Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #2 [FINAL]

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121815
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) is now dissipating just east of Mindanao today. The remnant circulation was last located approximately 320km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is moving west southwestward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur including Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sur, Northern part of Davao Occidental, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao, North Cotabato, Northern part of South Cotabato, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows disorganized convection associated with the remnant circulation of TD 29W continues to affect portions of Visayas and Mindanao. Bright clouds bringing heavy rains can be seen moving across Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, and Northern Mindanao. Some of these rains can bring as much as 10-20mm/hour. Total rainfall accumulations of up to 200mm may also be recorded in some spots.

Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) will continue dissipating as it tracks towards Mindanao. The remnant circulation is forecast to move inland later this evening with its associated convection forecast to linger across Southern Philippines over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Tropical Depression 29W. No other Tropical Cyclones are forecast to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.

Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #1

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121815
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) continues to move closer to the Philippine Islands this morning. The center of 29W was last located approximately 460km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur, Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sure, and North Cotabato.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection associated with TD 29W have begun to move in to parts of Visayas and Mindanao bringing widespread light to moderate rains. TD 29W itself, however, is struggling to maintain organization due to unfavorable conditions in the area. The low-level circulation center is left fully exposed and we don't expect any intensification occurring as it tracks towards Southern Philippines.

COAMPS 48-hr Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Despite the lack of intensification, we are still expecting widespread heavy rains to affect portions of Southern Philippines. The image above shows a 48-hour forecast for rainfall accumulations and we can see areas receiving up to 200mm (if not more) of rainfall during that period. Landslides and flashfloods are possible especially in areas placed by PAGASA under Signal #1.

If you live in these areas, please consult your local officials for the latest warnings in regards to the approaching depression.

Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121715
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now weakening significantly over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and is now down to minimal Tropical Storm-strength. The storm center was last located approximately 140km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Melor is currently moving southwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Pangasinan and Zambales. All other Signal Warnings have now been lifted by the agency.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Melor and the newly-developed Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok). Melor is now struggling to maintain its structure as unfavorable conditions are now prevailing across the West Philippine Sea. However, we are still seeing strong convection affecting parts of Central and Northern Luzon. We expect these rain showers to continue throughout the day today.

Tropical Storm Melor will continue weakening today, eventually becoming a Depression later this afternoon. It will also continue to move southwestward away from the Philippines. Rains across Luzon should gradually taper off in the next 12 to 24 hours.

With the departure of Melor, we now have to monitor the incoming Tropical Depression Onyok. Thankfully, this system is not forecast to intensify as much as Melor did. However, it is still forecast to bring widespread rains across parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #4

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121615
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) has weakened to Category 1 but continues to bring widespread heavy rains across many areas in Luzon. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 100km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Northern Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island. Signal #2 for Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Northern Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro. Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Bulacan, Laguna, Calamian Islands, and the rest of Oriental Mindoro.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows the Typhoon Melor lingering just west of the province of Batangas. However, rain clouds are still covering much of Luzon bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains. Melor crossed the island of Mindoro last night as a Category 4 Typhoon and has since weakened. Nevertheless, we expect stormy conditions especially along the western portions of Central and Southern Luzon to continue.

Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is forecast to slowly weaken as a cold surge from the north will bring unfavorable conditions for this cyclone. Melor is also forecast to begin turning more to the south and will continue tracking across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Rain showers are forecast to remain across parts of Luzon and Palawan over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121415
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now skirting the coast of Northern Samar bringing potentially dangerous winds, heavy rains, and storm surge across the region The eye of Melor was last located approximately 20km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving westward at 20kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.

Signal #2 for Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Southern Quezon, and Leyte.

Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Lubang Island, Coron, Cavite, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Camotes Island, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Negros Occidental, Northern Iloilo, Dinagat Province, and Siargao Island.

VIS Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Latest close-up image of Typhoon Melor shows the southern eyewall moving along the coast of Northern Samar. Winds of up to 200kph are occurring around this area along with very heavy rainfall and high waves. Parts of the Bicol Region, especially Sorsogon and Legazpi, should also be experiencing rapidly deteriorating conditions this afternoon. Later this afternoon, the islands of Masbate and Ticao will be experiencing the full brunt of Melor.

IR Image from RAMMB-CIRA

 
Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) will continue moving generally westward today. Stormy conditions will persist across Bicol and Samar/Leyte area through the evening and will slowly spread towards the west encompassing Southern Luzon and Central Visayas. Winds of up to 160kph are possible near the center of the storm and rainfall amounts of up to 300mm are likely along the path.

Typhoon Melor will linger in the Philippines through Wednesday morning before moving towards the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). We urge residents along the impacted areas to remain vigilant and to always heed the warnings from your local officials!

Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #2

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121315
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) has rapidly intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon this morning. The eye of Typhoon Melor was last located approximately 420km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat Province.

IR Image from FNMOC

 
Latest satellite image shows a pinhole eye that is becoming more defined by the hour. This small eye is surrounded by increasingly deep convective activity. We can also see a very robust poleward outflow on the northern half of the circulation providing good ventilation. Melor will continue to move across very favorable conditions in the Philippine Sea allowing for further intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Typhoon Melor will continue moving in a general west northwestward direction. As of this time, residents along the Bicol Region and Visayas area to closely monitor the developments of Melor. Based on the latest information, Melor is forecast to possibly make landfall near Samar tomorrow morning (Monday) as a strong Category 3 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong damaging winds, and storm surge will be threatening the region tomorrow.

If you are living along the eastern coasts of Bicol and Visayas, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Consider starting preparations for the impending typhoon. We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 121215
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Tropical Storm Melor (Bagyong Nona) is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific this year. The system is continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 360km north northwest of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from JMA

 
Latest satellite image shows convective banding continues to consolidate and tighten around the low-level center. Despite the relatively weak presentation on satellite, we are noticing much better organization thanks to the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and excellent radial outflow. Melor should be able to slowly intensify over the next few days as it moves across open waters.

Latest forecast model consensus, as well as the latest tracks from forecast agencies in the region, shows Tropical Storm Melor continuing its current west northwestward movement. It will also likely to continue intensifying and may even reach typhoon status later this weekend. As for the track, the consensus is showing a track possibly towards the Bicol Region or the Samar/Leyte area.

We urge residents across Eastern Luzon and Visayas to continue closely monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Melor (Nona). Expect weather conditions to begin deteriorating by late Sunday evening across the region. If the system does make landfall in the Philippines, we expect this to happen around Tuesday morning.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Typhoon In-Fa Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 112015
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In-Fa has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The center of Typhoon In-Fa was last located approximately 520km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon In-Fa is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

In anticipation of the oncoming typhoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guam. The NWS is warning for possible strong winds of up to 100kph affecting the region within the next 24 hours.

For the latest warnings from NWS, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast has developed with a pinhole eye in the center. Strong convection continues to expand as well, being aided by excellent radial outflow and weak wind shear. In-Fa will continue to intensify and may become a Category 3 Typhoon by tomorrow.

Forecast Track from the NWS

 
The latest OFFICIAL Forecast Track from the National Weather Service in Guam shows Typhoon In-Fa tracking generally west northwestward over the next few days. The eye of In-Fa is forecast to pass within 300km to the south of Guam by Saturday morning. While the center will be passing far from Guam, tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph are still possible across Guam and nearby islands. Showery precipitation and high waves are also forecast to dominate the weather in the region.

Typhoon In-Fa is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday evening and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Marilyn.' However, we are not expecting In-Fa to directly impact the Philippines. It is forecast to eventually recurve to the north by Tuesday away from any land areas.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm In-Fa Update #2

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 111815
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Tropical Depression 27W has intensified into Tropical Storm In-Fa and continues to quickly consolidate as it moves across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 240km southwest of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS In-Fa is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued several Typhoon Warnings and Watches across the numerous islands and atolls across the Caroline Islands, particularly in Chuuk. Typhoon-force winds of more than 120kph (74mph) are possible in some locations. 

For the latest official warnings and forecasts, please head to the NWS Website by clicking HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a much improved cyclone with tightly-curved convective banding wrapping around the circulation. An eye-feature is also beginning to form which is a sign of further intensification. TS In-Fa is located in a highly conducive environment with excellent radial outflow, warm sea temperatures, and light wind shear. We expect continued intensification in the coming days.

Tropical Storm In-Fa is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward and may move near Chuuk by tomorrow morning as a Category 1 Typhoon. Medium-range forecasts and consensus among the computer models suggest a potential path towards Guam and the Marianas Islands. Right now, it's still uncertain how close In-Fa will get to Guam but expect stormy conditions to still impact the region in one way or another this weekend.

Residents in the region are advised to heed the official warnings and forecasts of their local government. Stay safe!

Tropical Depression 27W Update #1

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT111715
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After nearly a month of inactivity, a new Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific this morning. Tropical Depression 27W is currently moving near the Caroline Islands and was last located approximately 530km southeast of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 27W is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the location of TD 27W. The system is still in the early stages of development with the low-level center becoming more consolidated. We expect continued intensification as TD 27W will be moving through conducive environment in the Pacific.

Current computer model tracks all show a general west northwestward movement in the coming days. Continued intensification is likely and may help TD 27W reach typhoon-strength later this week. Furthermore, current consensus shows a track that may take 27W near Guam and the Marianas Islands this weekend.

We urge residents in the region to continue monitoring the progress of Tropical Depression 27W.

Typhoon Koppu (Lando) Update #3 [LANDFALL]

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 101815
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Typhoon Koppu (Bagyong Lando) has made landfall near the town of Casiguran, Aurora earlier this morning. Koppu is now moving across Northern Luzon with center being last located approximately. Typhoon Koppu is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #4 for Aurora.

Signal #3 for Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Ifugao, Northern Quezon, Polilio Islands.

Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Islands, Benguet, Mt. Province, Kalinga, Apayao, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, rest of Quezon, and Metro Manila.

Signal #1 for Zambales, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Abra, Camarines Norte, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and Batanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the expansive Central Dense Overcast of Typhoon Koppu moving over much of Luzon. Koppu briefly attained Super Typhoon intensity before making landfall in Aurora at about 1am Philippine Time. While the eye is no longer visible, the core remains intact and the overall structure is still highly developed. Expect typhoon-force winds of up to 160kph to still be present very near the center of Koppu.

Aside from the strong winds, very heavy rains continue to affect much of Central and Northern Luzon. Rain showers are beginning to weaken across the Bicol Region. However, up north, we are expecting an additional 200 to as much as 400mm of rain over the next 48 hours. The threat of landslides and widespread flooding are still possible in many areas.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Koppu (Lando) Update #2

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PHT 101715
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Koppu (Bagyong Lando) rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm less than 48 hours ago and now to a Category 3 Typhoon. The system is also beginning to approach the island of Luzon in the Philippines with the eye last located approximately 200km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 330km northeast of Metro Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Koppu is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Ifugao, Northern Quezon, Polilio Islands.

Signal #2 for Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Islands, Benguet, Mt. Province, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Pangasinan, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes.

Signal #1 for Batanes, Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Albay, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a large central dense overcast with very strong convective activity in all quadrants. We are also starting to see the eye becoming clearer this morning. Dual outflow channels have also significantly improved and is helping drive the intensification that we are currently seeing. The warm waters of the Philippine Sea and weak wind shear will promote further intensification over the next 6 to 12 hours. This is a very dangerous typhoon and should not be taken lightly by the residents in the area, especially in Northern Luzon.

COAMPS 72-hour Accumulated Rainfall Output (FNMOC)

 
Typhoon Koppu is forecast to bring significant amounts of rainfall for much of Luzon. The worse part is the fact that the system is moving very slowly which will prolong the period of heavy rainfall, especially along the path of the typhoon. A recent computer model output shows as much as 500mm of rainfall in some places in Northern and Central Luzon. Please note that the image above is just one of the many computer model generated outputs that we use and is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. However, it gives us a general idea on what to expect regarding Typhoon Koppu. Widespread flooding and landslides should be expected in the regions under a Signal Warning, especially near flood-prone and mountainous areas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Koppu (Bagyong Lando) is forecast to continue moving slowly westward and may intensify into a Category 4 Typhoon later this evening. The eye is forecast to make landfall in the province of Aurora (near the town of Casiguran) tomorrow morning (Sunday). However, heavy rains and strong winds should be felt later today along the coastal sections. Rains will spread west across much of Luzon including Metro Manila and the Bicol Region.

Koppu/Lando will significantly weaken upon landfall tomorrow but strong, damaging winds, and very heavy rain will be felt further inland. The slow movement of Koppu will contribute to significant rainfall amounts in the region. By Monday, Koppu is forecast to turn northward and weaken as a Tropical Storm. By Tuesday, the system should move out of Luzon and possibly head towards Taiwan.

If you live in the areas under Signal Warnings and are in a storm-prone area, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Now is the time to make preparations as landfall may occur within the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Koppu Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 101415
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Tropical Storm Koppu is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific and the 24th named storm in the basin this year. The system is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 920km west northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Koppu is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows moderate to strong convection although much of this activity is being sheared west of the circulation center. Current conditions are not highly favorable for further development. However, wind shear is forecast to weaken along the projected track which should help Koppu to slowly intensify in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Koppu is forecast to generally move westward in the coming days under the influence of the subtropical ridge in the Pacific. Increasingly favorable conditions along the path of Koppu will promote intensification with most computer models showing it becoming a Typhoon later this week. Koppu is also expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this evening and will be named "Bagyong Lando" by PAGASA.

While the forecast track for Tropical Storm Koppu is still uncertain at this time, the consensus among the computer models along with the current atmospheric patterns in the Pacific shows a generally westward path for the storm. With that said, parts of the Philippines may feel the effects of Koppu later this weekend. Residents in the region should continue to closely monitor the developments of TS Koppu.

Goni (Extra-Tropical) Update #11 [FINAL]

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 082615
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Goni has now fully transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone over the Sea of Japan. The storm center was last located approximately 420km south southeast of Vladivostok, Russia or about 680km northwest of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum winds are between 60 and 80kph. This system is currently moving north northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Goni became fully extra-tropical early this morning over the Sea of Japan. It made landfall in the island of Kyushu yesterday bringing strong winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains of up to 150mm. Parts of the Korean Peninsula also received heavy rains of as much as 300mm. In the Philippines, Goni left 21 people killed in its wake.

The system will now head northwards and will be affecting the Russian Far East, including the city of Vladivostok. Strong winds and widespread rains will be affecting the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Goni. The rest of the Western Pacific is currently free from any tropical cyclones and we don't expect formation over the next few days.

Typhoon Goni Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082515
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Typhoon Goni is now weakening as it moves into the Sea of Japan. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 370km west of Osaka, Japan or about 480km southeast of Seoul, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kh. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 35kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Goni beginning to move into the Sea of Japan. Goni made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning bringing winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains across the region. It has since weakened with the eye no longer visible and convection weakening as well. We are also starting to see hints of extra-tropical transition occurring as the organization is looking more asymmetrical and elongated.

Typhoon Goni will continue weakening and should be downgraded into a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Rains should also end across much of Japan by tonight but parts of South Korea, particularly the eastern portions, will continue to see wet weather last into tomorrow. Goni is forecast to complete extra-tropical transition by Wednesday or Thursday and may threaten the Russian Far East later this week.

We'll have another update tonight.

Typhoon Goni Update #9

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082415
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Typhoon Goni (Formerly Bagyong Ineng) is now moving near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the region. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km northwest of Okinawa Island. Maximum sustained winds are at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Goni remaining fully established as it moves just west of the Ryukyu Islands. Goni rapidly intensified last night and attained Category 4 intensity as it lashed Ishigakijima and the nearby islands. Wind gusts of up to 255kph along with rainfall amounts of up to 280mm were recorded last night. Thankfully, the core of Goni is staying well offshore from Okinawa and nearby islands. However, stormy conditions will still persist across the region through tonight.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image out of the Ryukyu Islands shows the eye of Goni staying just west and is close enough to bring bands of light to moderate rains across the region. Inside these bands, rainfall rates may exceed 20mm per hour. Overall, we're expecting anywhere from 100 to 200mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The good news is that Goni is now accelerating which should limit the duration of stormy weather.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni will continue moving northeastward and should begin to weaken today. It will start encountering increasing wind shear and drier air. Nevertheless, Goni  may still make landfall in the island of Kyushu as a Category 1 Typhoon by Tuesday morning. Aside from Kyushu, parts of Shikoku and Western Honshu may also be impacted by Goni. Eventually, the typhoon is forecast to move just east of the Korean Peninsula by Wednesday and is expected to bring unsettled weather into South Korea.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #8

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 082315
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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) is showing signs of possible re-intensification as it moves closer to the Miyako Islands of Japan. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan or about 250km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 370km north northwest of Basco, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm Warnings for Yaeyema Islands, along with several advisories for high waves, heavy rains, and floods.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has started to clear out after an apparent eyewall replacement cycle happened last night. A new eyewall has successfully taken over and we are starting to see convective activity respond to that as cold cloud tops reappear around the core. Apart from the successful EWRC, Goni is moving into an area of high ocean heat content, and radial outflow has also improved. We expect Goni to re-intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon later this evening and may maintain that intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image from Yaeyema Islands show the well-developed eyewall of Goni with heavy to extreme rains embedded along the bands. Some of those bands have begun to impact Yaeyema Islands bringing rainfall rates of up to 20mm of rain in just an hour. Some of these islands, especially those closer to the core, may receive up to a total of 200mm of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours. Even parts of Okinawa and the nearby islands may see periods of heavy rains tomorrow morning.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving north northeastward over the next few days. We expect slight re-intensification to happen between tonight and into tomorrow as conditions will remain favorable for typhoon strengthening. By tomorrow morning (Monday), Goni is forecast to move just west of Okinawa as a Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are forecast to linger across the region through Tuesday.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon Goni will also continue to affect much of the Philippines, particularly Luzon and Western Visayas. Many areas, including Baguio City, have received as much as 250mm of rain in the past two days. We expect the wet weather to prevail across the said regions through the middle part of the week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #7

Issued (1230 UTC) 0830pm PhT 082015
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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) has intensified earlier today and continues to move closer to Taiwan and the Philippine Islands. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 240km southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 600km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Batanes Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands.

Signal #2 for Rest of Cagayan, Northern Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Ilocos Norte.

Signal #1 for Rest of Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has cleared and become more better-defined as compared to 24 hours. The system has managed to re-intensify to a Category 4 Typhoon with the help of warm waters and good upper-level outflow. As the system gets closer to parts of Luzon, we are seeing bands of light to moderate rains beginning to impact the region. Winds will also start to increase especially in extreme Northern Luzon and the islands north of that.

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving slowly westward over the next 24 hours. However, the system is then forecast to take a sharp turn to the north avoiding a landfall in either Luzon or Taiwan. However, the said regions will still experience stormy conditions that will persist through this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #6

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 081915
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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) has slightly weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 780km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 1,060km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are down slightly to 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Goni has become cloud filled and is no longer as well-defined as yesterday. Goni underwent an eyewall replacement cycle but was never really able to recover. The eyewall is struggling to be completely formed which is one of the big reasons Goni is not re-intensifying currently.

With that said, we still expect Goni to pose a threat across Taiwan and Northern Philippines. It may still intensify as well, as it is expected to move across warmer waters in the Philippine Sea. As it gets nearer, scattered to widespread rains due to the enhanced southwesterly flow will also move across parts of the Philippines.

By Friday, Goni is expected to take a sharp northward turn which should avoid a direct landfall. However, Northern Luzon, Batanes Islands, and Taiwan will still see unsettled weather conditions throughout the weekend. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves will be predominant in the said regions.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Goni Update #5

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 081815
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Typhoon Goni has slightly weakened as it begins to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 1,180km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Goni beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The pinhole eye that was prominent yesterday is now being replaced with a much larger eye. Convective activity remains strong and radial outflow remains good as well. Upon a successful completion of the ERC, we expect Goni to resume intensifying later this week.

Typhoon Goni will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this afternoon and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Ineng' by PAGASA. We're not expecting any direct impacts from the typhoon just yet. However, monsoon rains enhanced by Goni may begin to affect parts of the Philippines, particularly Visayas, by tomorrow.

Goni will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus shows a sharp northward turn near Taiwan this weekend. Heavy rains and strong winds are possible across Taiwan and even Northern Philippines during this time. There is still a chance of a direct landfall, particularly in Taiwan, so we still have to watch out for shifts in the forecasts over the next few days.

We'll have another update tonight.