Tropical Update

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 063015
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The Western Pacific Basin is showing increased signs of activity and we might see a new Tropical Cyclone form today or tomorrow. We're currently monitoring a tropical disturbance, Invest 95W, that is slowly consolidating near the Caroline Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a HIGH chance of development within the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image above shows convection has increased and is becoming more consolidated, especially near the circulation center. Atmospheric conditions are ripe for development and computer models are also showing this disturbance developing in the coming days.

While it is still too early to pinpoint the exact track of Invest 95W, latest computer model outputs show the system moving generally westward, gathering strength throughout. The Caroline Islands, and eventually the Marianas, should be on the lookout for this system as it could pose a threat to the region this week.

We'll have more updates once this system becomes a Tropical Depression.

Tropical Update

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 011115
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The disturbance that we've been watching for the past few days remains largely disorganized as it moves across the Western Pacific. Invest 92W is located near the islands of Chuuk in Micronesia. The low-level circulation center is still elongated but convective activity has increased in the past 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

Computer models are still showing possible development in this area. It may be delayed due to strong wind shear and the presence of dry air immediately to the north. Based on the latest conditions, the disturbance will continue moving generally west northwestward and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in 3 to 5 days.

We'll continue to keep you posted regarding the progress of this disturbance.

Tropical Update

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 010715
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We hope everyone had a wonderful New Year!

While the Western Pacific is currently free from tropical cyclones, we are watching a disturbance which could eventually develop into a storm.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Invest 91W is located deep in the tropics, near the Caroline Islands, and has shown signs of consolidation in the past 24 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has given this LPA a "MEDIUM" chance of development. Computer model are also showing a cyclone development in the next 3 days.

Right now, it is still too early to tell where the system will head to, if it does actually develop. But based on the current conditions in the region, we expect Invest 91W to continue moving generally west northwestward and could affect the Mariana Islands in the next few days.

We'll continue watching this disturbance and will publish an update if necessary.

Tropical Depression 99W (Seniang) Update #1

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 122814
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A new Tropical Cyclone has developed just east of Mindanao this morning. The low pressure area that we've been watching for days has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 99W (Bagyong Seniang). The system was last located approximately 380km southeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 99W is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Camiguin Island, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows bursts of convection surrounding the circulation center of TD 99W. The system is still in the early stages of development and will continue to slowly consolidate in the next 24 hours. Bands of light to moderate rains are beginning to move into parts of Visayas and Eastern Mindanao. We expect conditions in the region to become rainier later this afternoon.

Tropical Depression 99W (Seniang) will continue to slowly intensify today and could become a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. It is forecast to move west northwestward and could move towards Northern Mindanao by tomorrow. Widespread rains should be expected across Mindanao and even into Visayas in the coming days. Residents in the region are advised to closely monitor the storm's development and as always, heed the warnings of the local officials.

We'll have another update later today. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm Sinlaku Update #5 (FINAL)

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 113014
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Tropical Storm Sinlaku is now rapidly weakening over Indochina after making landfall in Vietnam late last night. The system was last located approximately 340km north of Ho Chi Minh. Maximum sustained winds are down to 75ph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Sinlaku is moving westward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the core of Sinlaku has now moved inland and is currently crossing into Cambodia. Rains and strong winds are still affecting parts of Southern Vietnam but will soon move westward along with the storm. Aside from Cambodia, parts of Laos and Thailand will also see some rain showers associated with Sinlaku.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will continue rapidly weakening over the next 24 hours as it moves across Indochina. Widespread rains will linger across the region so flooding is still likely in many places. Sinlaku is forecast to completely dissipate by tomorrow.

This is our final update for Tropical Storm Sinlaku. A low pressure area near the Caroline Islands is being closely watched as it could develop into a Tropical Cyclone later in the week.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku (Queenie) Update #3

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 112814
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Tropical Depression 21W (Bagyong Queenie) has intensified into Tropical Storm Sinlaku this morning as it moves away from the Palawan. The system was last located approximately 230km northwest of Puerto Princesa City. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Sinlaku is moving westward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, and Cuyo Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the cluster of clouds associated with TS Sinlaku is now moving away from the Philippines. Rains will continue for Palawan and nearby islands this morning but should end later this afternoon. A low pressure area east of Mindanao, however, will move into the region and could bring another round of rains beginning tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Sinlaku will continue moving quickly westward across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tonight. It could intensify further in the coming days but should not reach Typhoon-status. Tropical Storm Sinlaku is forecast to make landfall in Central Vietnam by Sunday morning.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Update (TD Queenie)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 112614
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A low pressure area moving towards the Philippines has been upgraded into Tropical Depression "Queenie" by PAGASA earlier this morning. The system was last located approximately 300km northeast of Davao City and is moving west northwestward at 25kph. Maximum winds around the center are estimated to around 30 to 50kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Southern Leyte, Bohol, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Surigao del Norte, Surigao Island, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Davao Oriental, Compostella Valley, Dinagat Province, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, and Zamboanga del Norte.

VIS Image from NOAA

 
Latest visible satellite image shows TD Queenie moving near Southern Philippines. Rains are now affecting Visayas and parts of Mindanao and will continue to do so over the next 24 to 48 hours. While the system is showing some improvements with regards to structure, it is running out of time for further intensification as landfall is likely to occur by tomorrow. Nevertheless, widespread rains will still threaten the region and can still bring serious consequences in some areas.

Tropical Depression Queenie will continue moving generally westward over the next couple of days. Rains are forecast to continue through Friday before tapering off in the weekend. Up to 300mm of rain is possible in some locations bringing the threat of landslides and flooding. Please heed the warnings of your local officials, especially if you live in storm prone areas.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Update #12 (w/ Video)

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 071614
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If you have any pictures or videos showing the impacts of Glenda in your area, please share them with us through our Facebook Page (above) or through our email: philippineweather@yahoo.com

Please watch our Video Update for below for the latest analysis and forecasts for Typhoon Rammasun. We are also watching a developing low pressure area east of Mindanao so be sure to watch our video for more information about that LPA.

 
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) is now moving quickly away from the Philippines. The storm center was last located approximately 320km west northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph making Rammasun a Category 1 Typhoon. The system is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has removed most Signal Warnings in the country. However, Public Storm Warning Signal #1 is still up for the following areas: Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Latest satellite image shows the center of Rammasun is now moving away across the waters of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). There are still some residual rains moving across Southern and Central Luzon bringing light to moderate rain showers. We expect those to gradually taper off tonight and into tomorrow.

For the latest radar images, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)

Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving quickly to the northwest and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning (Thursday). We are also expecting the system to re-intensify as it moves across the open waters. Rammasun is forecast to move into Hainan Island by Friday afternoon and then towards Northern Vietnam by Saturday.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #16

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 071014
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Tropical Storm Neoguri continues to move quickly across Japan today. The system was last located approximately 130km south southeast of Osaka. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Neoguri is moving east northeast at 40kph.

Radar Image from JMA

Neoguri is skirting the coast along the Kii Peninsula and is bringing scattered light to moderate rains. Rains are also beginning to move eastward into Chubu and Kanto regions. Strong winds of up to 80kph are also still being reported along the southern coasts of Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures. For the latest radar images and official forecasts, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Due to the rapidly weakening nature of Neoguri, we are not expecting any torrential rainfall amounts across the region anymore. Some areas may still see up to 200mm of rain but most of the region should see less than that. Neoguri is also moving very quickly northeastward and will reach the Tokyo Area by tomorrow morning bringing breezy conditions and light rains. The system should be out of Honshu by tomorrow afternoon (Friday).

IR Image from NOAA

Aside from Neoguri, we are also watching a disturbance near the islands of Chuuk which could develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has already issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert indicating HIGH chance of development. The system is tracking northwestward and could impact Guam and the Mariana Islands in the next 2 to 3 days.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Neoguri Update #15 (w/ Video)

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070914
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Neoguri has now weakened to a Tropical Storm as it approaches the island of Kyushu. The storm center was last located approximately 280km west southwest of Nagasaki or about 320km west of Kagoshima. Maximum sustained winds are down to 110kph with gusts of up to 155kph. Neoguri is moving westward at 20kph.

Watch our Video Update below for the complete analysis and forecast for this storm.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Neoguri will continue to track eastward and will make landfall near the city of Kagoshima in Kyushu by early tomorrow morning (Thursday). It will then track along the southern portion of Shikoku and then move into Honshu by Thursday evening. Neoguri will continue rapidly weakening as it moves near the cities of Osaka and Nagoya by Friday morning. It will also move near the Tokyo Area by Friday afternoon. And by Saturday, we expect the system to move into the North Pacific away from Japan.

Rainfall amounts that could fall across the regions of Japan will range from 200 to as much as 400mm. Mountainous regions will be very susceptible to landslides and low-lying areas could see dangerous flash floods. As always, heed the warnings of your local officials!

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Update

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 070314
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A developing Tropical Disturbance (Invest 90W) continues to slowly consolidate over the warm Pacific Waters. This Low Pressure Area is expected to intensify into a Tropical Depression later today by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA).

Invest 90W was last located approximately 520km southeast of Guam. The low-level circulation center is still broad but is continuing to consolidate. Furthermore, convective activity in and around the circulation has increased over the past 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

 
Invest 90W will continue moving across a favorable region in the Western Pacific. Most computer models agree that this system will steadily intensify over the next few days and could even become a typhoon by this weekend. While the forecast track is still too early to be determined, preliminary analysis suggests that 90W may move northwestward and could impact parts of Japan by next week.

We'll have another update on this system as soon as it gets upgraded to a Tropical Depression.

Tropical Update

Issued (0030 UTC) 061414
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A Tropical Depression (Invest 95W) has formed in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). TD 95W was last located approximately 280km southeast of Hong Kong or about 540km northwest of Laoag City. Maximum winds are around 45 to 65kph. TD 95W is moving northward at a speed of 5kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convective clouds forming and wrapping around a broad center of circulation. We are not expecting this system to develop into a strong Tropical Cyclone. However, it will still bring widespread rains across the region, particularly in Southern China.

TD 95W will linger in the South China Sea for the next 24 hours before moving northward towards Guangdong Province. It will bring rains across the region including Hong Kong and parts of Taiwan. Parts of Luzon in the Philippines could also experience some scattered rains over the next few days as the systems enhances the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat).

Aside from TD 95W, there are no other tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific basin.

Tropical Update (TD Caloy)

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 032114
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A low pressure area east of the Philippines has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression by PAGASA and has given the local name of 'Caloy'. This system is located approximately 260km east of Surigao City and has maximum winds of 30 to 60kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the following provinces: Southern Leyte, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Southern part of Negros Occidental, Southern part of Negros Oriental, Northern part of Davao Oriental, Northern part of Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Dinagat, Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.

IR Image from FNMOC

 
Latest satellite image shows clouds forming in and around the circulation. These clouds will bring widespread light to moderate rains across Visayas and Mindanao. Some areas may see 50 to as much as 100mm of rainfall over the next two days increasing the possibility of flooding and even landslides.

TD Caloy is not forecast to intensify significantly but may linger in the Philippines for a few more days.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Update (TD Agaton)

Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 011714

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A Low Pressure Area (Invest 91W) that has been upgraded to Tropical Depression Agaton by PAGASA is currently spinning just east of the Visayas Islands in the Philippines. This same LPA has been lingering over the Philippines for over a week now, bringing widespread rainfall across Mindanao and into Visayas.

IR Image from NOAA

Deaths due to the heavy rains have climbed to more than 30 as of today with many casualties caused by flooding and landslides. Right now, the axis of the heaviest rains are over Samar and Leyte Islands. As much as 100mm of rain could fall over the next 24 hours alone.

Since PAGASA has upgraded the said LPA to TD Agaton, it has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Is., Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, and Compostella Valley. Residents are advised to stay away from landslide and flood prone areas. Always consul with your local officials for the latest warnings.

Invest 91W (TD Agaton) is forecast to remain near the Philippine Islands over the next 24 hours. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is also expecting this system to slowly gather strength and has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

We’ll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Haiyan Update #16 (VIDEO)

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 111013
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Typhoon Haiyan (Bagyong Yolanda) continues to move near Hainan Island and is on its way towards Northern Vietnam. The storm center was last located approximately 230km southwest of Haikou, Hainan or about 400km southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Haiyan is down to a Category 1 Typhoon with maximum sustained winds of 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. It is currently moving northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows rainclouds covering much of Hainan as the storm brushes the southwestern part of the island. The coastal city of Sanya recorded winds of up to 140kph. Furthermore, rainfall amounts of up to 250mm have been recorded across Hainan. We expect another 50 to 100mm to fall in the next 12 hours. Haiyan will move towards Northern Vietnam making landfall near Hanoi later tonight. Heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surge will threaten Vietnam and could bring widespread damages there.

For more information on Haiyan and the ongoing relief operations in the Philippines, please watch our video below:

We detail the threats of Haiyan for Vietnam. We also give an update on the situation in the Philippines and the first images out of Guiuan, Eastern Samar showing the destruction in that town. We are also updating viewers on the possible storm that could impact the Philippines this week. If it does form, PAGASA will give the name Bagyong Zoraida and could bring rains for Visayas.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) Update #14 (w/ Video)

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 110913
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NOTE: If you have any images or videos showing the aftermath of the storm, please share them with us at philippineweather@yahoo.com or by our Facebook Page HERE

Typhoon Haiyan (Bagyong Yolanda) has finally left the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is now heading towards Vietnam. The storm center was last located approximately 750km west of Manila or about 650km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Haiyan is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

Watch our video below for the in-depth details on Typhoon Haiyan and the trail of destruction that it left across the Central Philippines.

Typhoon Haiyan will move towards Vietnam and will likely make landfall just south of Vietnam by early Monday morning as a strong Category 2 typhoon. Widespread heavy rains will bring flooding across Hanoi and the Red River Delta. Strong winds of up to 160kph and storm surges of up to 6 feet could batter the coast. Parts of Southwestern China (especially Hainan Island) and Laos could also see some stormy conditions brought by Haiyan.

We are also watching a potential cyclone that could impact the Philippines by next week. That portion is near the end of the video.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Tropical Storm Krosa Update #12

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 110313
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Tropical Storm Krosa continues to weaken as it moves across the South China Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 430km southwest of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Krosa is moving southwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows convection is nearly gone now and the low-level center is becoming fully exposed. Upper-level winds continue to take their toll on the system leaving the core disjointed between the low-level and mid-level circulations. Krosa will continue to weaken as conditions in the region remain unfavorable for cyclone development.

Tropical Storm Krosa will continue moving southwestward and could dissipate by as early as tomorrow. It will move near Hainan later today but we are not expecting any significant impacts anymore aside from strong winds and rough waves along the coast.

The satellite image also shows rainclouds associated with Tropical Depression 30W affecting parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the Philippines. This developing depression was last located approximately 160km east of Surigao City and is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph. For some reason, PAGASA hasn't upgraded this to a Tropical Depression yet; both JTWC and JMA have already done so.

This depression will continue moving towards Visayas bringing unsettled weather in the region. Some places, especially in Northern Mindanao, Cebu, Bohol, Siargao, and Leyte may see 50mm or more of rainfall through the next 12 hours. Strong winds and rough waves will also threaten the said areas.

We'll have more updates later today.

Tropical Update

Issued (1530 UTC) 1130pm PhT 110313
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We are currently watching two potential cyclones developing in the Western Pacific (aside from Tropical Storm Krosa). One low pressure area (TD 30W) is actually already affecting the Philippines, while the other is moving south of the Marianas Islands.

IR Image from NOAA

 
The first tropical disturbance was last located approximately 260km east southeast of Surigao City in Mindanao. This system is moving west northwestward at 20kph and is already bringing light to moderate rains across parts of Mindanao and Eastern Visayas. While the system is still largely disorganized, the rain clouds associated with the disturbance will still bring unsettled weather across the southern half of the Philippines in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The other LPA (TD 31W) is moving in the middle of the Pacific and is located well southeast of the Marianas Islands. This system has the potential to become a strong cyclone in the coming days due to the favorable conditions along the path. Long-range forecasts from computer models are also suggesting that this system could threaten the Philippines by next week.

We'll continue closely monitoring these two systems over the next few days.

Typhoon Krosa Update #10

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 110313
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Typhoon Krosa is weakening this morning as it meanders near the coast of China. The storm center was last located approximately 230km south southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Krosa is moving southward at 5kph.

Hong Kong Observatory continues to issue Standby Signal No. 1 and continues to advise regarding the high swells generated by Krosa.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon Krosa is starting to encounter stronger wind shear which is disrupting the convective activity. The eye is no longer defined and further analysis suggests the eyewall is becoming disrupted especially along the southern periphery.

Krosa should begin to turn to the southwest today as the ridge in Southwestern China is strengthening and becoming the more dominant steering layer in the region. It will also continue weakening and could be downgraded to a Tropical Storm later today. It will move near the island of Hainan by tomorrow and could bring scattered rain showers and gusty winds in the area.

Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance was spotted moving across the Philippine Sea today. This low pressure area, Invest 98W, will continue moving westward and could bring unsettled weather for parts of Mindanao and Visayas in the next two days.

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Francisco Update #8

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 102013
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Super Typhoon Francisco continues to move across the West Philippine Sea this morning. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 940km northwest of Guam or about 1,360km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. Super Typhoon Francisco is currently moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye remains well-defined and surrounded by strong convective activity. However, recent analysis suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle may be occurring which could lead to slight weakening in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, good radial outflow and warm sea surface temperatures should keep the weakening down to a minimum.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Francisco should be able to keep its Super Typhoon intensity until late tomorrow. It will also be entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow evening but is not forecast to impact the Philippines. Francisco will, then, move just east of Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands beginning Tuesday and could bring strong winds and light to moderate rains in the region.

Cooler sea surface temperatures and strong wind shear will lead to weakening starting Tuesday but should remain a powerful and dangerous typhoon as it nears the Japanese Islands. Latest computer models suggset a landfall near Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula in the island of Honshu. Francisco could make landfall by Thursday afternoon as a strong Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves will definitely be the main threats in the area during that time.

We'll have another update later today.