Monday, June 29, 2015

Tropical Update

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 063015

The Western Pacific Basin is showing increased signs of activity and we might see a new Tropical Cyclone form today or tomorrow. We're currently monitoring a tropical disturbance, Invest 95W, that is slowly consolidating near the Caroline Islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for a HIGH chance of development within the next 24 hours.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image above shows convection has increased and is becoming more consolidated, especially near the circulation center. Atmospheric conditions are ripe for development and computer models are also showing this disturbance developing in the coming days.

While it is still too early to pinpoint the exact track of Invest 95W, latest computer model outputs show the system moving generally westward, gathering strength throughout. The Caroline Islands, and eventually the Marianas, should be on the lookout for this system as it could pose a threat to the region this week.

We'll have more updates once this system becomes a Tropical Depression.

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