Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Tropical Depression 05W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 040314

A new Tropical Depression has developed in the middle of the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 05W is located pretty far south, near the equator, and was last located approximately 1,580km southeast of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 05W is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The satellite image above gives an idea on the location of TD 05W in relation to the islands in the Pacific, including the Philippines. It is still pretty far any populated areas and the time over water will help the system intensify and gather strength. Right now, TD 05W is in the early stages of development although convective activity is increasing continuously in the past 24 hours despite it being near the equator.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is expecting a continuous westward movement with a slight gain in latitude over the next two days. By Saturday, TD 05W should make a more northwesterly movement and could become a strong Tropical Storm by that time. We are also expecting the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility around this time frame.

Depending on the atmospheric conditions in the region, TD 05W has a chance of becoming a typhoon as it enters PAR. Although it is still too early to pinpoint which areas will be affected, residents living in Palau, Yap, and parts of the Philippines should closely monitor the developments of this system in the coming days.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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