Tropical Update

We continue to watch the same weather features we've noted yesterday: cold front east of Luzon, the monsoon trough in Indochina, and the disturbances across the Tropical Pacific.

IR Image from NRLMRY

A cold-front continues to push east of Luzon. Behind it, cool northeasterly winds will promote cloudy and damp weather across much of Northern and Eastern Luzon. Rain showers will generally be light and temperatures will remain steady in the 20's lowland and low to mid teens in elevated regions such as Baguio. Farther to the south, the easterlies will bring chances of rain across Eastern Visayas and Mindanao today. Rest of the Philippines will have partly cloudy skies with small chances of precipitation especially in the afternoon.

Across Indochina, the monsoon trough continues to bring moderate rains across Malay Peninsula. Some areas here have actually recorded more than 150mm of rain since yesterday. Flooding and landslides are possible especially along the Thailand-Malaysia border. Rains will continue out here for at least another day.

As for the Tropics, the disturbance that we first mentioned yesterday continues to push westward and is moving across Micronesia today. Very little improvement is observed since yesterday. For now, chances of development remain low. The computer models continue to show some development as we head into Wednesday and Thursday. We'll have to wait and see how this impacts Southern Philippines.

Have a safe and happy new year everyone!
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 123112

Tropical Update

Remnants of Wukong, ITCZ, Cold-Front, and a possible tropical cyclone development contain our Tropical Update for today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

We begin with the remnants of Wukong and the ITCZ which have brought heavy rains across Indochina over the past 24 hours. As expected, the convection associated with Wukong's energy has moved southwestward into Indochina, particularly into the Malay Peninsula. Areas across the Thailand and Malaysia border have reported nearly 100mm of rain since yesterday. Unfortunately, precipitation will continue across this region throughout tomorrow.

Meanwhile, frontal systems continue to move across East Asia, with the latest one bringing mixed bag of precipitation across Japan. The tail-end of that cold front is enhancing some rain showers across Eastern Taiwan and also in Northern Luzon. The northernmost provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora, including the islands of Babuyan and Calayan, will continue to have damp weather with scattered to widespread light to moderate rains. As much as 50mm of rain could fall here through tomorrow. Rest of the Philippines will have partly cloudy skies with possible rain across the eastern portions of Visayas and also out in the Bicol Region.

Finally, we are watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving across Western Micronesia. We've mentioned yesterday about the possibility of a cyclone forming sometime next week. Today, computer models continue to hint at that scenario and this particular cloud cluster could definitely develop into a disturbance. Wind shear is still moderate but latest analysis show vorticity in the region is increasing which is usually indicative of a low pressure area beginning to form. As of this time, the chances of development are still low. As far as the forecast is concerned, we won't expect a cyclone formation until perhaps by the middle of next week. For now, though, just be aware that the chances of seeing our first storm in 2013 is increasing.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 123012

Tropical Update

Wukong has finally dissipated over the South China Sea. However, its remnants will continue to bring light rains across Indochina. Meanwhile, much of the Philippines remain quiet except for the northern and eastern sections.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Wukong dissipated early this morning and all agencies have given their final warnings for this system. However, Wukong's remnants are still bringing scattered rain showers across Southern Vietnam. It will also bring rains into Thailand and Malaysia as it moves into the Malay Peninsula. Not much is expected here although some areas may still get up to 50mm of rain tonight and into tomorrow.

A cold-front is enhancing some rain showers across Northern Luzon particularly in the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Islands north of Luzon such as Calayan and Babuyan are also seeing some rains since yesterday. Some areas here could see up to 80mm of rain over the next 24 hours. Eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao may also see some light rains showers tomorrow.

As for the Tropics, we're not seeing any disturbance that could develop into a cyclone over the next few days. However, there are indications of a possible weak cyclone that could form by late next week. A couple of models and their ensemble counterpart are beginning to show this scenario. Please note that this is not, in any way, set in stone and the chances right now are still pretty small--just something to keep in mind as we ring in the New Year.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 122912

Tropical Depression Wukong Update #9

Tropical Depression Wukong is starting to weaken once again as it moves across the South China Sea. The system was last located approximately 520km southeast of Ho Chi Minh Ctiy. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. Wukong is moving west southwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the impressive convective activity that we observed earlier this morning has weakened. Moderate wind shear and some dry air seems to have caused the weakening. However, wind shear is forecast to get lighter so we will continue to watch this system if it makes one more push of intensification by tonight.

Either way, Wukong isn't really posing any serious threats for Southern Vietnam other than maybe some light rain showers. In fact, Japan Meteorological Agency has already given their final TC Warning for Wukong. JTWC, on the other hand, is still issuing regular bulletins and expects Wukong to continue moving west southwestward and could potentially dissipate altogether by tomorrow (Saturday).

As for the Philippines, only the northern portions of Luzon are forecast to see moderate rains over the next day or so. The combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and the easterlies are enhancing light to moderate rains in the eastern part of Luzon, particularly in the provinces of Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Some areas here could receive up to 50mm of rain over the next 24 to 36 hours.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122812

Tropical Depression Wukong (Quinta) Update #8

Tropical Depression Wukong (formerly Bagyong Quinta) has finally exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It was last located approximately 720km east of Ho Chi Minh City or about 370km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan. Maximum sustained winds remain at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. Wukong is moving west southwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Wukong is showing signs of life with strong convective activity (which began last night) persisting. However, the low-level center is still partially displaced due to moderate wind shear in the region. Wukong is no longer impacting any land except the islands dotting the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea).

TD Wukong will continue moving west southwestward. It will probably hang on to that Tropical Depression intensity throughout the day today before starting to completely dissipate by tomorrow. It could also slightly affect Southern Vietnam tomorrow.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
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Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 122812

Tropical Depression Wukong (Quinta) Update #7 (w/ Video)

Here is our video update on Wukong (Quinta). Scroll down below for our complete Text Update.

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Text Update

Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) remains a Tropical Storm according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) whereas both Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA have given their final warnings for this system. Wukong was last located approximately 340km west of Puerto Princesa, Palawan and is moving westward at 25kph. While JMA says the system is still a tropical storm, latest satellite images and wind data suggest that Wukong has weakened to a Tropical Depression. So our analysis here on this blog puts the winds to around 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. Please do note that the video above uses JMA data in deference to the authority of that RSMC; no way is our analysis on this blog official.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows weak convective activity remains near the storm center. Strong wind shear has lead to the sudden weakening over the past 24 hours and has left the low-level center partially exposed.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Due to the unfavorable conditions in the region, we no longer expect Wukong to intensify although it may remain at least a depression by tomorrow. It will continue to head west southwestward and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tonight. By late Friday or early Saturday, Wukong should completely dissipate south of Vietnam.

As far as rainfall goes, much of the Philippines should experience much better weather by tomorrow. However, rain showers may still impact the eastern portions of the country particularly in Northern Luzon and the Bicol Region. Some areas here may still see up to 50mm of rain. Always check with PAGASA and also at ClimateX PH for the latest rainfall forecast and doppler radar images.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 122712

Tropical Storm Wukong (Quinta) Update #6

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) is weakening significantly as it moves north of Palawan. In fact, it has weakened so much that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has given its final warning on this storm. On the other hand, both the PAGASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) continue to provide regular updates. The system was last located approximately 80km west southwest of Coron. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Wukong is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Occidental Mindoro, Northern Palawan, Calamian Islands, and Cuyo Island.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows very little convection associated with Wukong. Increasing vertical wind shear is what seems to be causing this abrupt weakening. Therefore, much of the heavy rains from last night have dissipated; strong winds are also beginning to die down.

Meanwhile, moderate rains continue to impact the Bicol Region this morning with some areas already receiving up to 80mm last night. Camarines Provinces along with Catanduanes, continue to see these bands of precipitation. They may see another 50 to even 100mm of rain as we head into the afternoon. Rest of the country will have cloudy skies with increased chance of precipitation especially in Eastern Luzon and Visayas.

TS Wukong (Quinta) will continue to weaken this afternoon and may even dissipate completely as it heads into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). We'll have another update later this afternoon.
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 122712

Tropical Storm Wukong (Quinta) Update #5 (w/ Video)

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas! Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Wukong. Scroll down below for our complete Text Update.

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Text Update

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) continues to move across Central Philippines. The storm is currently exiting the island of Panay and was last located approximately 120km northwest of Iloilo City or about 130km southeast of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Wukong is moving westward at 25kph.

Latest Signal Warnings from PAGASA as of 5pm today:
Signal #1: Mindoro, Romblon, Lubang Island, Northern Palawan, Calamian Group of Islands, Cuyo Island, Marinduque, Aklan, Capiz, Antiue, Iloilo, Negros Occidental, and Guimaras.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the core of Wukong remains intact despite land interaction. Convective activity remains good and continues to persist right over the circulation center. Sulu Sea may provide Wukong better environment for intensification as well as the approaching diurnal maximum this evening.

2-Day Rainfall Forecast

After two days of heavy rains, Eastern Visayas should begin to see gradual improvement in the weather by tomorrow. Some light rains are still possible but they won't be as widespread. The rainfall forecast above shows Western Visayas including Mindoro and Palawan getting heavy rains tomorrow. Some moderate rains also possible across Bicol Region. Across Mindanao, the possibilities of heavy rains also exist especially across Central and Eastern Portions of the islands. Up to 100 and even 150mm of rain is possible there over the next two days.

For access to Radar Image as well as rainfall data and forecast for your area, click HERE (ClimateX PH).

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) will continue to track westward and will be moving just north of Palawan (near Coron) by tomorrow morning. It will then continue to head into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) and could slightly intensify by that time. We expect Wukong to then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday morning and then begin to weaken to a Tropical Depression thereafter.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122612

Tropical Storm Wukong (Quinta) Update #4

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) made landfall in Leyte last night and is currently moving across Northern Cebu Island. The storm was last located approximately 80km north of Cebu City or about 70km east of Ormoc, Leyte. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Wukong is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has updated their Public Storm Warning Signals.

Signal #2: Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Entire Samar Island, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran, Bohol, Cebu, Camotes Island, Northern Part of Negros Occidental, and Dinagat Province.

Signal #1: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Cuyo Island, Burias Island, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Rest of Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, and Siargao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the core of Wukong/Quinta moving across the island of Cebu. The system made landfall in Leyte about 6 hours ago but hasn't really shown any weakening. The low-level center remains intact and is actually more aligned with the convective activity.

Radar from Cebu Station (ClimateX PH)

Latest radar image from Cebu City shows bands of light to moderate rain impacting many islands in the Visayas. Many areas have already reported 100mm of rain, Tacloban has actually received nearly 200mm of rain already! As much as 100mm of rain could still fall today especially across the islands of Cebu, Negros, Panay, and Masbate. Areas to the north such as the Bicol Region are also seeing light to moderate rains with areas such as Albay and Legaspi seeing 10mm of rain per hour.

For the latest radar images, please click HERE (ClimateX PH Website)

Rains will continue to overspread the Central Philippines particularly in Visayas and Bicol area today. Northern Mindanao will also see some light rains but the amounts should be less. Wukong will pass south of Masbate/north of Bacolod in about two hours. By noon, it should be moving across Northern Panay. We're not expecting significant intensification due to continuous land interaction. However, the heavy rains will remain a big threat from this system.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.

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Issued (2130 UTC) 530pm PhT 122612

Tropical Storm Wukong (Quinta) Update #3 (w/ Video)

Merry Christmas! Here is our latest Video Update on Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta). Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and numerous Forecast Images!

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Text Update

TD 27W (Bagyong Quinta) has now been upgraded into Tropical Storm Wukong by JMA (JTWC still classifying it as a Tropical Depression). The system was last located approximately 160km east northeast of Surigao City or about 150km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Wukong is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu (including Camotes Island), Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, and Surigao del Norte. Signal #1 for Northern Samar, Masbate (including Ticao Island), Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros, Siquijor, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and Surigao del Sur.

Areas mentioned above should expect stormy conditions including strong winds and heavy rains. Coordinate with your local officials for the latest warnings and possible evacuations. Stay safe!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the convective activity associated with Wukong impacting the islands in Visayas. The storm is having difficulties consolidating due to moderate wind shear. Nevertheless, convection has persisted and we are actually seeing another blow-up occurring near the low-level center. The approaching diurnal maximum could spur another round of intensification throughout the night.

Cebu Radar from ClimateX

Latest radar out of Cebu Station shows the bands of light to moderate rains impacting parts of Samar, Leyte, Dinagat Island, and also Bohol. Northern Mindanao also getting some light to moderate rains. Scattered showers are also being reported across Cebu, Negros, Iloilo, and the smaller islands in between. Many areas are already reporting more than 50mm of rain. In fact, Tacloban has already seen up to 80mm of rain since this morning and more could be on the way.

For the latest radar images and rainfall data for your area, please click HERE (ClimateX)

2-Day Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Here is our 2-day rainfall forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Green shadings represent around 50mm of rain, blue for 100mm, and red for up to 150mm of rain. The heaviest precipitation is forecast to fall across Central and Eastern Visayas. Some light to moderate rains may impact Northern Mindanao but they won't be as heavy. Parts of Eastern Luzon could also see some light to moderate rains due to converging winds.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Wukong (Bagyong Quinta) is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward. It could make landfall in Leyte Island later this evening or early tomorrow morning. Heavy rains will continue to pound Eastern Visayas throughout the night, especially as the storm moves closer. By tomorrow (Wednesday), more rains will overspread Central and Eastern Visayas and also across Northern Mindanao. Wukong will be tracking across many islands so we are not expecting any significant intensification. By Thursday, the system could be moving across Northern Palawan and should be exiting into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Friday.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122512

Tropical Depression 27W (Quinta) Update #2

Tropical Depression 27W (former 93W) continues to intensify as it nears the Eastern Philippines. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA have upgraded the LPA into a depression; PAGASA has given 27W a local name of 'Bagyong Quinta'. The system was last located approximately 380km east northeast of Surigao City or about 420km east southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 27W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for the islands of Samar and Leyte. Also under Signal #1 are the provinces of Surigao Del Norte, Dinagat Island, Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Provinces, and Camiguin Island. Please note that while we only have Signal #1, it doesn't mean the storm is not destructive anymore. There is a threat for widespread heavy rains across Visayas and parts of Mindanao today. Stay safe!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the significant improvements 27W has made in terms of organization overnight. The convective activity has increased and has also become more consolidated near the low-level center. There is still some shear though and we are noticing that center is still somewhat displaced. Nevertheless, the system will continue to bring the threat of heavy rains for Visayas today.

Radar Image from ClimateX PH

Using the Doppler Radar from Hinatuan Station, we can see bands of light to moderate rains beginning to move in from the east. Surigao Provinces will see these rains throughout the day today. Farther to the north, bands of light to moderate rains are also beginning to impact Samar and Leyte. These rains will continue throughout the day today and could bring as much as 100mm of rain bringing the possibility for floods and landslides.

For the latest Radar Images, please click HERE (ClimateX)

Tropical Depression 27W will continue to move west northwestward today, likely making landfall somewhere in Samar later this evening or perhaps early tomorrow morning. Despite this system being a weak tropical depression, do not underestimate it! The heavy precipitation it will bring can bring widespread flooding to many areas. Not only to Samar, Leyte, and Northern Mindanao, but to other parts of Visayas as well.

We'll have another update later today. Have a wonderful and safe Christmas!
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Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 122512

Tropical Depression Update and Christmas Forecast (w/ Video)

Here is our Video Update. Scroll down below for our Forecast Images.

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Japan Meteorological Agency has upgraded 93W into a Tropical Depression while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and PAGASA are keeping it as a weak low pressure area. This system has the potential to bring heavy rains across Central Philippines in the next few days. Here is our latest update on this system and also 2-day Christmas Forecast for the Philippines.

IR Image from NRLMRY

TD 93W was last located approximately 640km east of Surigao City. Maximum winds are around 40 to 60kph. The system is moving west northwestward at 30kph. IR Image above shows the system showing little improvement. Convective activity has persisted but is rather sparse and mediocre. The system is in an area of moderate wind shear so not a good environment for development. However, there is still a chance of it becoming a tropical storm so we'll watch it closely.

Track and Rainfall (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Map above shows the idealized forecast track from computer models. Note that the storm is somewhat north-heavy meaning that much of the rains are located north of the center. For this image, we expect the heaviest of rains to be felt across Visayas Islands, less across Mindanao. Some rains may also impact Luzon by Wednesday. Areas under green are forecast to receive around 50mm or rain; blue could get up to 100mm while areas under red shading could get as much as 150mm of rain over the next two days.

December 25 Forecast

For Christmas Day, expect rains to begin impacting Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao. Some light rain showers may also move into Southern Luzon particularly in the Bicol Region. Northern Luzon provinces should also expect occasional light rains due to the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Rest of the country, especially along the western sections, should have quieter weather with partly cloudy skies and small chances of rain.

December 26 Forecast

By Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to be moving across Visayas Islands. By this time, rainfall will be more widespread impacting not only Visayas but also parts of Mindanao and Luzon. Still, the heaviest of rains should be across the islands of Cebu, Panay, and Negros. Converging winds may also bring heavy rains across Eastern Luzon particularly across Aurora and Isabela. Furthermore, the Northeast Monsoon will continue to provide damp and cool weather across Northern Luzon.

Please note that the forecast images above are NOT OFFICIAL! Always listen to your local officials (PAGASA) for the latest forecast for your area. We won't have an update tomorrow; our next one will be on the 26th--Wednesday. Stay safe and have a Merry Christmas!!
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Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 122412

Tropical Update

Invest 93W is looking less likely to develop as it remains disorganized over the Pacific. Meanwhile, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is enhancing some showers across the Tropics today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W remains largely disorganized as it moves well south of Guam. Low-level center is very poor and despite the convective activity persisting for quite a while, the system isn't really exhibiting any substantial improvement. In fact, JTWC is no longer expecting a development out of 93W.

Despite the lack of improvements today, some computer models are still showing some strengthening over the next few days. Invest 93W still has about 3 days over water before moving into the Philippines so the possibility of this disturbance become a cyclone is still there. Either way, the threat of some widespread rains as we move into Monday and Tuesday exists.
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Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 122212

Tropical Update

Invest 93W continues to slowly consolidate as it moves westward across the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, a weak monsoon trough is bringing scattered rains across Visayas and Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W was last located approximately 500km south southeast of Guam. Convective activity continues to persist but has not really improved over the past 36 hours. The low-level circulation center remains weak as well. Wind shear in the region has weakened slightly which may help 93W develop further.

Computer models also continue to show weak development in the next 3 days so there is still some support. JTWC is keeping "LOW" rating for 93W. For now, expect the disturbance to continue moving westward, possibly becoming a depression by Sunday. The current atmospheric conditions will take 93W towards the Philippines by either Monday or Tuesday. If the system manages to develop soon, we could a Tropical Storm by landfall. Please note that this is still largely uncertain as 93W hasn't even developed into a cyclone yet.

Meanwhile, scattered rains have been affecting Visayas and Mindanao for the past two days. While the rains are sporadic, some areas could see up to 50mm of rain so the possibility of landslides and flash floods exists.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 122212

Tropical Update

Invest 93W continues to consolidate as it moves westward across the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, an inverted trough is bringing scattered to widespread rains across Mindanao, impacting the regions devastated by Bopha.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W continues to move across the Micronesian Islands and is now located southwest of Pohnpei. The system is showing signs of some improvement with persistent convective activity and improving low-level circulation center. Wind shear in the region has increased a bit which may delay development but overall, 93W could still become a cyclone in the next 3 to 5 days. Computer models are still showing this scenario and while exact track is still too early to pinpoint, there is a chance of the Philippines being impacted by this developing disturbance one way or another.

As for Mindanao, an inverted trough is bringing rain showers and even some thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will not be too heavy. However, sudden downpours may trigger isolated flashfloods and landslides.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 122012

Tropical Update

Invest 93W continues to slowly develop as it moves westward across the Pacific. The system remains largely disorganized with pulsating convective activity. There is a low-level circulation center but the winds are currently very light. The region has seen a slight increase in wind shear which may delay development for another one to two days.

Computer models are still showing the possibility of a cyclone development in this region over the next 3 to 5 days. Once it does develop, 93W will continue moving westward and could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday. Exact track and intensity are still unknown at this time.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Meanwhile the Trade Winds are bringing scattered rain showers from Palau all the way into Eastern Mindanao. Expect light rains from time to time. The rest of the Philippines will have clear weather, especially to the north courtesy of the NE Monsoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 121912

Tropical Update

The Western Pacific Basin is currently quiet and free from Tropical Cyclones. However, a developing disturbance could eventually become a cyclone. Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon remains weak across Northern Luzon while the Easterlies are bringing scattered rains across Visayas and Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W has been spotted near the Marshall Islands--a few thousand kilometers east of the Philippines. The disturbance is still pretty disorganized and is still in the early stages of development. We are watching this system closely because a number of computer models have been suggesting a cyclone development in the Pacific for at least 2 days now. If a system does form, there's some possibility of it impacting the Philippines by next week.

While we are in December and we don't really see a lot of tropical cyclone by this time, the region is still conducive for these systems to form. In the case of 93W, there's light to moderate wind shear and sea temperatures are warm enough. But since it's still disorganized, we're not expecting it to become a depression for the next 3 days.

As for the Philippines, the Northeast Monsoon hasn't been that strong these past few days. Much of the cold air is still locked across Northern Asia and there's no sign of any significant cooldown until perhaps near Christmas. On the other hand, the Easterlies continue to bring scattered light to moderate rains across Visayas and Mindanao. Some areas such as Samar and Leyte could see up to 50mm over the next two days. Some rains could also move across the areas impacted by Bopha.

Finally, latest updates that we have gotten indicate that the death toll from Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) has risen to more than 1040 while the estimated damage has ballooned to more than P24 billion. Unfortunately, hundreds are still missing and we expect the death toll, as well as the economic damage, to rise even further.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
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Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 121812

TD Bopha (Pablo) Update #29 (w/ Video) [FINAL]

NOTE: Here is our latest and final Video Update on Bopha.

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Text Update

Tropical Depression Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is now finally dissipating just west of Luzon. The remnant circulation was last located approximately 100km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 35kph with gusts of up to 55kph. Bopha is moving eastward at around 5kph.

All Public Storm Warning Signals have now been lowered by PAGASA.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image showing very little convective activity associated with Bopha. The remnant circulation is still intact, though, but is hard to discern on the image above. The proximity of Bopha's remnants is resulting to some light rains and breezy condition in Northern Luzon. In fact, Laoag is still reporting winds of up to 40kph. Parts of Ilocos Norte and Apayao are also reporting light rains this afternoon. Rains and winds could continue throughout the night but shouldn't really be that significant. Expect much better conditions overall by tomorrow as Bopha's remnants will be fully absorbed by the frontal boundary north of the Philippines.

All weather agencies have now issued their respective final warnings for Bopha. Hopefully, this will be our last cyclone of this year. No signs of tropical threat over the next few days. However, there will still be some isolated showers and thunderstorms that could pop up across the country. The northeast monsoon (Amihan) could also bring some light rains across Luzon over the next few days.

This will be our final update on Bopha (Pablo). We'll still have Tropical Updates every now and then.
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Issued (11 UTC) 7pm PhT 120912

Tropical Storm Bopha (Pablo) Update #28

Tropical Storm Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is rapidly weakening over the South China Sea. The storm was last located approximately 120km west of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 85kph with gusts of up to 100kph. Bopha is moving east northeastward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has kept Public Storm Warning Signals over the following provinces:
Signal #2: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union

Signal #1: Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Batanes Group of Islands, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Mt. Province, Benguet, and Pangasinan.

IR Image from NRLMRY

The combination of high vertical wind shear and dry air has led to the rapid weakening of Bopha last night. As of right now, the low-level center is partially exposed with very little convective activity near the center. In fact, rain hasn't really been a problem for Luzon. There were occasional rains reported last night across Ilocos but they never accumulated into anything significant, thankfully. Laoag and parts of Apayao only got around 10 to 20mm of rain.

Bopha will continue weakening today and could even dissipate later this afternoon. It's low-level center is still intact though and that could still be dangerous for fishermen in the region. Occasional rains are also still a possibility for Ilocos Norte, particularly along the northwestern side of the province. Aside from that, we are not expecting any significant impacts from this storm anymore. Nevertheless, remain alert and continue to check here (more importantly, PAGASA) for the latest on Bopha/Pablo. We'll have another update later this afternoon.
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Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 120912

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) Update #27 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our Video Update on Typhoon Bopha. Please scroll down below for our in-depth Text Update along with our own Forecast Track.

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Text Update

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) continues to slowly weaken as it moves closer to Northern Luzon. The system was last located approximately 180km west of Vigan City, 200km southwest of Laoag City, or about 260km northwest of Dagupan City. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Bopha is moving east northeastward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued the following Public Storm Warning Signals to these provinces:
Signal#2: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union

Signal #1: Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Batanes Group of Islands, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Mt. Province, Benguet, Pangasinan, and Zambales

These provinces should expect stormy conditions to impact their area beginning tomorrow. Strong winds and light to moderate rains are possible. Please be on high alert and if you live in hazardous areas, we suggest to coordinate with your local officials and continue to monitor the radio or tv for the latest warnings and developments.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the clouds of Bopha moving nearer to Luzon. The system, as a whole, looks very asymmetrical as it feels the strong upper-level winds. Rain bands could begin to impact Ilocos Regions by tonight and into tomorrow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

There are still huge uncertainties with the forecast track as we are still unsure whether Bopha will actually make landfall. PAGASA is forecasting a landfall in Ilocos Norte tomorrow. Meanwhile, JMA and JTWC are forecasting a loop-moving near Ilocos first tomorrow, and then quickly turning southwestward away from Luzon. Whatever scenario actually happens, the possibility of heavy rains are increasing, along with strong winds particularly along the coast. Again, if you are under a Signal Warning you need to be on high alert.

For our own Forecast Track, we have decided to go in the middle. We are expecting this system to continue moving eastward and perhaps turn southwestward, eventually making landfall in Ilocos Sur by tomorrow. It will be rapidly weakening as strong shear and dry air will disrupt the system. However, if it becomes a Tropical Storm, it can still bring heavy rains across Northern Luzon, especially in mountainous areas, increasing the likelihood of flooding and landslides--hopefully it won't be as bad as what Mindanao experienced 3 days ago.

We'll have an important update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!
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Issued (1130 UTC) 730pm PhT 120812