Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Tropical Depression 30W Update #1

Issued (1730 UTC) 0130am PhT 122216

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The 2016 Typhoon Season is coming to a close but the tropics may be giving us one more storm to track. A Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific Ocean tonight and may pose a threat to the Philippine Islands this Christmas.

Tropical Depression 30W was last located approximately 380km southeast of Yap or about 680km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 30W is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to slowly build over the low-level circulation center. Convective activity ahead of the circulation is also beginning to move into Yap this evening. Rain and gusty winds will prevail in that area, together with Palau, for the next 24 hours. TD 30W is located in an area of marginally favorable environment and we should see the system slowly develop in the coming days.

IR Image from NOAA

Tropical Depression 30W will continue moving generally west northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Numerous computer models are in generally good agreement with bringing TD 30W towards the Philippine Islands as early as Saturday morning (December 24). However, the said models still vary as to how strong TD 30W when it does impact the Philippines.

While it is still too early to tell exactly which areas will be directly impacted by TD 30W, we urge everyone especially across Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon to closely monitor the developments of this tropical system.

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