Thursday, December 22, 2016

Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Nina) Update #2

Issued (05 UTC) 01pm PhT 122316

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A Christmas-Day cyclone is threatening the Philippine Islands and could even intensify into a typhoon before landfall. Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 620km east northeast of Tacloban, Leyte. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Nock-ten is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Nock-ten becoming much better organized this morning. A central dense overcast has developed along with good poleward outflow. Environmental conditions have improved as well and will likely result in further intensification for Nock-ten in the next 24 to 48 hours. Depending on the rate of intensification, Nock-ten may become a typhoon later this evening, and possibly peak as a Category 3 Typhoon before coming ashore in the Philippines.

Forecast Track from JTWC (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models and numerous forecast agencies are in excellent agreement over the track of Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The map above shows the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center showing Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) moving in a west northwesterly direction. A landfall somewhere in the Bicol Region is possibly by Sunday morning (Christmas Day). However, impacts will be felt as far south as Eastern and Central Visayas; and as far north as Southern and Central Luzon.

Metro Manila and nearby areas may also see typhoon-force conditions Sunday into Monday. Due to the timing of the impacts, Nock-ten is a potentially dangerous storm and should be seriously monitored in the coming days. If you are in the projected path of the storm, please consider starting any preparations today and tomorrow.

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