Friday, July 18, 2014

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry) Update #3

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 071914

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Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to intensify steadily as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 580km northwest of Palau or about 620km east of Tacloban City. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. Tropical Storm Matmo is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to develop with strong convective activity and formative banding around the center. There is still some northeasterly shear that is limiting the rate of intensification. However, further analysis suggests that an eyewall may already be forming and that system could intensify at a faster pace over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There has been a significant change with our forecast track. Since Matmo intensified quickly last night, it moved farther to the west than we initially anticipated. This has led to our forecast track being adjusted to the left and is now taking Matmo (Henry) closer to the Philippine coast. However at this point, we still don't think the storm will make landfall in the country.

Nevertheless, light to moderate rains may continue impacting Visayas and parts of Luzon and Mindanao over the next few days. Matmo will also intensify throughout the forecast and could undergo a period of rapid intensification in the next 2 to 3 days. Our long-range forecast is currently showing a track towards Taiwan by middle part of next week.

We'll have another update later this evening.

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