Tropical Depression Matmo Update #11 (FINAL)

Issued (13 UTC) 9am PhT 072414
____________________________

Tropical Depression Matmo is now rapidly weakening as it moves across Eastern China. The system was last located approximately 230km northwest of Fuzhou or about 480km southwest of Shanghai. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Matmo is moving north northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Matmo decaying rapidly now as it continues to interact with land. The circulation is still intact but convective banding is suffering and is no longer well-developed. Despite this, however, some areas are still reporting gusty winds of up to 100kph. We should see continued weakening through the day, with total dissipation expected by tomorrow.

Radar Image from CWB

Latest satellite image shows widespread rains affecting the provinces of Fujian, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Anhui. Many areas are already reporting well over 200mm of rainfall and we could still up to 100mm fall through the next 24 hours. Flooding and landslides are still possible in this region as we head into the latter part of this week.

For the latest Radar Images and Weather Warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website).

Meanwhile, a plane crash in Taiwan is attributed to foul weather caused by Matmo as it moved across yesterday. So far, authorities estimate at least 40 people are killed because of the crash.

Tropical Depression Matmo will continue weakening today and should completely dissipate my tomorrow. Rains will continue across Eastern China and could also affect Shanghai by tomorrow. This will be the final update for Matmo.

Tropical Storm Matmo Update #10 (LANDFALL)

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 072314
_________________________________

Matmo (Formerly Bagyong Henry) has made its second and final landfall in Fujian Province in Southeastern China. It has also weakened to a Tropical Storm as it interacts with land. The system was last located approximately 40km south of Fuzhou or about 230km west northwest of Taipei. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Matmo is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Matmo moving inland into Southeastern China. The storm is still looking symmetrical with convective bands surrounding the circulation center. Strong winds continue to be present near the center, as well. Some coastal areas along Fujian have reported seeing gusts of up to 150kph.

Winds in Taiwan are now subsiding but they will still experience light to moderate rains, especially along the western coast. Many areas here, especially Hualien County received 300 to 500mm of rain over the past 48 hours which caused landslides and flooding in many areas.

Radar Image from CMA

 
As Matmo move ashore in Fujian, widespread light to moderate rains are now affecting the area including nearby provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangxi. We expect 200 to as much as 500mm of rainfall in many places in Eastern China over the next few days and this heavy rainfall event can cause flooding and landslides, as we've seen in Taiwan.

For the latest warnings and forecasts from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)

Tropical Storm Matmo will continue moving inland tonight bringing rains and strong winds in the region. It should also rapidly weaken as it interacts with land. Rains will linger across Eastern China for the next 2 to 3 days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #9

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 072314
____________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!

Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) is now moving into Taiwan Strait after making landfall in Taiwan last night. The system was last located approximately 150km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan or about 200km southeast of Fuzhou, China. Maximum sustained winds have weakened to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Matmo is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the core of Matmo now moving into Taiwan Strait. Matmo made landfall in Taitung County just before midnight last night as a Category 2 Typhoon. It crossed the mountainous regions of Taiwan which significantly disrupted the circulation, leading to the weakening this morning.

Radar Image from CWB

Latest radar image out of Taiwan shows that there are still bands of moderate to heavy rains affecting the region. Up to 500mm of rainfall has already been recorded in some areas, especially in Hualien County. Numerous landslides and flooding events have already been reported and we will likely see more reports later today. We're expecting anywhere from 100 to as much as 300mm to fall throughout the next 12 hours.

For the latest radar images and warnings from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)

Typhoon Matmo is forecast to make landfall in Fujian Province later this afternoon and will move near the city of Fuzhou. Typhoon-force winds of up to 150kph are still possible along with the threat of storm surge along the coast. Heavy rains will also be affecting the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi later today. Eastern China might see up to 300mm of rain over the next 24 hours.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #8 (w/ Video)

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 072214
____________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!  

Please watch our Video Update below for the latest in-depth analysis and forecast for Typhoon Matmo.

 
Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) has slightly intensified as it moves ever closer to Taiwan. The system was last located approximately 230km north northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 300km south southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph making Matmo a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Matmo is currently moving north northwestward at 25kph.

PAGASA has issued Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands and Signal #1 for Calayan and Babuyan Islands. Meanwhile, Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan has issued a Sea and Land Typhoon Warning for the entire region. Extremely Heavy Rain Advisories have also been issued across the counties in Taiwan. Please heed the warnings of your local officials and stay safe!

Radar Image from CWB

 
Latest radar image from Central Weather Bureau shows the eye of Matmo moving closer to Taiwan. Bands of light to moderate rains are already affecting Taitung and Hualien Counties. Heavy rains will continue moving from the east and will encompass the entire island by tonight. We expect anywhere from 300 to 500mm of rain to fall in the next 24 hours. Some locations may see up to 800mm which will bring widespread landslides and flooding across the low-lying areas.

For the latest radar images and warnings from Taiwan, please click HERE (CWB Website)

Typhoon Matmo will exit into the Taiwan Strait by tomorrow morning (Wednesday) and will make landfall in Fujian Province in China by tomorrow afternoon. It will rapidly weaken as it moves further inland into China but it will still bring widespread rains in the region.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #7 (w/ Video)

Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 072114
____________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates! 

Watch our latest Video Update below for the complete analysis and forecasts for Typhoon Matmo.

 
Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to track closer towards Taiwan. The storm center was last located approximately 460km east of Aparri, Cagayan or about 850km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Matmo is moving north northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #1 for Cagayan, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continues to show improvements with convection wrapping around the center now. The central dense overcast is also more symmetrical this afternoon. The wind shear continues to weaken and this is allowing Matmo to finally improve its structure. We'll likely see intensification occur tonight and continue into tomorrow morning.

Cagayan Province and the islands north of Luzon will be dealing with some scattered light to moderate rains and gusty winds. The center will move near the Batanes Islands tomorrow morning and we expect stormy conditions to occur there.

Typhoon Matmo is forecast to make landfall in Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon and then move near Taipei by the evening. Strong winds of up to 160kph are possible along with heavy rains of up to 500mm. Flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous regions, are possible.

Matmo is, then, forecast to move into Eastern China bringing the same threat there later this week.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #6

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 072114
_________________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates! 

Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) maintains strength as it moves east of Luzon. The system was last located approximately 520km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or about 1,020km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are still at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Matmo is moving north northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image suggest that Typhoon Matmo may be starting to show signs of intensification again. The convective activity remains but it also appears that the eyewall may be starting to take shape. We could see an eye form later this afternoon. The wind shear has weakened slightly and the warm waters of the Philippine Sea should help fuel intensification.

Scattered light to moderate rains will continue to impact Luzon today. The rains will be heavier across Northern Luzon, particularly in the provinces of Cagayan and Isabela. For the latest radar images from the Philippines, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Typhoon Matmo will continue moving north northwestward. We should see intensification continue over the next 24 to 36 hours. Current forecasts shows Matmo moving towards Taiwan by Tuesday morning as a possible Category3 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and the storm surge will be threatening Taiwan as the system moves ashore.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Update #5

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 072114
___________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates! 

Typhoon Matmo (Bagyong Henry) has maintained its strength as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The center of the storm was last located approximately 500km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 760km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Matmo is currently moving north northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands, Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows cold convective cloud tops covering much of Matmo's circulation. However, as intense as the satellite image may seem, further analysis suggest that this cyclone is still struggling to develop its core. The eyewall is not even formed yet and the low-level center is badly sheared from the main convection. This is suggesting that Matmo is still battling strong wind shear and is not intensifying as fast as we were forecasting it to be.

The satellite image above also shows clouds moving into Luzon and Visayas. We're expecting light to moderate rains to impact the area, especially along the eastern coast. Bicol, Quezon, Catanduanes, Samar, and nearby provinces should expect 50 to 100mm of rain today. Even Metro Manila will see some scattered rains.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Typhoon Matmo will continue moving north northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next 2 days. We are still expecting the vertical wind shear to weaken which should allow Matmo to intensify even more. Right now, we are forecasting the system to make landfall in Taiwan as a strong Category 3 Typhoon by Wednesday morning--in line with the forecasts of other agencies in the region.

Despite not making landfall in the Philippines, Luzon and Visayas will continue to see light to moderate rains over the next few days which may cause flooding and landslides in prone areas. The northeastern part of Luzon and the islands of Batanes may also see some strong winds and heavy rains as the center of Matmo moves near the area by Wednesday.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry) Update #4 (w/ Video)

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 071914
________________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!

Watch our latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecast for Tropical Storm/Typhoon Matmo.

Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to intensify and is now on the cusp of becoming a Typhoon (in fact JMA already upgraded the system to a Typhoon this afternoon). The system as last located approximately 620km northwest of Palau or about 670km east of Tacloban. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Matmo is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA hasn't issued any Public Storm Warning Signals for the Philippines yet.

IR image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows central convection remains strong with an increasingly symmetrical CDO. An eyewall is also trying to form at the center of Matmo. However, moderate northeasterly wind shear is hampering development and limiting intensification. We expect the environment to become more conducive in the next few days.

Tropical Storm Matmo should become a Typhoon by tomorrow morning and will continue to head northwestward across the Philippine Sea. There is still some uncertainty with the forecast track as some agencies are showing a landfall in Northern Luzon while some in Taiwan. Right now, we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan to the Ryukyu Islands in Japan to closely monitor the progress of Matmo.

Another aspect with this cyclone is the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). We expect rains to spread across Luzon and Visayas over the next few days as Tropical Storm Matmo pulls to the northwest.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 071914
_________________________________

 Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!

Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to intensify steadily as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 580km northwest of Palau or about 620km east of Tacloban City. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. Tropical Storm Matmo is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to develop with strong convective activity and formative banding around the center. There is still some northeasterly shear that is limiting the rate of intensification. However, further analysis suggests that an eyewall may already be forming and that system could intensify at a faster pace over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been a significant change with our forecast track. Since Matmo intensified quickly last night, it moved farther to the west than we initially anticipated. This has led to our forecast track being adjusted to the left and is now taking Matmo (Henry) closer to the Philippine coast. However at this point, we still don't think the storm will make landfall in the country.

Nevertheless, light to moderate rains may continue impacting Visayas and parts of Luzon and Mindanao over the next few days. Matmo will also intensify throughout the forecast and could undergo a period of rapid intensification in the next 2 to 3 days. Our long-range forecast is currently showing a track towards Taiwan by middle part of next week.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Super Typhoon Rammasun and TS Matmo (Henry) Video Update

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 071814
________________________________

Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!   

Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon this afternoon and has made landfall in Hainan Island. China Meteorological Administration confirmed landfall in Wenchang with recorded winds of 180kph to 220kph! The eye of Rammasun is now moving into Leizhou Peninsula but is affecting the whole region especially Hainan Island and coastal areas of Guangdong Province.

Watch our latest Video Update below for more info.

Radar from CMA

 Latest radar image from Hainan shows the eye remains perfectly symmetrical with very heavy rains in the eyewall. Winds of 160kph continue to be reported in Haikou and up to 200kph in nearby areas. These winds are catastrophic and will do significant damages to many buildings and infrastructure. Even Leizhou Peninsula is experiencing dangerous conditions with strong winds, heavy rains, and significant storm surge especially in the city of Zhanjiang.

For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE

Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue battering Hainan and Leizhou over the next 12 hours as it moves northwestward into Gulf of Tonkin. Rammasun is forecast to make landfall in Guangxi Province tomorrow afternoon and then move towards Northern Vietnam. The threat for strong winds and heavy rains will shift westward overtime.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to slowly develop as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea. This system will continue moving northwestward over the next few days. Some agencies are expecting Matmo to become a typhoon by early next week. So far, the consensus is taking Matmo well east of the Philippines but it can still impact the country as it enhances the Southwest Monsoon.

We'll have more updates on these two Tropical Cyclones tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry) Update #1

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 071814
________________________________

Please LIKE our Facebook Page for the latest updates!  

A new Tropical Cyclone has developed over the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) was last located approximately 350km north of Palau or about 1,200km east of Cebu City. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Matmo is moving north northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a cyclone in early stages of development. Central convection remains strong with banding becoming more organized this morning. There is some northeasterly wind shear that will limit intensification for a while but the the rest of the circulation looks to be improving.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast is based on the latest computer model guidance and the latest flow in the atmosphere; we have low confidence with the forecast mainly due to the system forming less than 24 hours ago. Our current track will take Matmo generally northwestward across the Philippine Sea over the next 3 to 4 days.

It will also intensify steadily and could become a Typhoon this weekend. Right now, it's too early to tell where this system will make landfall. However, residents from Northern Luzon all the way to the Southern Japanese Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this developing Tropical Storm.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.