Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Tropical Storm Bavi Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 031215

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The third named Tropical Cyclone of the Western Pacific has formed this morning. Tropical Storm Bavi was last located approximately 900km east northeast from the island of Pohnpei (Federate States of Micronesia. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Bavi is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

VIS Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Bavi in its initial formative stages. Low-level circulation center is still partially exposed although convective activity has increased, especially on the western periphery. The system is also displaying good outflow. Tropical Storm Bavi is in an area of weak to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. We expect the system to steadily intensify in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Bavi is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward in the next few days. Computer models are in good agreement with the track as well as the intensity for Bavi. While we don't expect Bavi to intensify into a Typhoon at this time, there is still a possibility for it to reach that intensity. Based on current projections, Bavi might impact Guam and parts of the Mariana Islands early next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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