Thursday, October 2, 2014

Typhoon Phanfone Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 100314

Typhoon Phanfone has slightly weakened this morning as it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. The system was last located approximately 930km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Phanfone is moving northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a new eye beginning to take over as the eyewall replacement cycle nears its completion.Due to the said EWRC, Phanfone had weakened slightly. However, we expect the system to regain strength and intensify once again over the next 24 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Phanfone will continue moving northwestward today and will pass well east of Okinawa tonight. The Daito Islands, however, will see strong typhoon-force winds and heavy rains that will last through tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, Kyushu and Shikoku will start to feel the effects of Phanfone. By this time, we expect the system to have reached its peak and should start to weaken after.

While there are still some uncertainties with the exact timing of the turn, we are becoming more confident that Phanfone will make landfall somewhere in Honshu. The likeliest areas will be the Kinki or the Chubu Regions. We're expecting landfall to occur sometime around early Monday morning. However, heavy rains will already be affecting Honshu before that. In fact, the possibility of stormy conditions might force the cancellation of the Japanese Grand Prix to be held on Sunday.

Phanfone will rapidly weaken as it track eastward by Monday. However, it may still bring typhoon-force winds across the Tokyo Metro Area by Monday morning and afternoon. Please heed the warnings of your local officials.

We'll have another update later today.

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