Thursday, September 11, 2014

Tropical Depression 15W (Luis) Update #1

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091214

A new Tropical Cyclones has developed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Depression 15W evolved from a disturbance in the Pacific and is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, earning the local name of 'Bagyong Luis'. The system was last located approximately 780km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 15W is moving westward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows TD 15W (Luis) rapidly consolidating over the Philippine Sea. Formative banding continue to develop and wrap around the circulation center. We're expecting the system to continue intensifying as the environment is favorable for cyclone intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 15W will continue strengthening and will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm by this evening. Rains will start affecting parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas later tonight as well and into tomorrow. Conditions will deteriorate over the weekend.

TD 15W may undergo rapid intensification and it is highly likely that the system will attain Typhoon status before it moves into Luzon. Right now, it is still too early to pinpoint where the system will exactly make landfall. However, chances are high that it will move somewhere in Northern Luzon by Sunday evening and into early Monday morning.

Again, this is a developing and dangerous storm. Anywhere from Luzon to Eastern Visayas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. We'll have another update later tonight.

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