Monday, October 13, 2014

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #15 (FINAL)

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves away from Japan. The system was last located approximately 400km southeast of Sapporo or about 630km northeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 65pkh with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 70kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong is nearing the extra-tropical transition. Convection is asymmetrical, circulation center has elongated, and frontal boundaries have begun to develop. Wind speeds of up to 80kph are still being reported especially along the coast of Hokkaido but that should weaken later today.

Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today as a mid-latitude cyclone. The remaining rains in Northern Honshu and Hokkaido should end later today as the system moves into the North Pacific.

This is our Final Update for Tropical Storm Vongfong. There are no other tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific as of this time.

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #14

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 101414
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Tropical Storm Vongfong is now beginning to exit the island of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 440km northeast of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Vongfong is moving northeastward at 50kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong taking on the characteristics of a frontal system. Circulation center has become elongated and difficult to discern on the satellite. Convection has also weakened significantly and is mainly found on the northern periphery. Winds have also weakened although reports of up to 80kph are still present especially along the coast.

Radar Image from JMA


Aside from the winds, widespread light to moderate rains have moved north towards the Tohoku Region in Honshu as well as in the island of Hokkaido. Much of Japan received 50 to as much as 200mm of rainfall due to Vongfong. We are expecting around 50 to 100mm to fall today across Northern Japan.

For the latest radar images, click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the northeast today. It is forecast to also become fully extra-tropical within the next 12 hours. Rains across Northern Honshu and Hokkaido will continue this morning but should taper off this afternoon. Rest of Japan should also expect clearing weather today.

We'll have another update later today.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Vongfong Update #13 (LANDFALL)

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101314
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Vongfong has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 150km northeast of Kagoshima or about 430km southwest of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Vongfong is moving east northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows Vongfong continuing to deteriorate as it moves across the Japanese Islands. The center is becoming free of convection as dry air continues to get mixed into the circulation. Vongfong is forecast to become a fully extra-tropical cyclone by tomorrow as it moves into the North Pacific Ocean.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Heavy rains associated with Vongfong are now moving eastward into Shikoku and the regions of Chugoku, Kinki, and Chubu in the island of Honshu. Rainfall rates of up to 60mm/hr have been recorded in some places. Up to 300mm of rainfall is possible in many areas, especially in mountainous regions. Residents are advised to coordinate with their local officials and always follow their warnings and advisories!

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Tropical Storm Vongfong will continue moving quickly to the east northeast today. It will pass near the cities of Osaka, Tokyo, and Nagoya later this afternoon bringing inclement weather in these metro areas. Vongfong will continue rapidly weakening as it moves across Honshu but the threat of heavy rains will continue for Kanto and the Tohoku Regions later tonight. By tomorrow (Tuesday), Vongfong is forecast to exit into the North Pacific Ocean as a extra-tropical cyclone.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Vongfong Update #12

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 101214
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Typhoon Vongfong continues to move closer to the island of Kyushu. The system was last located approximately 300km southwest of the city of Kagoshima. Maximum sustained winds are down to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving north northeastward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to weaken and become asymmetrical. Wind field has also spread unevenly. Further analysis suggest Vongfong is beginning to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, stormy conditions will still be a threat for Mainland Japan in the next 2 days.

Radar Image from JMA


Latest radar image from the Japan Meteorological Agency showing bands of light to moderate rains already affecting Kyushu and even pushing as far east already as Shikoku. Winds of up to 100kph are also starting to be reported along the coastal areas in the region. High waves of up to 5 meters are also possible and the JMA has issued a plethora of weather warnings for different prefectures in the region.

For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Vongfong will continue to weaken and should become a Tropical Storm before it makes landfall in Kyushu tomorrow morning (Monday). It will move near Kagoshima, cross Kyushu, and then move into Shikoku. It will also move near the cites of Osaka, Kyoto, and Nagoya by Monday afternoon and evening. We expect a general 100 to 200mm of rain to fall across the islands over the next 24 hours. Vongfong will then become completely extra-tropical by Tuesday as it moves into Northern Honshu and eventually exit into the North Pacific Ocean.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Typhoon Vongfong Update #11

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 101214
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Typhoon Vongfong has weakened to a Category 1 as it moves away from the Ryukyu Islands. The center of Vongfong was last located approximately 190km north northwest of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Vongfong is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection has weakened around Vongfong's circulation center. Dry air from the north and increasing wind shear are inducing some quick weakening with the core beginning to erode. Nevertheless, strong winds especially near the center and light to moderate rains will still pose a threat to Kyushu.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image shows rain showers are ending across Amami and nearby islands in the Ryukyus. Meanwhile, rains are beginning to move north into Kyushu. Winds of up to 180kph were recorded in Okinawa last night along with periods of heavy rains. Some communities are without power right now due to the stormy conditions.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Weather conditions across the Ryukyu Islands will continue to improve today with the stormy weather shifting north towards the island of Kyushu. Typhoon Vongfong is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Storm by tonight and make landfall in Kyushu by tomorrow morning (Monday). Strong winds, high waves, and widespread rains will threaten the region over the next 24 to 48 hours. Vongfong will move northeastward across Shikoku and Honshu moving near the cities of Osaka and Nagoya.

We'll have another update later today.