Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 100714
________________________________
Phanfone has left Japan last night and is now an extra-tropical cyclone over the North Pacific. Phanfone plowed through mainland Japan as a typhoon with winds of up to 180kph at one point. Unfortunately, Phanfone caused numerous the deaths of 3 people in the country. One of them includes an airman from the US Navy in Okinawa. Two other Americans are still missing as they were swept off by high waves.
Rains and strong winds also lashed Honshu in the afternoon hours of Sunday and into Monday. Inclement weather also wreaked havoc in the Japanese Grand Prix that was held in Suzuka Circuit. A Formula One driver (Jules Bianchi) suffered a severe head injury after a horrible crash late in the race forcing officials to end the F1 Grand Prix early.
Hundreds of flights were also cancelled yesterday in Tokyo Airports during the height of the typhoon but has since returned to normal. Winds of up to 100kph lashed Tokyo and rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm fell across the region.
Right now, weather across Japan has greatly improved and Phanfone is no longer a threat to land. However, we are watching Typhoon Vongfong as it moves across the Philippine Sea. Computer models are showing this system eventually affecting Japan later this week.
For more information on Phanfone's impacts in Japan, please visit our affiliate Western Pacific Weather.
This is the final update for Phanfone. We'll have a complete update for Vongfong later today.
Showing posts with label 18W (Phanfone). Show all posts
Showing posts with label 18W (Phanfone). Show all posts
Monday, October 6, 2014
Sunday, October 5, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone Update #8 (LANDFALL)
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 100614
_____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone is now making landfall in Shizuoka Prefecture on the island of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 140km east of Nagoya or about 150km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Phanfone is currently moving northeastward at 40kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Phanfone slowly unraveling as it races to the northeast. The central convection remains intact but the inner core is slowly decaying. Phanfone is beginning to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone and will continue to weaken as it undergoes that process. Nevertheless, the storm remains a dangerous one and will continue to bring inclement weather across Southeastern Honshu over the next 12 hours.
Radar Image from JMA
Latest radar image from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows widespread rains moving across Chubu and Kanto Regions. The Tokyo Metropolitan Area is also being affecting by heavy rains capable of bringing up to 30mm of rain per hour. We're expecting as much as 200mm of rain to fall through the afternoon hours. Rains will taper off from west to east and should clear the entire region over the next 12 hours.
For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)
Typhoon Phanfone will continue moving quickly to the northeast. It will pass just north of Tokyo in the next 3 hours and will bring strong winds in the city. It is forecast to eventually exit Honshu later this afternoon and stormy conditions should slowly end tonight. Phanfone will then race to the northeast across the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
We'll have another update later today. We'll have an update on Typhoon Vongfong (which is now leaving the Mariana Islands) later this morning.
_____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone is now making landfall in Shizuoka Prefecture on the island of Honshu. The system was last located approximately 140km east of Nagoya or about 150km southwest of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Phanfone is currently moving northeastward at 40kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Phanfone slowly unraveling as it races to the northeast. The central convection remains intact but the inner core is slowly decaying. Phanfone is beginning to transition into an extra-tropical cyclone and will continue to weaken as it undergoes that process. Nevertheless, the storm remains a dangerous one and will continue to bring inclement weather across Southeastern Honshu over the next 12 hours.
Radar Image from JMA
Latest radar image from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows widespread rains moving across Chubu and Kanto Regions. The Tokyo Metropolitan Area is also being affecting by heavy rains capable of bringing up to 30mm of rain per hour. We're expecting as much as 200mm of rain to fall through the afternoon hours. Rains will taper off from west to east and should clear the entire region over the next 12 hours.
For the latest radar images and warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)
Typhoon Phanfone will continue moving quickly to the northeast. It will pass just north of Tokyo in the next 3 hours and will bring strong winds in the city. It is forecast to eventually exit Honshu later this afternoon and stormy conditions should slowly end tonight. Phanfone will then race to the northeast across the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by tomorrow.
We'll have another update later today. We'll have an update on Typhoon Vongfong (which is now leaving the Mariana Islands) later this morning.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone Update #7
Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 100414
_________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened as it nears the Southern coast of Japan. The system was last located approximately 190km east northeast of the island of Amami or about 380km northeast of the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows the large eye of Phanfone remains well-organized despite conditions becoming less favorable for tropical cyclones. Convection has slightly weakened as well. Pretty soon, dry air and increasing vertical wind shear will induce more weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Radar Image from JMA
Latest radar image in the region shows the western eyewall of Phanfone moving near the island of Amami in the northern part of the Ryukyu Islands. Winds of up to 120kph have also been recorded in the areas. Rains and strong winds are also beginning to move northwards and are starting to be felt across the island of Kyushu. We're expecting 100 to 200mm of rain to fall to parts of Kyushu and Shikoku today and into tomorrow.
For the latest update and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)
Typhoon Phanfone is currently rounding the western periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. It should start turning to the northeast later today. However, the eastern coast of Kyushu will be experiencing stormy conditions that will last through the evening hours. Parts of Shikoku and Honshu will also start experiencing effects from Typhoon Phanfone later this afternoon. The storm can still disrupt the Japanese Grand Prix being held at 3pm local time today (Sunday).
Phanfone is forecast to make landfall somewhere in Chubu or Kinki Region by early Monday morning as a weakening Category 2 typhoon. It will be moving quickly to the northeast spreading rain and strong winds across Honshu. The storm will also be moving very close to the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon and will bring dangerous conditions in the area as well.
We'll have another update later today.
_________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened as it nears the Southern coast of Japan. The system was last located approximately 190km east northeast of the island of Amami or about 380km northeast of the island of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows the large eye of Phanfone remains well-organized despite conditions becoming less favorable for tropical cyclones. Convection has slightly weakened as well. Pretty soon, dry air and increasing vertical wind shear will induce more weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Radar Image from JMA
Latest radar image in the region shows the western eyewall of Phanfone moving near the island of Amami in the northern part of the Ryukyu Islands. Winds of up to 120kph have also been recorded in the areas. Rains and strong winds are also beginning to move northwards and are starting to be felt across the island of Kyushu. We're expecting 100 to 200mm of rain to fall to parts of Kyushu and Shikoku today and into tomorrow.
For the latest update and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)
Typhoon Phanfone is currently rounding the western periphery of the Subtropical Ridge. It should start turning to the northeast later today. However, the eastern coast of Kyushu will be experiencing stormy conditions that will last through the evening hours. Parts of Shikoku and Honshu will also start experiencing effects from Typhoon Phanfone later this afternoon. The storm can still disrupt the Japanese Grand Prix being held at 3pm local time today (Sunday).
Phanfone is forecast to make landfall somewhere in Chubu or Kinki Region by early Monday morning as a weakening Category 2 typhoon. It will be moving quickly to the northeast spreading rain and strong winds across Honshu. The storm will also be moving very close to the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon and will bring dangerous conditions in the area as well.
We'll have another update later today.
Friday, October 3, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone (Neneng) Update #6
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 100414
________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone (Bagyong Neneng) has regained intensity after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 520km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 270kph, making Phanfone a Category 4 typhoon in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The system is currently moving north northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye has become more organized and is also much larger this morning. The center continues to be surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow further intensification and should allow Phanfone to reach its peak intensity later this afternoon.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
While Okinawa will be spared of the storm, the tiny islands of Daito-Jima will bear the brunt. Winds of up to 100kph are already being reported in the area and will continue through the afternoon hours. By tonight, parts of Kyushu and Shikoku will start feeling the effects of Phanfone. The system will also slow down as it recurves to the northeast by tomorrow.
Typhoon Phanfone is forecast to make landfall in Kinki Region and will pass south of Nagoya by Sunday afternoon. The system may bring heavy rains towards Suzuka Circuit where the Formula 1 (F1) Japanese Grand Prix is being held. Phanfone will bring damaging winds, and heavy rains of up to 300mm in the region. It will move eastward quickly towards Chubu and Kanto Regions, passing near the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon. By then, Phanfone will have weakened to a Category 1 Typhoon but will still bring dangerous conditions in the area.
If you live in the areas mentioned, please prepare now. As always, heed the warnings of your local officials! Stay safe!
We'll have another update for Phanfone and Tropical Storm Vongfong later this afternoon.
________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone (Bagyong Neneng) has regained intensity after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 520km east southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 270kph, making Phanfone a Category 4 typhoon in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. The system is currently moving north northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye has become more organized and is also much larger this morning. The center continues to be surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Weak wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow further intensification and should allow Phanfone to reach its peak intensity later this afternoon.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
While Okinawa will be spared of the storm, the tiny islands of Daito-Jima will bear the brunt. Winds of up to 100kph are already being reported in the area and will continue through the afternoon hours. By tonight, parts of Kyushu and Shikoku will start feeling the effects of Phanfone. The system will also slow down as it recurves to the northeast by tomorrow.
Typhoon Phanfone is forecast to make landfall in Kinki Region and will pass south of Nagoya by Sunday afternoon. The system may bring heavy rains towards Suzuka Circuit where the Formula 1 (F1) Japanese Grand Prix is being held. Phanfone will bring damaging winds, and heavy rains of up to 300mm in the region. It will move eastward quickly towards Chubu and Kanto Regions, passing near the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday afternoon. By then, Phanfone will have weakened to a Category 1 Typhoon but will still bring dangerous conditions in the area.
If you live in the areas mentioned, please prepare now. As always, heed the warnings of your local officials! Stay safe!
We'll have another update for Phanfone and Tropical Storm Vongfong later this afternoon.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Tropical Depression 19W Update #1 (w/ VIDEO)
Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 100314
________________________________
Watch our latest Video Update for in-depth analysis and forecast for both Typhoon Phanfone and Tropical Depression 19W.
A new Tropical Cyclone has formed near the Caroline Islands this morning. Tropical Depression 19W was last located approximately 170km northeast of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 19W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
VIS Image from NRLMRY
Latest visible satellite imagery showing TD 19W in its early stages of development. However, strong convective activity and tight banding are already occurring as the system takes advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. Continued intensification is likely over the next few days.
Tropical Depression 19W will continue moving generally west northwestward and could become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. It could even reach typhoon strength by Sunday and Monday. TD 19W could also move near Saipan and the Mariana Islands around that time frame with strong winds and heavy rains affecting the region including Guam.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
________________________________
Watch our latest Video Update for in-depth analysis and forecast for both Typhoon Phanfone and Tropical Depression 19W.
A new Tropical Cyclone has formed near the Caroline Islands this morning. Tropical Depression 19W was last located approximately 170km northeast of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 19W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
VIS Image from NRLMRY
Latest visible satellite imagery showing TD 19W in its early stages of development. However, strong convective activity and tight banding are already occurring as the system takes advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. Continued intensification is likely over the next few days.
Tropical Depression 19W will continue moving generally west northwestward and could become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. It could even reach typhoon strength by Sunday and Monday. TD 19W could also move near Saipan and the Mariana Islands around that time frame with strong winds and heavy rains affecting the region including Guam.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
Typhoon Phanfone Update #5
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 100314
____________________________
Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened this morning as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 930km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northwestward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a new eye beginning to take over as the eyewall replacement cycle nears its completion.Due to the said EWRC, Phanfone had weakened slightly. However, we expect the system to regain strength and intensify once again over the next 24 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Phanfone will continue moving northwestward today and will pass well east of Okinawa tonight. The Daito Islands, however, will see strong typhoon-force winds and heavy rains that will last through tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, Kyushu and Shikoku will start to feel the effects of Phanfone. By this time, we expect the system to have reached its peak and should start to weaken after.
While there are still some uncertainties with the exact timing of the turn, we are becoming more confident that Phanfone will make landfall somewhere in Honshu. The likeliest areas will be the Kinki or the Chubu Regions. We're expecting landfall to occur sometime around early Monday morning. However, heavy rains will already be affecting Honshu before that. In fact, the possibility of stormy conditions might force the cancellation of the Japanese Grand Prix to be held on Sunday.
Phanfone will rapidly weaken as it track eastward by Monday. However, it may still bring typhoon-force winds across the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday morning and afternoon. Please heed the warnings of your local officials.
We'll have another update later today.
____________________________
Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened this morning as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 930km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northwestward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a new eye beginning to take over as the eyewall replacement cycle nears its completion.Due to the said EWRC, Phanfone had weakened slightly. However, we expect the system to regain strength and intensify once again over the next 24 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Phanfone will continue moving northwestward today and will pass well east of Okinawa tonight. The Daito Islands, however, will see strong typhoon-force winds and heavy rains that will last through tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, Kyushu and Shikoku will start to feel the effects of Phanfone. By this time, we expect the system to have reached its peak and should start to weaken after.
While there are still some uncertainties with the exact timing of the turn, we are becoming more confident that Phanfone will make landfall somewhere in Honshu. The likeliest areas will be the Kinki or the Chubu Regions. We're expecting landfall to occur sometime around early Monday morning. However, heavy rains will already be affecting Honshu before that. In fact, the possibility of stormy conditions might force the cancellation of the Japanese Grand Prix to be held on Sunday.
Phanfone will rapidly weaken as it track eastward by Monday. However, it may still bring typhoon-force winds across the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday morning and afternoon. Please heed the warnings of your local officials.
We'll have another update later today.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone Update #4
Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 100214
_____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone has rapidly intensified this morning and is now up to Category 3 intensity. The system was last located approximately 980km northwest of Guam or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Phanfone is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a pinhole eye has developed in the center of Phanfone. This small eye is surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. Furthermore, the outflow remains very excellent and is helping the system effectively ventilate all that heat. The warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and the weak wind shear in the region should promote continued intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Computer models are finally starting to agree on a track for Typhoon Phanfone. We have made little change with our forecast track from our yesterday. Our current track is closely positioned to that of the model consensus as well as that of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Based on our track above, Phanfone should continue moving generally northwestward over the next 24 hours. It should, then, start turning more to the north by Saturday as a mid-latitude trough weakens the sub-tropical ridge over the North Pacific. Our track is expecting Phanfone to stay well east of Okinawa by the weekend. However, the Japanese Islands may still see some light rains, gusty winds, and definitely high waves. The larger impact will be felt across Shikoku and Honshu as we move into Saturday evening and into Sunday. The system could make landfall in Honshu, south of Nagoya, by early Monday morning as a strong and dangerous typhoon and even moving close to Tokyo around that time.
We urge everyone from Okinawa and especially into Mainland Japan to continue closely following the progress of this typhoon. We'll have another update tomorrow.
_____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Typhoon Phanfone has rapidly intensified this morning and is now up to Category 3 intensity. The system was last located approximately 980km northwest of Guam or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Phanfone is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a pinhole eye has developed in the center of Phanfone. This small eye is surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. Furthermore, the outflow remains very excellent and is helping the system effectively ventilate all that heat. The warm sea surface temperatures across the Philippine Sea and the weak wind shear in the region should promote continued intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Computer models are finally starting to agree on a track for Typhoon Phanfone. We have made little change with our forecast track from our yesterday. Our current track is closely positioned to that of the model consensus as well as that of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Based on our track above, Phanfone should continue moving generally northwestward over the next 24 hours. It should, then, start turning more to the north by Saturday as a mid-latitude trough weakens the sub-tropical ridge over the North Pacific. Our track is expecting Phanfone to stay well east of Okinawa by the weekend. However, the Japanese Islands may still see some light rains, gusty winds, and definitely high waves. The larger impact will be felt across Shikoku and Honshu as we move into Saturday evening and into Sunday. The system could make landfall in Honshu, south of Nagoya, by early Monday morning as a strong and dangerous typhoon and even moving close to Tokyo around that time.
We urge everyone from Okinawa and especially into Mainland Japan to continue closely following the progress of this typhoon. We'll have another update tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Typhoon Phanfone Update #3
Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 100114
____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Phanfone continues to quickly intensify today and has been upgraded to a Typhoon by the JTWC. The system was last located approximately 380km northwest of Saipan or about 480km north northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a rapidly developing cyclone with a small but organized central dense overcast. Strong convective bands continue to wrap around the center. Furthermore, outflow remains excellent especially along the western and southern portions of the circulation. Environmental conditions across the Philippine Sea are highly favorable and should help Phanfone continue its quick intensification.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
There have been some important changes with the forecasts from the weather computer models that we use. Most of them have shifted west and are now positioned much closer to Japan. In response, we have shifted our forecast track slightly to the west and closely resembles the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast track.
We are expecting Phanfone to continue moving generally northwestward over the next few days, intensifying along the way. It may reach a peak intensity of up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. Uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track and models are virtually split on this. One camp shows a westward track towards Okinawa, while the other camp shows a recurve towards Mainland Japan. Whatever the case may be, we urge everyone from Taiwan to Okinawa all the way to Mainland Japan to closely pay attention to the progress and development of Typhoon Phanfone.
We'll have anther update tomorrow.
____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Phanfone continues to quickly intensify today and has been upgraded to a Typhoon by the JTWC. The system was last located approximately 380km northwest of Saipan or about 480km north northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a rapidly developing cyclone with a small but organized central dense overcast. Strong convective bands continue to wrap around the center. Furthermore, outflow remains excellent especially along the western and southern portions of the circulation. Environmental conditions across the Philippine Sea are highly favorable and should help Phanfone continue its quick intensification.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
There have been some important changes with the forecasts from the weather computer models that we use. Most of them have shifted west and are now positioned much closer to Japan. In response, we have shifted our forecast track slightly to the west and closely resembles the Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast track.
We are expecting Phanfone to continue moving generally northwestward over the next few days, intensifying along the way. It may reach a peak intensity of up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. Uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track and models are virtually split on this. One camp shows a westward track towards Okinawa, while the other camp shows a recurve towards Mainland Japan. Whatever the case may be, we urge everyone from Taiwan to Okinawa all the way to Mainland Japan to closely pay attention to the progress and development of Typhoon Phanfone.
We'll have anther update tomorrow.
Monday, September 29, 2014
Tropical Storm Phanfone Update #2
Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 093014
____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Tropical Depression 18W has intensified this morning and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Phanfone. The storm's center was last located approximately 280km east of Saipan or about 440km northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Phanfone is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saipan, Tinian, Pagan, and Alamagan. Meanwhile, a Typhoon Watch is in effect for Pagan and Alamagan. Please follow the warnings from your local officials.
For the latest weather forecasts and warnings from NWS, please click HERE
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows central convection continuing to intensify and consolidate around the circulation center. Outflow remains excellent and wind shear remains light as well. Some rain bands are already pushing westward affecting the northern islands and even Saipan. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tropical Storm Phanfone will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. It will pass north of Saipan tonight bringing stormy conditions across the region. Even Guam may see some strong winds and periods of moderate to heavy rains. Seas will be rough across the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Weather conditions across the Mariana Islands should improve by tomorrow evening as the system moves towards the Philippine Sea. A period of rapid intensification is possible and we are actually expecting Phanfone to reach up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. By this time, the system should start to recurve in response to a mid-latitude trough moving across East Asia. Nevertheless, Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands, and especially Mainland Japan itself, should continue to monitor the progress of this Tropical Storm.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
____________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
Tropical Depression 18W has intensified this morning and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Phanfone. The storm's center was last located approximately 280km east of Saipan or about 440km northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Phanfone is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saipan, Tinian, Pagan, and Alamagan. Meanwhile, a Typhoon Watch is in effect for Pagan and Alamagan. Please follow the warnings from your local officials.
For the latest weather forecasts and warnings from NWS, please click HERE
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows central convection continuing to intensify and consolidate around the circulation center. Outflow remains excellent and wind shear remains light as well. Some rain bands are already pushing westward affecting the northern islands and even Saipan. Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tropical Storm Phanfone will continue moving west northwestward over the next few days. It will pass north of Saipan tonight bringing stormy conditions across the region. Even Guam may see some strong winds and periods of moderate to heavy rains. Seas will be rough across the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.
Weather conditions across the Mariana Islands should improve by tomorrow evening as the system moves towards the Philippine Sea. A period of rapid intensification is possible and we are actually expecting Phanfone to reach up to Category 4 strength by the weekend. By this time, the system should start to recurve in response to a mid-latitude trough moving across East Asia. Nevertheless, Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands, and especially Mainland Japan itself, should continue to monitor the progress of this Tropical Storm.
We'll have another update tomorrow.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
Tropical Depression 18W Update #1
Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 092914
_________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today and is currently aiming for the Mariana Islands. Tropical Depression 18W was last located approximately 700km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 18W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Pagan and Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian (San Jose).
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a quickly developing cyclone with good convection wrapping around the low-level center. Radial outflow is also very good as conditions in the region are very favorable for development. Warm sea-surface temperatures, weak wind shear, and good upper-level airflow should promote continued intensification over the next few days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Our preliminary forecast track for the next four days is closely aligned with the consensus among the computer models. However, we have to note that there is a divergence regarding when the system will recurve to the north. This is very important as it will dictate which areas may be impacted down the road.
For now, we are expecting TD 18W to continue moving west northwestward and should start to affect Mariana Islands by tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rains will impact the islands but the worst conditions should stay north of Guam while Saipan may be a different story. TD 18W should also be close to becoming a typhoon at this point and will only continue to intensify from here on out.
As we've mentioned there are still differences regarding the eventual track. Anyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to Mainland Japan should pay close attention to the developments of this system. We'll have another update tomorrow.
_________________________________
Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!
A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today and is currently aiming for the Mariana Islands. Tropical Depression 18W was last located approximately 700km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 18W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Pagan and Alamagan. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Saipan and Tinian (San Jose).
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a quickly developing cyclone with good convection wrapping around the low-level center. Radial outflow is also very good as conditions in the region are very favorable for development. Warm sea-surface temperatures, weak wind shear, and good upper-level airflow should promote continued intensification over the next few days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Our preliminary forecast track for the next four days is closely aligned with the consensus among the computer models. However, we have to note that there is a divergence regarding when the system will recurve to the north. This is very important as it will dictate which areas may be impacted down the road.
For now, we are expecting TD 18W to continue moving west northwestward and should start to affect Mariana Islands by tomorrow. Strong winds and heavy rains will impact the islands but the worst conditions should stay north of Guam while Saipan may be a different story. TD 18W should also be close to becoming a typhoon at this point and will only continue to intensify from here on out.
As we've mentioned there are still differences regarding the eventual track. Anyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to Mainland Japan should pay close attention to the developments of this system. We'll have another update tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)