Tropical Disturbance Peipha (Domeng) Update #11 (FINAL)

Issued (13 UTC) 9pm PhT 041014
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Peipha (Domeng) has weakened to a Tropical Disturbance or a Low Pressure Area over the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 250km west northwest of Palau or about 760km east northeast of Davao City. Peipha is moving eastward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection continues to flare around the system. However, it is very disjointed and continues to be sheared away from the low-level center. Most weather agencies in the region have now downgraded Peipha into a mere Low Pressure Area.

Despite the weakening, the system will still linger over the Philippine Sea and may still bring rains to parts of the Philippines in the coming days. We will also continue monitoring this LPA for possible signs of reintensification.

This will be our Final Warning for Peipha.

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #10

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 040914
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Tropical Depression Peipha (Bagyong Domeng) remains very weak as it lingers over the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 460km west northwest of Palau or about 530km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Peipha is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Peipha continuing to struggle amidst the unfavorable conditions in the region. Convective activity remains sparse and disorganized while the low-level center is still somewhat exposed. Wind shear across the Philippine Sea is also on the moderate to high side and will continue to hamper any significant intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Tropical Depression Peipha will continue moving slowly to the northwest over the next few days. Due to the unfavorable atmospheric conditions, we are not expecting any significant intensification to occur. However, light to moderate rains will still overspread Visayas and parts of Mindanao in the next 2 to 3 days. Peipha could make landfall somewhere in Eastern Visayas, possibly in Samar, by Saturday as a weakening cyclone.

We'll have our next update later today.

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #9

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 040814
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Tropical Depression Paphei (Bagyong Domeng) is showing signs of life this morning as it slowly moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 660km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Paphei is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity has increased this morning and has formed closer to the low-level center. However, wind shear is still in the moderate strength and will continue to limit intensification in the coming days. Nevertheless, there is a chance that Paphei will strengthen into a Tropical Storm today.

The bulk of heavy rains associated with Paphei remain offshore east of Mindanao. However, scattered light rains have begun affecting the region and will continue to do so in the next few days. Paphei is forecast to move northwestward and could make landfall somewhere in Surigao Provinces by Thursday. Heavy rains will begin to spread into Mindanao and parts of Visayas beginning tomorrow.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #8

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 040714
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Tropical Depression Paphei (Bagyong Domeng) continues to struggle intensifying as it pushes towards the Southern Philippines. Paphei was last located approximately 300km southwest of Palau or about 700km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Paphei is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 Latest satellite image shows strong convection forming near the circulation center. However, the bulk of activity is still displaced to the west. Strong easterly shear remains a factor making it difficult for Paphei to intensify significantly. However, these strong upper-level winds are beginning to blow the clouds towards Mindanao and could bring rainfall in the region.

Tropical Depression Paphei (Domeng) will continue moving generally westward in the next few days. Paphei may still be able to re-intensify back to a Tropical Storm once the wind shear relaxes a bit but typhoon intensity is unlikely at this point.

Rainfall may begin, especially across Surigao, Agusan, and Davao Provinces. 30 to 50mm of rain should be expected within the next 24 hours with heavier rains likely to come by Tuesday and into Wednesday. We're expecting landfall to occur somewhere in Surigao del Sur by Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Depression Peipha (Domeng) Update #7

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 040714
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Peipha has weakened to a Tropical Depression this morning as it continues to battle moderate wind shear. The system has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has been assigned the local name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA. TD Peipha (Domeng) was last located approximately 120km west southwest of Palau or about 870km east of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are down to 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Peipha is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows much of the convection remains displaced west of the circulation center. Moderate wind shear continues to hamper development and looks like will remain that way for the next 24 hours. Due to this, significant re-intensification may no longer occur and strengthening to a Typhoon-intensity is becoming very unlikely.

Tropical Depression Peipah will continue moving westward over the next two days. Clouds from this system may begin to move in towards Southern Philippines and could start bringing rains in the region beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Heavy rains are expected to persist across Southern Philippines throughout the early part of the week. Some areas may see as much as 200mm which will increase the likelihood of flooding and landslides.

Anyone living in parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas should continue monitoring the developments of Peipha/Domeng.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Peipah Update #6

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 040614
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Tropical Storm Peipah continues to struggle amidst the moderate wind shear in the region. The storm was last located approximately 160km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Peipah is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Peipah is still very disorganized with much of the convection being displaced to the west. Moderate easterly wind shear has been hampering development for the past two days and the satellite presentation has actually gotten slightly worse today with the low-level circulation center being partially exposed. Nevertheless, Peipah is still bringing copious amount of rainfall across Palau. As much as 100mm of rain has already fallen since yesterday and another 50 to 100mm could fall tonight.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Stormy conditions across Palau should end in the next 12 to 24 hours. We are also expecting Peipah to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tonight, which should then be given the local name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA.

TS Peipah still have about three days over the open waters of the Philippine Sea. However, since the wind shear is expected to remain on the moderate side, we're limiting the intensification forecast for Peipah. Based on the latest data from the computer models and other sources, there is an increasing chance for landfall somewhere in the Southern Philippines by Tuesday and into Wednesday as a strong Tropical Storm. Heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surge will be the main threats across the eastern seaboard. Please remain vigilant and continue monitoring the development of this system.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Peipah Update #5

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 040514
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Tropical Storm Peipah has maintained its strength as it continues to move across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 540km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Peipah is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convection remains fragmented and shallow as the system continues to battle moderate easterly wind shear. Diurnal cycle also contributes to the lack of any strong convective activity earlier in the day. The image above also shows clouds are beginning to move in towards the Republic of Palau and to the island of Yap. Breezy conditions and light to moderate rains will soon impact the region.

Stormy conditions will last through late tomorrow night, especially for Palau. It is also around this time that we expect the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility; it will be assigned the name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA once that happens.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
We have tweaked our forecast track today. First, we no longer expect Peipah to become a Typhoon. However, there is still a small possibility, but that all depends if the wind shear weakens significantly enough. Second, the chances of landfall somewhere in the Philippines have increased and so we have shifted our track farther south and we now expect Peipah to move either towards Mindanao or the Visayas.

We still have low to moderate confidence with the forecast for the Philippines as the track and the intensity can still change. However, the likelihood of stormy conditions impacting Southern Philippines beginning Monday and lasting into Wednesday is increasing. We recommend residents living in these areas to continue monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Peipah.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Peipah Update #4

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 040514
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Tropical Depression 05W has intensified and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Peipah by the Japan Meteorological Agency. This system was last located approximately 740km east southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Peipah has also slightly accelerated and is now moving west northwestward at a speed of 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a more robust looking cyclone with strong convective activity in and around the storm center. Easterly wind shear is still dispersing the higher cloud tops to the western periphery. However, good equatorward outflow is helping to somewhat offset the effects of the said moderate wind shear.

Tropical Storm Peipah will soon affect Palau and Yap later today. Seas in the region will be rough and winds should start increasing in the said areas. Rain will also be a factor especially for Palau which could get as much as 200mm this weekend.

TS Peipah should also be entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (Saturday) and will, then, be given the local name 'Bagyong Domeng' by PAGASA. This system could, then, start impacting the Philippine Islands by Sunday and into Monday.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Tropical Depression 05W Update #3

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 040414
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Tropical Depression 05W failed to intensify into a Tropical Storm today as it continued to move across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,100km east southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 05W is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection is beginning to rebuild in and around TD 05W's center. Moderate wind shear has hampered the development of this system, especially earlier in the day where the low-level center was left partially exposed. We expect this shear to relax slightly in the coming days allowing TD 05W to resume intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Our forecast track remains generally the same and we still expect TD 05W to continue moving westward, moving near Palau by Monday. We are also expecting TD 05W to resume intensification and could still become a named Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Long-range forecasts point to a movement near or towards the Philippines by early next week. Right now, it is still difficult to pinpoint the intensity and exact track so our confidence remains low.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Depression 05W Update #2

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 040314
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Tropical Depression 05W has slightly intensified this afternoon as it continues to move westward across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,400km east southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are up to 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 05W is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity increasing and becoming more consolidated near the center. Overall outflow remains really good as well and combined with the weak wind shear and warm sea temperatures promote favorable conditions for continued intensification.

TD 05W will continue moving westward and could become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. By Saturday, the system is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and move near the island of Palau. Some computer models also show TD 05W becoming a typhoon by Sunday or Monday as it nears the Philippine Islands.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Depression 05W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 040314
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A new Tropical Depression has developed in the middle of the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 05W is located pretty far south, near the equator, and was last located approximately 1,580km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 05W is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
The satellite image above gives an idea on the location of TD 05W in relation to the islands in the Pacific, including the Philippines. It is still pretty far any populated areas and the time over water will help the system intensify and gather strength. Right now, TD 05W is in the early stages of development although convective activity is increasing continuously in the past 24 hours despite it being near the equator.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is expecting a continuous westward movement with a slight gain in latitude over the next two days. By Saturday, TD 05W should make a more northwesterly movement and could become a strong Tropical Storm by that time. We are also expecting the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility around this time frame.

Depending on the atmospheric conditions in the region, TD 05W has a chance of becoming a typhoon as it enters PAR. Although it is still too early to pinpoint which areas will be affected, residents living in Palau, Yap, and parts of the Philippines should closely monitor the developments of this system in the coming days.

We'll have another update later tonight.