Monday, August 17, 2015

Typhoon Goni Update #5

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 081815

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Typhoon Goni has slightly weakened as it begins to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 1,180km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Goni beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The pinhole eye that was prominent yesterday is now being replaced with a much larger eye. Convective activity remains strong and radial outflow remains good as well. Upon a successful completion of the ERC, we expect Goni to resume intensifying later this week.

Typhoon Goni will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this afternoon and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Ineng' by PAGASA. We're not expecting any direct impacts from the typhoon just yet. However, monsoon rains enhanced by Goni may begin to affect parts of the Philippines, particularly Visayas, by tomorrow.

Goni will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus shows a sharp northward turn near Taiwan this weekend. Heavy rains and strong winds are possible across Taiwan and even Northern Philippines during this time. There is still a chance of a direct landfall, particularly in Taiwan, so we still have to watch out for shifts in the forecasts over the next few days.

We'll have another update tonight.

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