes. These rains showers will spread northwestward and will eventually impact parts of Central and Northern Luzon.

Maysak is forecast to make landfall near the Aurora-Isabela border, just north of Casiguran by 8am tomorrow morning (Sunday). It will cross Northern Luzon bringing heavy rains across the region. It will also continue weakening, becoming a minimal tropical storm as it exits into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by tomorrow evening.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Typhoon Maysak (Chedeng) Update #9

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT
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Typhoon Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) continues to weaken as it moves slowly towards the Philippines. The system was last located approximately 550km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 880km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Maysak is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela, Aurora, Quirino, Quezon, Polilio Island, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Residents are advised to continue monitoring the developments of this typhoon and always heed the warnings of local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY


We're seeing a much different Maysak today on satellite. Strong wind shear and the presence of dry air have both led to the continued weakening of Maysak. Fortunately, this typhoon should continue weakening before it moves towards the Philippines.

Typhoon Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) is forecast to make landfall near the Aurora-Isabela Provinces border by early Sunday morning. Due to the unfavorable conditions in the region, we expect Maysak to weaken to a Tropical Storm before making landfall in Luzon. Despite the weakness, we still expect widespread rains to fall in Northern Luzon which can cause flooding and landslides especially in mountainous areas.

Maysak will, then, exit into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Sunday afternoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.