Tropical Storm Kalmaegi Update #11 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 08am PhT 091714
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Kalmaegi has now weakened to a Tropical Storm after making landfall in Vietnam last night. The system was last located approximately 160km northwest of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moving across Northern Vietnam. Clouds associated with the system are currently moving across Indochina bringing periods of light to moderate rains and gusty winds. Hanoi recorded winds of up to 100kph in the early morning hours but are starting to weaken.

Heavy rainfall amounts of up to 200mm have also been recorded in Northern Vietnam and parts of Southern China. Heavy rains will extend south into Laos, Thailand, and Myanmar. The region could receive anywhere from 100 to 200mm of rain over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Kalmaegi will continue weakening quickly and should completely dissipate by Thursday.

This will be our final update for Tropical Storm Kalmaegi. We are currently watching a low pressure area that could become a Tropical Depression later today. This system is located in the Philippine Sea. We'll have full updates once it gets upgraded to a depression.

Typhoon Kalmaegi Update #10 (LANDFALL)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091614
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Typhoon Kalmaegi (Formerly Bagyong Luis) is now making landfall in the Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong Province, China. The system was last located approximately 100km south of Zhanjiang or 440km west southwest of Hong Kong.Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the clouds associated with Kalmaegi are now moving towards Guangdong Province in Southern China. The system has intensified over the past 24 hours but is finally interacting with land which should halt any further development. Nevertheless, Kalmaegi is still very powerful and is already bringing winds of up to 160kph as reported by numerous weather stations in Guangdong.

Radar Image from CMA

Latest radar image out of the region, courtesy of China Meteorological Administration, shows the eye of Kalmaegi clearly visible and making landfall in Leizhou Peninsula. Very heavy rains rains and strong winds are now battering the area as well as parts of Hainan Island. There have already been reports of up to 100mm of rain falling in the last 12 hours alone. We're expecting an additional 100 to as much as 200mm of rain over the next 24 hours.

For the latest radar images and forecasts from China, please click HERE (CMA Website).

Typhoon Kalmaegi will continue to track quickly to the west today. Stormy weather will prevail across Southern Guangdong throughout today and will shift west towards Guangxi by tonight. Northern Vietnam, including Hanoi, will also start to feel the effects of Kalmaegi tonight. The system is forecast to move into Vietnam shortly after midnight and will pass very closely to the city of Hanoi by early tomorrow morning (Wednesday). The city can expect strong winds of up to 140kph, along with periods of heavy rain. Up to 300mm can fall in the region over the next few days.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Update #9

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091514
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Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has re-intensified into a Typhoon as it continues to move across the South China (West Philippine Sea). The system was last located approximately 380km west of Laoag City or about 530km southeast of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving westward at 30kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has dropped Public Storm Warning Signals 3 and 2. However, Signal #1 is still in effect for Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Abra, and Pangasinan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Kalmaegi beginning to re-intensify as it is now back into the open waters. Banding has resumed and convective activity remains strong, especially near the center. We expect continued intensification as Kalmaegi moves westward.

Hong Kong and parts of Southern China will soon feel the effects of Kalmaegi. Bands of light to moderate rains, along with gusty winds and rough surf, will affect the coast beginning later this afternoon. The strongest winds will stay offshore today but is forecast to impact Guangdong Province as the Kalmaegi makes landfall there early tomorrow morning (Tuesday). It will move near the island of Hainan as a strong Typhoon and then into Northern Vietnam by Tuesday evening and into Wednesdsay.

Weather conditions in the Philippines should continue to improve now that Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving away.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Update #8

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 091514
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Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has weakened to a Tropical Storm as it exits the island of Luzon. The system was last located approximately 150km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte or about 270km north northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Ilocos Norte.

Signal #2 for Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mt. Province, and Ilocos Sur.

Signal #1 for Isabela, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, and Batanes Group of Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the core of Kalmaegi being disrupted as it crossed the island of Luzon. Convection remains strong, however, and we are starting to see signs that Kalmaegi is beginning to recover over the South China Sea. Strong winds and heavy rains continue to pound western portions of Luzon but should begin to taper off later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will continue moving quickly to the northwest today and weather conditions should start to improve across Luzon later this afternoon. The system is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility later today. Kalmaegi will move well south of Hong Kong but may still bring rains and gusty winds in the region. We are forecasting Kalmaegi to make landfall in Guangdong Province in Southern China by tomorrow morning (Tuesday) as a strong Typhoon.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Update #7 (LANDFALL)

Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 091514
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Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has made landfall in the island of Luzon earlier this afternoon and continues to move across the region. The system was last located approximately 10km northeast of Laoag, Ilocos Norte; 140km northwest of Tuguegarao, Cagayan; or about 200km north of Baguio City. Maximum sustained winds are at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 11pm this evening, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:
Signal #3: Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Mt. Province, and Ilocos Sur.

Signal #2: Batanes Group of Islands, Isabela, Ifugao, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and Pangasinan.

Signal #1: Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Quirino, and Aurora.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Typhoon Kalmaegi covering much of Northern Luzon. The strong central convection is now moving across Ilocos Norte (near the city of Laoag) and will soon move into the waters of the South China Sea. Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) made landfall near the towns of Maconacon and Divilacan in Isabela Province around 5pm this afternoon. It then crossed into Cagayan, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and right now is moving across Ilocos Norte.

Radar Image from Subic (ClimateX PH)

While the heaviest rains are currently impacting Northern Luzon, parts of Central and Southern Luzon are also seeing moderate to heavy rains tonight. Latest radar image from Subic, courtesy of PAGASA, shows bands of heavy rains moving into the region. Rainfall amounts of 100 to 200mm are possible overnight which could trigger numerous landslides and flash floods. For the latest radar images and rainfall forecasts, please click HERE (ClimateX PH Website)

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) will exit Luzon in a couple of hours. However, strong winds and heavy rains will continue across Northern Luzon through the evening and morning hours of Monday. Parts of Central and Southern Luzon will also continue to see unsettled weather through tomorrow due to the Southwest Monsoon. Weather conditions across the Philippines should start to improve by Monday evening.

Typhoon Kalmaegi will continue to track west northwestward and should re-intensify over the open waters. It will pass south of Hong Kong but may still bring rains and gusty winds in the region. Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall in Guangdong Province in Southern China by Tuesday morning.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) Update #6 (w/ Video)

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 091414
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Here is our latest Video Update for Kalmaegi containing in-depth analysis and forecasts for this typhoon:

 
Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) is now starting to interact with the island of Luzon with landfall expected in the next 3 to 6 hours. The center of Kalmaegi was last located approximately 140km east of Ilagan, Isabela or about 180km east southeast of Tuguegarao, Cagayan. Maximum sustained winds are at 130kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Ifugao.

Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, and Quirino.

Signal #1 for Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Northern Quezon, and Polilio Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast of Kalmaegi has further improved and strengthened. However, the system is running out of time as it is nearing the island of Luzon. Western portions of the core are now beginning to interact with the rugged terrain which should limit intensification.

The center of Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) is forecast to make landfall in the province of Isabela later this evening. The system will then cross the provinces of Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and eventually into Ilocos Norte before exiting into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Strong and damaging winds will be felt near the center of Kalmaegi. Meanwhile, torrential rainfall will overspread much of Northern Luzon and even into parts of Central and Southern Luzon.

Weather conditions will remain dangerous overnight and into tomorrow morning. Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials. Do not use our forecasts in life or death situations!

We'll have another update later this evening.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #5

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 091414
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Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has maintained its intensity as it moves ever closer to Luzon. The system was last located approximately 320km north northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 350km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds remain at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Quirino, and Northern Aurora. Signal #2 for Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, and Rest of Aurora. Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Catanduanes, and Polilio Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to strengthen and become more uniform. Good radial outflow is helping the system overcome the moderate wind shear in the region. Further analysis also reveals a developing eyewall which could become fully complete later and could lead to an eye forming before it makes landfall.

Bands of moderate to heavy rains continue to affect Luzon and parts of Visayas. Many places have already received 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours alone. Additional 100mm of rain is still possible and will shift northward towards Northern Luzon later today. There could be 200 to 300mm of rain falling in that region until Monday and flooding and landslides are highly possible.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) will continue moving west northwestward and will continue to intensify before it moves inland. We have adjusted our track slightly northward and are now expecting Kalmaegi to make landfall somewhere in the Isabela/Cagayan area by tonight. By that time, Kalmaegi could be a powerful and dangerous Category 2 Typhoon. It will cross Northern Luzon and exit through Ilocos Norte by early Monday morning. Weather conditions will not improve until Monday afternoon.

Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials! We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #4

Issued (15 UTC) 11pm PhT 091314
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Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has further intensified and is now a Typhoon! The system was last located approximately 370km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 520km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Kalmaegi is mowing west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 11pm tonight, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Isabela and Cagayan. Signal #2 for Calayan and Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Kalinga, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, and Northern Aurora. Signal #1 for Batanes Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Benguet, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Rest of Aurora, Polilio Island, and Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continuing to develop and intensify. Strong convective activity in and around the center continues as the system tries to form an eyewall. Kalmaegi remains in an area of favorable conditions and we expect further intensification until landfall tomorrow.

Radar Image from ClimateX

 
Latest radar image shows heavy rains moving across Central and Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila. Rains will continue overnight and will spread northwards by tomorrow morning. Up to 100mm of rain is possible in the next 24 hours which could cause some flooding and landslides. Rain will not taper off in Luzon until Monday.

 For the latest radar image, please click HERE (ClimateX PH Website)

Typhoon Kalmaegi will continue moving west northwestward over the next 24 hours. It will also continue to intensify and could become a Category 2 Typhoon by tomorrow afternoon. Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall in Northern Luzon by tomorrow night (Sunday). The provinces of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan will see the strongest winds as the system moves ashore. Entire Northern Luzon will also see stormy conditions Sunday and into Monday. Parts of Central and Southern Luzon, including Manila, will also see stormy conditions tomorrow and into Monday.

If you live in the areas mentioned in our update, please prepare now and always follow the warnings of your local officials! We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #3

Issued (23 UTC) 7am PhT 091314
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Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis) has intensified even further overnight as it nears the Philippine Islands. The system was last located approximately 530km east of Virac, Catanduanes or about 790km southwest of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Kalmaegi is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Isabela, Southern Cagayan, Northern Aurora, and Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to increase in and around Kalmaegi's circulation. The system is still battling some northerly shear but good radial outflow is helping it to continue intensification. Furthermore, rain clouds are now moving into parts of the Philippines this morning bringing heavy rains to the region. Rains will continue to spread westward and northward today and into tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will continue moving westward and then turn northwestward by tonight. Strong winds and heavy rains will soon be felt across the Bicol Region by tomorrow morning. Kalmaegi may also reach Typhoon intensity by tomorrow morning (Sunday). Central and Northern Luzon, including Metro Manila, will also start seeing some stormy weather by tonight which will worsen by tomorrow.

Kalmaegi is forecast to make landfall somewhere in the provinces of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday evening as a strong and dangerous typhoon. Heavy rains and strong winds will affect Central and Northern Luzon by Sunday and into Monday. Parts of Southern Luzon will also see stormy conditions.

Residents across Luzon and parts of Visayas should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. If you live in areas under Signal Warnings, especially in Northern Luzon, please start preparing now.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Update #2

Issued (1230 UTC) 830pm PhT 091214
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A Tropical Depression 15W has intensified into Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Bagyong Luis). The system was last located approximately 620km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kalmaegi is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the province of Catanduanes.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image continues to show improvements regarding Kalmaegi's organization. Central convection remains strong and banding continues to improve. Radial outflow is good as well as the system takes advantage of the favorable conditions in the region. The system could start rapidly intensifying tonight and into tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi will continue on a westward movement tonight but should start turning more to the west northwest by tomorrow. Favorable conditions will promote continued intensification right before landfall. There hasn't been much change with the forecast track. We're still thinking Kalmaegi (Luis) will make landfall somewhere in Central or Northern Luzon by Sunday evening as a strong Typhoon. Rains will start impacting Southern Luzon and Visayas and will shift northward by Saturday.

Please closely monitor the progress of this storm and as always heed the warnings of your local officials. We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Depression 15W (Luis) Update #1

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091214
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A new Tropical Cyclones has developed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Depression 15W evolved from a disturbance in the Pacific and is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, earning the local name of 'Bagyong Luis'. The system was last located approximately 780km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 15W is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows TD 15W (Luis) rapidly consolidating over the Philippine Sea. Formative banding continue to develop and wrap around the circulation center. We're expecting the system to continue intensifying as the environment is favorable for cyclone intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 15W will continue strengthening and will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by this evening. Rains will start affecting parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas later tonight as well and into tomorrow. Conditions will deteriorate over the weekend.

TD 15W may undergo rapid intensification and it is highly likely that the system will attain Typhoon status before it moves into Luzon. Right now, it is still too early to pinpoint where the system will exactly make landfall. However, chances are high that it will move somewhere in Northern Luzon by Sunday evening and into early Monday morning.

Again, this is a developing and dangerous storm. Anywhere from Luzon to Eastern Visayas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. We'll have another update later tonight.