Tropical Storm Dolphin Update #10 (FINAL)

Issued (14 UTC) 10pm PhT 052015
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Tropical Storm Dolphin is now transitioning into an extra-tropical cyclone as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 850km east of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Dolphin is moving north northeastward at 60kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Dolphin is becoming harder to discern on satellite. Latest image above shows the system becoming more elongated and with convection diminishing in coverage and intensity. The circulation center is starting to unravel and the system as a whole is losing tropical characteristics.

Tropical Storm Dolphin will continue moving northeastward across the Northern Pacific and should eventually become an extra-tropical cyclone. This will be our final update on Dolphin. The rest of the Western Pacific is free from tropical cyclones and we are not seeing any potential development in the next few days.

Typhoon Dolphin Update #9

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 051815
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Typhoon Dolphin continues to weaken as it moves farther north across the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 530km southwest of Iwo To (Iwo Jima) Island. Maximum sustained winds are down to 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Dolphin is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Dolphin becoming more asymmetrical this morning with the eye becoming more ragged and convective activity weakening. Dolphin is starting to encounter increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air. It will continue weakening as it moves farther to the north.

Typhoon Dolphin is forecast to move near Iwo To by early Tuesday morning. The island is largely uninhabited except for an airbase. Typhoon-force winds, heavy rains, and high waves are possible here. Dolphin will continue moving northeastward and could also affect the rest of the Ogasawara Islands, including Chichijima which is home to nearly 2000 people. By Wednesday evening, Dolphin is forecast to complete extra-tropical transition and will continue moving across the North Pacific.

We'll have another update later today.

Super Typhoon Dolphin Update #8

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 051715
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Super Typhoon Dolphin is beginning to show signs of weakening after peaking earlier this morning. The eye of Dolphin was last located approximately 760km northwest of Guam or about 800km south southwest of Iwo To (Iwo Jima) in the Ogasawara Islands of Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph making Dolphin a Category 4 Super Typhoon. Dolphin is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Dolphin rapidly intensified into a Category 5 Super Typhoon this morning but has since weakened as it starts to move into unfavorable region of the Pacific. The eye is still present but is beginning to be ragged. Furthermore, convective activity has also weakened and is becoming more asymmetrical. Dolphin should continue this slow weakening trend as it moves further north.

Super Typhoon Dolphin is now rounding the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. It will continue turning to the north and eventually to the northeast. It is forecast to move near the Ogasawara Islands of Japan by Tuesday, bringing winds, rains, and high waves across the region. Dolphin is forecast to eventually become an extra-tropical cyclone by Thursday as it moves across the North Pacific.

We'll have another update later today.

Typhoon Dolphin Update #7

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 051615
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Typhoon Dolphin has rapidly intensified this morning as it pulls away from the Northern Mariana Islands. The eye of Typhoon Dolphin was last located approximately 420km northwest of Guam or about 440km east of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph making Dolphin a Category 4 Typhoon. It is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has dropped all Typhoon Warnings in the Mariana Islands. However, a High Surf Advisory is still in effect in the region as the large circulation from Typhoon Dolphin is still bringing rough sea conditions in the area.

For the latest Official Weather Warnings and Forecasts from NWS, please click HERE

VIS Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the impressive structure of Typhoon Dolphin. An eye is well visible and convective activity surrounding the center is also looking strong and organized. Dolphin is expected to intensify even more in the next 24 to 48 hours as outflow channels will remain favorable as well as the sea surface temperatures in the area.

NWS Forecast Track

Thankfully, Typhoon Dolphin is not expected to affect any land areas in the near term. Latest forecast track from the National Weather Service shows Dolphin curving north and moving northeastward across the Pacific. However, it may impact Iwo To (Iwo Jima) and the rest of the Ogasawara Islands (home to nearly 4000 people) early next week. It is still too early to pinpoint the exact impacts for the islands. However, expect strong winds, high surf, and light to moderate rains to impact the archipelago by Monday and into Tuesday.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Dolphin Update #6

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 051515
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Typhoon Dolphin is now moving across the Mariana Islands bringing dangerous weather conditions in the region. The center of Dolphin was last located passing between the islands of Guam and Rota; approximately 50km north northeast of Guam or about 170km southwest of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Dolphin is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning fro Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. Typhoon-force winds are expected to last in the region through 10pm this evening (local time). However, tropical storm conditions with heavy rains and high waves will last through early morning hours of Saturday. Please click HERE for the latest warnings and forecasts from the NWS

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image highlights the location of Typhoon Dolphin in relation to the Mariana Islands. The system never quite got its act together and remained weaker than our initial forecasts, thankfully. However, Typhoon Dolphin is still pretty dangerous and is still bringing strong winds in and around Guam. In fact, Andersen Air Force Base (northern side of the island) just reported winds of up to 106mph (170kph). Saipan is seeing lower wind speeds as the eye of Dolphin is actually moving more westerly, and will be moving very close to Guam in the next hour.

Radar Image from NWS

 
Latest radar image out of Guam shows the eye of Dolphin moving near the islands of Guam and Rota. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall where intense winds and rains are located. The eyewall is currently moving across the northern portion of Guam and we expect the area to be getting raked at this moment. Unfortunately, the Guam weather radar is now down possibly due to the typhoon. We await further updates from the NWS.

Typhoon Dolphin will quickly move through the region tonight. As mentioned before, expect typhoon-force conditions to eventually end later this evening. Tropical-storm force conditions will last through early morning hours of Saturday. Overall weather conditions should, then, gradually improve tomorrow afternoon. Typhoon Dolphin will be moving northwesterly across the Philippine Sea and eventually turn more to the north by early next week.

We'll have another update in the morning. Stay safe!

Typhoon Dolphin Update #5

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 051515
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Typhoon Dolphin has slightly weakened this morning as it moves closer to the Northern Mariana Islands. The center of Typhoon Dolphin was last located approximately 720km southeast of Saipan or about 740km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Dolphin is currently moving west northwestward at a speed of 20kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Warning for Guam and Rota while a Typhoon Watch is issued for Saipan and Tinian. Residents are advised to complete their preparations for the incoming typhoon. Always consult with your local emergency management officials and the NWS for the latest official weather forecasts and warnings.

Click HERE for the NWS Guam Website

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convection has slightly waned, especially around the center of circulation. Dolphin is currently sorting out structural issues with the inner eyewall collapsing and a possible new and larger eyewall forming. We expect Dolphin to re-intensify this evening and could still reach Category 3 intensity before it moves near the Mariana Islands tomorrow.

Official Forecast from NWS-Guam

Above is the official forecast track from the National Weather Service. Their current forecast track is showing Dolphin moving between Rota and Guam by midday on Friday (local time). Typhoon-force winds of up to 130mph (210kph) are possible although the exact wind impacts are still uncertain. Slight shifts in the track can alter which islands will get the strongest winds. Aside from the winds, heavy rains and high surf should also be expected to dominate the weather tomorrow.

Dolphin will start moving away from the Marianas tomorrow evening and weather conditions should improve by Saturday.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

Typhoon Dolphin Update #4

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 051315
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Dophin (07W) has rapidly intensified this morning and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The eye of Typhoon Dolphin was last located approximately 460km northwest of Pohnpei or about 1,240km east southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Dolphin is moving westward at 10kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Typhoon Watch for Guam and Rota. The agency is advising people of the potential for typhoon-force winds within the next 48 hours. Residents are advised to start preparing for the incoming typhoon and should start stocking up on supplies, food, and water. Please consult with your local officials for the latest warnings for your area.

For the latest weather warnings and forecasts from the National Weather Service, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a very small eye has appeared surrounded by increasingly robust convective activity. Dolphin is intensifying at a quicker pace now that it is moving in an area that is more conducive for tropical cyclone development. Dolphin is expected to intensify even further in the next 2 to 3 days.

Based on the current forecast tracks from different agencies, along with the latest computer model outputs, Typhoon Dolphin is expected to move generally west northwestward in the next 2 to 3 days. The chances of Guam and parts of the Mariana Islands seeing at least tropical storm-force conditions are also increasing. Expect stormy conditions to start affecting Guam and nearby islands by Friday morning and lasting into the evening hours. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves are possible in the region in the coming days.

We'll have another update later tonight.