Friday, December 21, 2012

Tropical Update

Invest 93W continues to slowly consolidate as it moves westward across the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, a weak monsoon trough is bringing scattered rains across Visayas and Mindanao.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Invest 93W was last located approximately 500km south southeast of Guam. Convective activity continues to persist but has not really improved over the past 36 hours. The low-level circulation center remains weak as well. Wind shear in the region has weakened slightly which may help 93W develop further.

Computer models also continue to show weak development in the next 3 days so there is still some support. JTWC is keeping "LOW" rating for 93W. For now, expect the disturbance to continue moving westward, possibly becoming a depression by Sunday. The current atmospheric conditions will take 93W towards the Philippines by either Monday or Tuesday. If the system manages to develop soon, we could a Tropical Storm by landfall. Please note that this is still largely uncertain as 93W hasn't even developed into a cyclone yet.

Meanwhile, scattered rains have been affecting Visayas and Mindanao for the past two days. While the rains are sporadic, some areas could see up to 50mm of rain so the possibility of landslides and flash floods exists.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 122212

No comments:

Post a Comment