Tropical Storm Bavi Update #6

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 031715
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Tropical Storm Bavi continues to struggle amidst the unfavorable conditions in the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 920km west northwest of Guam or roughly 1,600km east of the island of Luzon. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Bavi is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity has significantly diminished overnight. Wind shear remains moderate and some dry air is being entrained into the circulation. Poleward outflow is good, however, and is helping to offset the effects of the wind shear.

Tropical Storm Bavi will continue moving generally westward over the next 2 to 3 days. The system is forecast to impact Luzon as a Tropical Depression sometime Thursday. Widespread light to moderate rains should be expected this time, especially across Central and Northern Luzon.

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #5

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 031615
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Tropical Storm Bavi has slightly weakened  has it moves away from the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 460km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Bavi is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity still persists. However, much of the clouds are being displaced west of the circulation due to strong wind shear. These unfavorable conditions are hampering Bavi's development and will likely limit the system's intensity as it nears the Philippine Islands.

Tropical Storm Bavi will continue moving generally westward and should enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow. PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Betty' once the systems enters the PAR.

We're not expecting Bavi to intensify significantly. It may even weaken to a Tropical Depression before it starts affecting the Philippines by Thursday. Based on the current track projections, Bavi may impact Luzon as a weak cyclone and will bring widespread light to moderate rains across the region later in the week.

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #4

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 031515
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Tropical Storm Bavi continues to move across the Pacific and is now affecting the Mariana Islands. The system was last located approximately 200km east southeast of Saipan or about 300km east northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Bavi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Residents are warned for the possibility of strong winds of up to 80kph. Rainfall accumulations of up to 100mm and wave heights of as much as 10feet are possible through the next 12 hours. Please coordinate with your local officials for the latest warnings!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Bavi is still dealing with moderate to strong wind shear. Convection remains strong but is also continuing to be sheared to the western half of the circulation. Despite the weak nature of the storm, Bavi is still forecast to bring unsettled and unsafe weather conditions across Guam and nearby islands.

Radar Image from NWS

 
Latest radar image from the National Weather Service in Guam shows bands of light to moderate rains beginning to impact Guam and parts of the Mariana Islands. We expect anywhere from 50 to as much as 100mm of rainfall accumulations in the next 6 to 12 hours. Rains should subside by tomorrow morning.

For the latest Radar Images and Weather Warnings, please click HERE (NWS Guam)

Tropical Storm Bavi will then continue moving westward across the Pacific and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility. PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Betty' once it enters the PAR sometime around Tuesday. Right now, we don't think Bavi will intensify much as it moves towards the Philippines. However, the possibility of a Tropical Storm landfalling somewhere in Luzon or Visayas is likely late next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT
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Tropical Storm Bavi continues to move quickly across the Western Pacific as it threatens to impact the Mariana Islands in the next few days. The system was last located approximately 960km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Bavi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

A Typhoon Watch has now been issued by the National Weather Service for Guam, Rota, and Tinian for the possibility of strong winds due to Tropical Storm Bavi. Residents are advised to closely monitor the developments of this approaching cyclone.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Bavi maintaining its appearance as yesterday. Moderate wind shear and a little of dry air have been impeding intensification and has kept much of the convective activity on the western periphery of the cyclone. However, we still expect the system to intensify a little bit more as it approaches the Mariana Islands.

Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to continue its generally westward movement in the next few days. Latest forecasts from different agencies put the system towards Guam by Monday morning bringing the threat of strong winds, high waves, and heavy rain. Rest of the Mariana Islands will also be impacted by this storm around that time frame.

Tropical Storm Bavi will then continue moving westward and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday evening. The storm could potentially impact the Philippines later next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #2

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 031315
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Tropical Storm Bavi has slightly intensified overnight as it continues to move across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 380km northeast of Pohnpei (Federated States of Micronesia). Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Bavi is moving westward at 30kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convection associated with Bavi. However, moderate easterly wind shear is displacing much of that convection to the west of the circulation center. Hence, the system is having a hard time ramping up.

Tropical Storm Bavi will continue moving generally west northwestward. Latest computer model projections take the system near Guam by early Monday morning as a strong Tropical Storm. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves should be expected across Guam and nearby islands in the Marianas during that time.

Bavi will then continue moving westward under the influence of the subtropical ridge and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday or Wednesday.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 031215
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The third named Tropical Cyclone of the Western Pacific has formed this morning. Tropical Storm Bavi was last located approximately 900km east northeast from the island of Pohnpei (Federate States of Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Bavi is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Bavi in its initial formative stages. Low-level circulation center is still partially exposed although convective activity has increased, especially on the western periphery. The system is also displaying good outflow. Tropical Storm Bavi is in an area of weak to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. We expect the system to steadily intensify in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward in the next few days. Computer models are in good agreement with the track as well as the intensity for Bavi. While we don't expect Bavi to intensify into a Typhoon at this time, there is still a possibility for it to reach that intensity. Based on current projections, Bavi might impact Guam and parts of the Mariana Islands early next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.