tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-70292641990135975552024-02-01T19:00:47.116-08:00SA GITNA NG BAGYOPhilippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.comBlogger1747125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-64499139057021306182016-12-26T18:01:00.003-08:002016-12-26T18:01:48.688-08:00Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Nina) Update #5Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 122716<br />
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Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) is now moving away from the Philippines after leaving a trail of destruction in the islands. The storm center was last located approximately 500km west of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Nock-ten is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.<br />
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All Public Storm Warning Signals in the Philippines have been dropped by PAGASA. At least 6 people are confirmed dead in the Philippines due to the typhoon. Furthermore, 3 provinces have been placed under a State of Calamity due to the widespread damage brought by Nina (Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Albay).<br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Latest satellite image shows convective activity is still going strong as Tropical Storm Nock-ten moves across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). However, the core definitely took a hit as it crossed the Philippine Islands yesterday. We expect continued weakening from here on out due to cold air surge from North Asia, as well as increasing wind shear in the region.<br />
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Nock-ten (Nina) should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility with the country having much improved weather over the next few days.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-65562484819000843022016-12-25T14:13:00.002-08:002016-12-25T14:13:34.462-08:00Typhoon Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) Update #4Issued (2130 UTC) 530am PhT 122616<br />
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Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) has slightly weakened after making landfall in the island-province of Catanduanes early last night. The core is currently traversing the island of Marinduque with the center being last located approximately 100km east southeast of Batangas City or about 170km southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have slightly decreased to 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Nock-ten is currently moving westward at 20kph.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Camarines Sur, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Northern Oriental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Cavite, and Laguna.</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">Signal #2 for Metro Manila, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Southern Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Northern Occidental Mindoro, Burias Island, Camarines Norte, and Albay.</span></b><br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">Signal #1 for rest of Occidental Mindoro, Ticao Island, rest of Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Southern Aurora, Pangasinan, Sorsogon, and Catanduanes.</span></b><br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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The pinhole eye that was visible yesterday has become cloud filled, indicative of weakening, as Typhoon Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) traverses the terrain of Southern Luzon and Bicol areas. Nevertheless, the winds near the core are still estimated to be around 160kph or higher; enough to cause significant damage to properties. We should see continued weakening throughout the day due to land interaction but dangerous stormy conditions will still persist for much of the areas along Nock-ten's projected path.<br />
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Radar Image from PAGASA<br />
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Latest radar image out of Tagaytay station shows the center of Bagyong Nina moving through the island of Marinduque. Rain bands associated with the storm are also affecting large areas in Southern Luzon including Batangas, Laguna, and Quezon; as well as the island of Mindoro. Many areas in Bicol have reported rainfall accumulations of anywhere from 50mm to as much as 150mm. Expect the same rainfall amounts for areas west.<br />
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Forecast Track from JMA<br />
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Latest forecast track from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows Typhoon Nock-ten moving generally westward. The center of the typhoon should move very close to the city of Batangas in about 3 hours bringing dangerous strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves to the port city. The island of Mindoro will also be heavily impacted later this morning as the center passes just north of the area. The rest of Southern Luzon, including Metro Manila, should still expect tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph along with occasional bouts of moderate to heavy rains capable of causing urban flooding.<br />
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Nock-ten should begin to move into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) later this evening. Stormy conditions will likely persist across the western portions of Luzon through the evening hours. Most areas impacted by Nock-ten should see gradual improvement in the weather early tomorrow morning.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-5100162517831867162016-12-24T15:09:00.003-08:002016-12-24T15:09:51.598-08:00Super Typhoon Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) Update #3Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 122516<br />
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Super Typhoon Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) is now bearing down towards the Philippine Islands on this Christmas Day. The eye of Nock-ten was last located approximately 200km east of Virac, Catanduanes or about 560km east southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Nock-ten is currently moving westward at 15kph.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Albay, and Camarines Sur. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">Signal #2 for Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar. </span></b><br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Batangas, Nueva Ecija, Southern Nueva Vizcaya, Southern Quirino, Zambales, Pampanga, Tarlac, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Aurora, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Aklan, Capiz, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, and Bantayan Island.</span></b><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Super Typhoon Nock-ten surrounded by deep convective activity. The storm underwent a period of rapid intensification over the past 48 hours as it moved across the Philippine Sea. It will likely maintain this intensity as it makes landfall in Bicol later today.<br />
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Radar Image from PAGASA<br />
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Latest radar image from Virac, Catanduanes shows the eye of Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) along with its rain bands approaching the Bicol Region and parts of Samar. Rain will continue to spread inland, along with gusty winds. Conditions will only worsen as the day goes by.<br />
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COAMPS Rainfall 72-hr Accumulation Output (NOT OFFICIAL)<br />
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The image above is one of the many computer model depictions with 3-day rainfall accumulations. We're expecting heavy rains to be observed across much of Bicol and Southern Luzon, as well as parts of Visayas. Some areas (highlighted above) could see as much as 300mm of rainfall over the next few days.<br />
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Forecast Track from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)<br />
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Super Typhoon Nock-ten will make landfall in the island of Catanduanes later this afternoon. Winds of up to 260kph are possible, especially near the core of the typhoon. Winds will weaken further inland but will still be capable of causing destruction to properties. Nock-ten is, then, forecast to continue moving generally westward into Southern Luzon, passing just south of Manila by early tomorrow morning (Monday). By this time, we expect Nock-ten to weaken to lower-category typhoon but will still pose a significant threat for the metropolitan region.<br />
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Nock-ten will emerge into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea), as a much weakened cyclone, by late Monday evening. Stormy conditions will likely persist across the western seaboard of Luzon during this time. Improving weather is expected by Tuesday morning across the entire area.<br />
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The image above is taken from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The track is in pretty good agreement with other weather agencies in the region (i.e. PAGASA, JTWC).Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-19781296497175045702016-12-22T21:29:00.003-08:002016-12-22T21:30:11.374-08:00Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Nina) Update #2Issued (05 UTC) 01pm PhT 122316<br />
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A Christmas-Day cyclone is threatening the Philippine Islands and could even intensify into a typhoon before landfall. Tropical Storm Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 620km east northeast of Tacloban, Leyte. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Nock-ten is moving west northwestward at 25kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows Tropical Storm Nock-ten becoming much better organized this morning. A central dense overcast has developed along with good poleward outflow. Environmental conditions have improved as well and will likely result in further intensification for Nock-ten in the next 24 to 48 hours. Depending on the rate of intensification, Nock-ten may become a typhoon later this evening, and possibly peak as a Category 3 Typhoon before coming ashore in the Philippines.<br />
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Forecast Track from JTWC (NOT OFFICIAL!)<br />
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Computer models and numerous forecast agencies are in excellent agreement over the track of Tropical Storm Nock-ten. The map above shows the forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center showing Nock-ten (Bagyong Nina) moving in a west northwesterly direction. A landfall somewhere in the Bicol Region is possibly by Sunday morning (Christmas Day). However, impacts will be felt as far south as Eastern and Central Visayas; and as far north as Southern and Central Luzon.<br />
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Metro Manila and nearby areas may also see typhoon-force conditions Sunday into Monday. Due to the timing of the impacts, Nock-ten is a potentially dangerous storm and should be seriously monitored in the coming days. If you are in the projected path of the storm, please consider starting any preparations today and tomorrow.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-46530383735550916132016-12-21T09:41:00.001-08:002016-12-21T09:41:30.905-08:00Tropical Depression 30W Update #1Issued (1730 UTC) 0130am PhT 122216<br />
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The 2016 Typhoon Season is coming to a close but the tropics may be giving us one more storm to track. A Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific Ocean tonight and may pose a threat to the Philippine Islands this Christmas.<br />
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Tropical Depression 30W was last located approximately 380km southeast of Yap or about 680km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 30W is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows convection continuing to slowly build over the low-level circulation center. Convective activity ahead of the circulation is also beginning to move into Yap this evening. Rain and gusty winds will prevail in that area, together with Palau, for the next 24 hours. TD 30W is located in an area of marginally favorable environment and we should see the system slowly develop in the coming days.<br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Tropical Depression 30W will continue moving generally west northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Numerous computer models are in generally good agreement with bringing TD 30W towards the Philippine Islands as early as Saturday morning (December 24). However, the said models still vary as to how strong TD 30W when it does impact the Philippines.<br />
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While it is still too early to tell exactly which areas will be directly impacted by TD 30W, we urge everyone especially across Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon to closely monitor the developments of this tropical system.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-39191426361123951672016-10-15T23:45:00.002-07:002016-10-15T23:45:47.585-07:00Tropical Storm Haima Update #1Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 101616<br />
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Tropical Storm Haima continues to intensify as it moves into the Philippine Sea today. The storm center was last located approximately 700km southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Haima is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.<br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the wide expanse of Tropical Storm Haima (compared to Typhoon Sarika 'Bagyong Karen' which is now exiting the Philippine island of Luzon) with a deepening central convection and excellent radial outflow. The system is currently moving into a very favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and light to moderate wind shear. Further intensification is a given, with typhoon intensity likely being reached later this evening.<br />
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Tropical Storm Haima poses is a significant threat to the Philippine Islands later this week. Current forecast guidance suggests a continued movement to the west northwestward direction with the track possibly bringing the storm towards Luzon in the next few days. Rapid intensification is also possible with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center currently forecasting Haima to become a Category 5 Super Typhoon before it impacts the Philippines.<br />
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As Typhoon Sarika (Bagyong Karen) moves out of the Philippines, all eyes should turn towards Haima as it could very much pose a dangerous threat to the country.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-9080782208775456552016-09-18T21:47:00.002-07:002016-09-18T21:47:49.814-07:00Typhoon Malakas Update #2Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 091916<br />
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Typhoon Malakas is now heading towards Mainland Japan and is currently forecast to make landfall in the island of Kyushu later this evening. The eye of Malakas was last located approximately 300km southwest of the city of Kagoshima. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Malakas is currently moving northeastward at northeast at 20kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Aided by good upper-level environment across Eastern China, Typhoon Malakas was able to regain some intensity in the past 36 hours. Latest satellite image shows a cloud-free eye surrounded by strong convective activity as well as a near symmetrical appearance along with excellent poleward outflow. It is forecast to retain its Category 3 intensity before rapidly weakening as it crosses the Japanese Islands.<br />
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Radar Image from JMA<br />
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Latest radar image from Japan shows the eye getting closer to the island of Kyushu. Outer rain bands have begun to make their way towards the region with heavier rains about to move inland in a few hours. Due to steady northeastward movement of Malakas, rainfall accumulations won't be as high as that seen in parts of Taiwan and Southeastern China with Typhoon Meranti. Nevertheless, we are still expecting rainfall amounts of anywhere from 100 to as much as 300mm. Some mountainous areas in Kyushu, Shikoku, and Western Honshu, may receive upwards of up to 500mm in the next 2 days.<br />
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For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click <a href="http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html">HERE</a> (JMA) <br />
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Typhoon Malakas is forecast to make landfall in the prefecture of Kagoshima in Kyushu Island later this evening. It will then track northeastward brushing the island of Shikoku by tomorrow and then onwards towards Southern Honshu. Malakas is also forecast to rapidly weaken as upper-level environment becomes hostile for tropical cyclones. Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-9904453630270715532016-09-16T23:20:00.003-07:002016-09-16T23:20:36.534-07:00Typhoon Malakas Update #1Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 091716<br />
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Typhoon Malakas (Formerly Bagyong Gener) is currently moving through the East China Sea affecting parts of Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 130km east northeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 500km west southwest of Naha, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph making Malakas a Category 3 Typhoon in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Typhoon Malakas is moving northward at 15kph.<br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the eye has become clouded once again and the overall circulation has degraded over the past 12 hours. This is most likely due to the interaction with the topography of Taiwan as well as a slight increase in wind shear in the area. Despite the "weakening", Typhoon Malakas managed to bring some very strong winds across the Yaeyema Islands of Japan. Latest data showed some of the islands received wind gusts of up to 220kph as the eyewall moved through the area earlier this morning.<br />
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Radar Image from CWB<br />
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As with any tropical cyclone, rain is a major threat along with strong winds. Latest radar image from Taiwan shows the bulk of the heavy rains associated with Malakas are over water. Outer rain bands are still impacting Northern and Central Taiwan, including the city of Taipei. Rains should slowly move northward, along with the system, over the next 12 hours and rainfall accumulations are not going to be as high as when Meranti hit Taiwan less than a week ago.<br />
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For the latest radar image out of Taiwan, please click <a href="http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/">HERE</a> (CWB Taiwan) <br />
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Typhoon Malakas is forecast to turn to the northeast and possibly retain its intensity as it makes its way towards Mainland Japan. Current forecast consensus is taking Malakas towards the island of Kyushu as early as Tuesday morning. If we don't see any significant weakening until then, we may see a Category 1 make landfall in the said island.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-12920074660518786562016-09-14T23:21:00.000-07:002016-09-14T23:21:07.805-07:00Tropical Storm Meranti Update #4 (FINAL)Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PhT 091516<br />
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Tropical Storm Meranti continues to weaken as it moves further inland across Southern China. The storm's center was last located approximately 120km northwest of Xiamen. Maximum sustained winds are down to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Meranti is currently moving north northwest at 20kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows what once was a Super Typhoon, gradually dissipating over Fujian Province in China. Meranti made landfall earlier this morning as a Category 3 typhoon just east of Xiamen City. Wind gusts of up to 180kph were recorded in some places, along with continuous heavy rains.<br />
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Tropical Storm Meranti will continue weakening as it moves over land but will also continue bringing rains across much of Southeastern China for the next 24 to 48 hours. Rainfall accumulations of 200mm or more are still possible across Fujian, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang Provinces over the next few days.<br />
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This will be our final update on Tropical Storm Meranti.<br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Meanwhile, the other Tropical System we've been watching continues to march through the Philippine Sea today. Typhoon Malakas (Bagyong Gener) was last located approximately 730km east of Aparri. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. The system is moving northwestward at 20kph.<br />
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Typhoon Malakas is not forecast to directly impact the Philippines as it is forecast to curve more to the northwest possibly towards Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands.<br />
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We'll have a more in-depth update on Malakas in a separate post. Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-14733743174471283162016-09-13T22:36:00.000-07:002016-09-13T22:36:02.242-07:00Super Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #3Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 091416<br />
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After crossing Luzon Strait and directly passing over Itbayat Island last night, Super Typhoon Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) is now impacting parts of Southern Taiwan. The eye of Meranti was last located approximately 50km south southwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan or about 260km northwest of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Meranti is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>While Meranti (Ferdie) has technically left the Philippine Area of Responsibility as of 12pm today, Public Storm Warning Signal #2 remains in effect for Batanes Group of Islands and Signal #1 for Babuyan Group of Islands. This is for tropical storm conditions that may still affect the said regions. Preliminary reports out of Batanes indicate no "untoward incidents" as per the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines. However, we will continue to update as we get new info.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows Meranti beginning to feel the effects of Taiwan's topography. The eye has become clouded and the central dense overcast has also weakened and disrupted. Nevertheless, Meranti remains a powerful and dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon. In fact, parts of Southern Taiwan are reporting wind gusts in excess of 160kph. Stormy conditions will prevail across the area for the next 12 to 18 hours.<br />
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Radar Image from Central Weather Bureau (Taiwan)<br />
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Aside from the strong winds and storm surge threat, heavy rains have also spread across Taiwan as can be seen from the weather radar image above. The eye of Meranti is still intact as well, skirting just to the west of Kaohsiung City. Rainfall amounts of 200 to 400mm are possible across Taiwan with higher amounts of up to 600mm possible in the mountainous areas, over the next 48 hours. Landslides and flash floods are going to be the highest threat from this extreme rainfall event.<br />
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For the latest Radar Images and weather observations out of Taiwan, please click <a href="http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/">HERE</a> (CWB) <br />
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Meranti should continue to weaken as it heads northwestward, as its circulation gets disrupted by Taiwan's and Southern China's topography. Despite the weakening, we still expect Meranti to maintain Typhoon intensity as it makes landfall in the Guangdong-Fujian Province area by Thursday morning. The city of Xiamen, home to 3 million people, is at risk for dangerous stormy conditions in the next 24 hours; along with the rest of Southeastern China. High winds, storm surge, and widespread heavy rains will likely threaten the region.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-67376480083070461492016-09-12T20:21:00.003-07:002016-09-12T20:21:47.902-07:00Super Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #2Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT<br />
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Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) has intensified even further and is now a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It has also become the strongest typhoon in 2016 so far. The eye of Meranti was last located approximately 330km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 680km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 295kph with gusts reaching up to 360kph. STY Meranti is currently moving west northwestward at a speed of 20kph.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #4 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #3 has been issued for Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #2 for Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and Northern Cagayan; while Signal #1 is for the Rest of Cagayan, Northern Isabela, Kalinga, and Northern Ilocos Sur.</span></b><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the well-defined pinhole eye of Meranti surrounded by very strong convective activity. Outer rain bands can also be seen nearing parts of Northern Luzon and small islands to the north. This morning's trend has shown intensification leveling off. Nevertheless, Meranti is still packing really dangerous winds and unfortunately, Batanes Islands and extreme Southern Taiwan may get impacted within the next 24 hours.<br />
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The biggest change in the forecast consensus is the shift to the south for the track. We are no longer expecting Meranti to make landfall in Taiwan, but rather continue moving west northwestward possibly towards Southern China. However, very strong winds and heavy rainfall are still possible for Southern Taiwan and Northern Philippines. In particular, Batanes and the town of Basco could get hit with winds of greater than 200kph along with heavy rains and storm surge of up to 2 meters.<br />
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COAMPS 72-hr Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL)<br />
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The image above depicts possible rainfall accumulation over the next 72 hours with the heaviest rainfall across Taiwan where areas may receive as much as 400mm. Parts of Batanes and Babuyan Islands are also forecast to receive high rainfall accumulations. Some rain bands may also make their way down towards Northern Luzon bringing occasional rains in the region.<br />
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Super Typhoon Meranti is forecast to continue heading west northwestward, slowly losing strength as it crosses into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Current projections show Meranti possibly making landfall in the province of Guangdong in Southern China by early Thursday morning.<br />
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We'll have another update later today.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-55954715049918592352016-09-11T17:47:00.000-07:002016-09-11T17:47:02.103-07:00Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie) Update #1Issued (0030z) 830am PhT 091216<br />
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A new Tropical Cyclone has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Typhoon Meranti (Bagyong Ferdie) is currently moving across the Philippine Sea, rapidly intensifying from a mere Tropical Storm yesterday to a Category 3 Typhoon this morning. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 1,060km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Meranti is currently moving westward at 25kph.<br />
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<b><span style="color: red;">As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Babuyan and Batanes Group of Islands.</span></b><br />
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VIS Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Meranti with a pinhole eye that is starting to become more prominent by the hour. The system is currently moving through excellent environmental conditions in the Philippine Sea with weak wind shear, high ocean heat content, and excellent outflow. We expect Meranti to continue intensifying for another 36 hours, possibly becoming a Super Typhoon.<br />
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Current forecasts call for Meranti to continue moving generally west northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Some computer models are still split, however, as to the eventual track of this typhoon. One camp takes Meranti towards Southern Taiwan while the other takes it farther west into Southern China.<br />
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As for immediate impacts, Meranti will start to affect extreme Northern Philippines (mainly the islands north of Luzon) as early as Tuesday morning. Parts of Southern Taiwan will also feel the impacts of Meranti by then. Afterwards, there is still uncertainty as to where it will make landfall.<br />
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We'll have another update later today.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-59249995722337922672016-07-07T03:21:00.004-07:002016-07-07T03:24:15.430-07:00Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) Update #5Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070716<br />
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Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) is now nearing landfall in Southern Taiwan. The eye of Nepartak was last located approximately 200km northeast of Basco, Batanes or about 370km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Nepartak has slightly weakened with maximum sustained winds of around 270kph with gusts of up to 325kph. STY Nepartak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #2 for Batanes Group of Islands and Signal #1 for Babuyan Group of Islands. Winds of 60-100kph should be expected in these islands, along with the threat of moderate to heavy rains and high waves.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows Super Typhoon Nepartak nearing Taiwan. The eye has slightly increased in diameter due to an eyewall replacement cycle that occurred this morning. The successful of the ERC has limited the weakening normally associated with this event. As of this time, Nepartak remains a very powerful and potentially destructive typhoon.<br />
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CWB-Taiwan Radar Image<br />
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Latest radar image out of Taiwan, courtesy of the Central Weather Bureau, shows the near-perfect eye of Nepartak surrounded by heavy rainfall. The inner rain bands are soon to impact the eastern coast with more rainfall eventually overspreading the region as the night goes on. Rainfall amounts of up to 600mm are possible, especially across mountainous areas. Even parts of Batanes and Babuyan Islands will experience periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at times, eventually tapering off tomorrow morning.<br />
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For the latest radar image and Taiwan weather forecasts, please click <a href="http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/">HERE</a> (CWB Taiwan)<br />
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Super Typhoon Nepartak is forecast to make landfall in Southern Taiwan, along Taitung County, later this evening. Winds in excess of 200kph are possible especially in exposed areas near the coast. Along with destructive winds, we are also expecting high waves and very heavy rainfall. Nepartak will rapidly weaken as it crosses the Taiwan Region. However, it is forecast to retain typhoon intensity and possibly make a second landfall, this time in Fujian Province of Southeastern China. Heavy rains and strong winds are also forecast for Fujian and nearby provinces beginning later tonight and lasting through tomorrow.<br />
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Please stay safe and always heed the warnings of your local officials!Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-77837577442936169302016-07-06T03:02:00.001-07:002016-07-06T03:02:26.832-07:00Super Typhoon Nepartak (Butchoy) Update #4Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 070616<br />
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Super Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) continues to intensify as it nears Taiwan. The eye of Nepartak was last located approximately 580km east of Basco, Batanes or about 840km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 280kph with gusts of up to 335kph. STY Nepartak is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Winds of up to 60kph, moderate wave heights, and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected to occur within the next 36 hours.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from FNMOC<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the menacing Super Typhoon Nepartak with its pinhole eye surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. The image above also shows the excellent poleward outflow together with the spiral bands associated with the typhoon. We have also highlighted the enhanced southwesterly flow bringing widespread rains across the Philippines. Nepartak will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing rains across the archipelago over the next 2 days or so.<br />
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JTWC Forecast Track <br />
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Super Typhoon Nepartak will continue moving northwestward and could still possible intensify over the next 24 hours. It may very well make landfall in Taiwan tomorrow afternoon (Thursday) as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. Damaging winds in excess of 200kph, along with very heavy rainfall (possibly up to 600mm in some places), are possible especially along the eastern coast of Taiwan. The mountainous terrain of Taiwan will induce significant weakening for Nepartak but will remain a strong and damaging typhoon for at least another 12 hours after landfall. Even parts of Southeastern China will experience stormy conditions by Thursday evening and into Friday.<br />
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For our readers in this region, especially in Taiwan, please start making your preparations now (if you haven't done so) for this incoming typhoon. As always, stay safe and heed the warnings of your local official agency.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-58316546128864353332016-07-05T01:58:00.001-07:002016-07-05T01:58:27.045-07:00Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) Update #3Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 070516<br />
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Nepartak continues to intensify today and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. It has also entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has subsequently assigned the local name 'Bagyong Butchoy' by PAGASA. The center of Typhoon Nepartak was last located approximately 1,450km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 30kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows a faint eye-feature beginning to appear. The said eye feature is surrounded by deep convective activity along with good radial outflow. The eyewall has also greatly improved over the past 12 hours. Good environment conditions along the path of Nepartak will allow for further intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.<br />
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JTWC Forecast Track<br />
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The latest forecast consensus among computer models and other weather agencies along the region shows a general track to the northwest that may take Nepartak near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands by Wednesday afternoon. One such scenario is posted above, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's later Forecast Track.<br />
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Caution and initial preparations for residents living in the said region should commence at this point, especially if we see further intensification from Nepartak. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges, should always be expected for a storm with this caliber.<br />
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As for the Philippines, Typhoon Nepartak (Bagyong Butchoy) is currently not forecast to directly impact the archipelago. However, expect the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) to be enhanced by the circulation of this typhoon. Widespread rainfall across the country, particularly across Western Luzon and Visayas regions, should be expected for the rest of this week.<br />
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We'll have another update for Nepartak tomorrow morning. As always, heed the warnings from your official weather agencies and always stay safe! Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-75289735344997712932016-07-04T01:15:00.000-07:002016-07-04T01:15:06.046-07:00Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #2Issued (0730 UTC) 070416 330pm PhT<br />
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Tropical Storm Nepartak has slightly intensified as it begins to pull away from the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 420km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving northwestward at 25kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Nepartak remains a run-of-the-mill Tropical Storm based on the latest satellite imagery. Strong convective activity emanating from the circulation center continues to consolidate and grow. Some dry air intrusion have been limiting intensification so far. However, we expect Nepartak to continue intensifying over the next few days as good upper-level environment and high ocean heat content will provide conditions for further strengthening.<br />
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Forecasts for Tropical Storm Nepartak generally remains the same. We are still expecting a continued movement to the northwest over the course of the storm's lifetime. Model consensus has remained showing a possible track towards East Asia, particularly near Taiwan and the Southern Japanese Islands as we move into the latter part of the week.<br />
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And while the storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (Tuesday), and will be named Bagyong Butchoy by PAGASA, we don't expect any direct impacts from Nepartak. However, the storm will eventually enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) which will bring widespread rains across the country, particularly parts of Luzon and Visayas.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-77743047674973824842016-07-03T10:15:00.002-07:002016-07-03T10:15:41.392-07:00Tropical Storm Nepartak Update #1Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 0701416<br />
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After a quiet start to the 2016, the Western Pacific finally has its first named cyclone of the season. Tropical Storm Nepartak is consolidating near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 360km south of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Nepartak is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.<br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows convective activity beginning to consolidate near the circulation center. Banding has also improved over the past few hours. Nepartak is moving in an area of low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures which will only help the system gain strength over the coming days.<br />
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Tropical Storm Nepartak is forecast to move northeastward over the Philippine Sea and will be named Bagyong Butchoy as it enters the PAR by Tuesday morning.. As of this time, the computer model consensus does not show Nepartak directly affecting the Philippines. However, the southwest monsoon (Habagat) may be enhanced bringing higher chances of rainfall across the country.<br />
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Tropical Storm Nepartak is also forecast to continue intensifying and may reach typhoon-intensity by the middle of this week. Long-range forecasts also show Nepartak possibly affecting Eastern Asia by the end of this week.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-82067094467997669302015-12-17T20:54:00.002-08:002015-12-17T20:54:33.642-08:00Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #2 [FINAL]Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121815<br />
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) is now dissipating just east of Mindanao today. The remnant circulation was last located approximately 320km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is moving west southwestward at 20kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 11am this morning PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur including Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sur, Northern part of Davao Occidental, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao, North Cotabato, Northern part of South Cotabato, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur and Zamboanga Sibugay.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows disorganized convection associated with the remnant circulation of TD 29W continues to affect portions of Visayas and Mindanao. Bright clouds bringing heavy rains can be seen moving across Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, and Northern Mindanao. Some of these rains can bring as much as 10-20mm/hour. Total rainfall accumulations of up to 200mm may also be recorded in some spots.<br />
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) will continue dissipating as it tracks towards Mindanao. The remnant circulation is forecast to move inland later this evening with its associated convection forecast to linger across Southern Philippines over the next 24 to 48 hours.<br />
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This is our final update for Tropical Depression 29W. No other Tropical Cyclones are forecast to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com25tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-7830732244543831042015-12-17T14:57:00.004-08:002015-12-17T14:59:26.434-08:00Tropical Depression 29W (Onyok) Update #1Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121815<br />
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Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok) continues to move closer to the Philippine Islands this morning. The center of 29W was last located approximately 460km east northeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 29W is currently moving westward at 15kph.<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Surigao del Sur, Siargao Island, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, Bukidnon, Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sure, and North Cotabato.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows convection associated with TD 29W have begun to move in to parts of Visayas and Mindanao bringing widespread light to moderate rains. TD 29W itself, however, is struggling to maintain organization due to unfavorable conditions in the area. The low-level circulation center is left fully exposed and we don't expect any intensification occurring as it tracks towards Southern Philippines.<br />
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COAMPS 48-hr Rainfall Forecast (NOT OFFICIAL!)<br />
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Despite the lack of intensification, we are still expecting widespread heavy rains to affect portions of Southern Philippines. The image above shows a 48-hour forecast for rainfall accumulations and we can see areas receiving up to 200mm (if not more) of rainfall during that period. Landslides and flashfloods are possible especially in areas placed by PAGASA under Signal #1.<br />
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If you live in these areas, please consult your local officials for the latest warnings in regards to the approaching depression.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-27222402990301797332015-12-16T15:53:00.003-08:002015-12-16T15:54:02.415-08:00Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #5Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 121715<br />
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now weakening significantly over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and is now down to minimal Tropical Storm-strength. The storm center was last located approximately 140km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Melor is currently moving southwestward at 10kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Pangasinan and Zambales. All other Signal Warnings have now been lifted by the agency.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows Melor and the newly-developed Tropical Depression 29W (Bagyong Onyok). Melor is now struggling to maintain its structure as unfavorable conditions are now prevailing across the West Philippine Sea. However, we are still seeing strong convection affecting parts of Central and Northern Luzon. We expect these rain showers to continue throughout the day today.<br />
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Tropical Storm Melor will continue weakening today, eventually becoming a Depression later this afternoon. It will also continue to move southwestward away from the Philippines. Rains across Luzon should gradually taper off in the next 12 to 24 hours.<br />
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With the departure of Melor, we now have to monitor the incoming Tropical Depression Onyok. Thankfully, this system is not forecast to intensify as much as Melor did. However, it is still forecast to bring widespread rains across parts of Visayas and Mindanao in the coming days.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-15385201760199571872015-12-15T14:45:00.003-08:002015-12-15T14:45:57.953-08:00Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #4Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 121615<br />
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) has weakened to Category 1 but continues to bring widespread heavy rains across many areas in Luzon. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 100km southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 10kph.<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Northern Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island. Signal #2 for Bataan, Batangas, Cavite, Northern Oriental Mindoro, and the rest of Occidental Mindoro. Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Pampanga, Southern Zambales, Bulacan, Laguna, Calamian Islands, and the rest of Oriental Mindoro.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from NOAA<br />
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Latest satellite image shows the Typhoon Melor lingering just west of the province of Batangas. However, rain clouds are still covering much of Luzon bringing widespread moderate to heavy rains. Melor crossed the island of Mindoro last night as a Category 4 Typhoon and has since weakened. Nevertheless, we expect stormy conditions especially along the western portions of Central and Southern Luzon to continue.<br />
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is forecast to slowly weaken as a cold surge from the north will bring unfavorable conditions for this cyclone. Melor is also forecast to begin turning more to the south and will continue tracking across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Rain showers are forecast to remain across parts of Luzon and Palawan over the next 24 to 48 hours.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-79818179400037862902015-12-13T20:53:00.003-08:002015-12-13T20:54:03.301-08:00Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #3Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121415<br />
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) is now skirting the coast of Northern Samar bringing potentially dangerous winds, heavy rains, and storm surge across the region The eye of Melor was last located approximately 20km east of Catarman, Northern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 205kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving westward at 20kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Ticao Island, Burias Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>Signal #2 for Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna, Southern Quezon, and Leyte.</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><br />Signal #1 for Metro Manila, Bataan, Bulacan, Lubang Island, Coron, Cavite, Rizal, Rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Camotes Island, Aklan, Capiz, Northern Negros Occidental, Northern Iloilo, Dinagat Province, and Siargao Island.</b></span><br />
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VIS Image from RAMMB-CIRA<br />
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Latest close-up image of Typhoon Melor shows the southern eyewall moving along the coast of Northern Samar. Winds of up to 200kph are occurring around this area along with very heavy rainfall and high waves. Parts of the Bicol Region, especially Sorsogon and Legazpi, should also be experiencing rapidly deteriorating conditions this afternoon. Later this afternoon, the islands of Masbate and Ticao will be experiencing the full brunt of Melor.<br />
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IR Image from RAMMB-CIRA<br />
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Typhoon Melor (Bagyong Nona) will continue moving generally westward today. Stormy conditions will persist across Bicol and Samar/Leyte area through the evening and will slowly spread towards the west encompassing Southern Luzon and Central Visayas. Winds of up to 160kph are possible near the center of the storm and rainfall amounts of up to 300mm are likely along the path.<br />
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Typhoon Melor will linger in the Philippines through Wednesday morning before moving towards the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). We urge residents along the impacted areas to remain vigilant and to always heed the warnings from your local officials!Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-34820858124621411502015-12-12T20:55:00.002-08:002015-12-12T20:55:36.748-08:00Typhoon Melor (Nona) Update #2Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 121315<br />
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Melor (Bagyong Nona) has rapidly intensified into a Category 1 Typhoon this morning. The eye of Typhoon Melor was last located approximately 420km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph. Typhoon Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.<br />
<span style="color: red;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: red;"><b>As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat Province.</b></span><br />
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IR Image from FNMOC<br />
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Latest satellite image shows a pinhole eye that is becoming more defined by the hour. This small eye is surrounded by increasingly deep convective activity. We can also see a very robust poleward outflow on the northern half of the circulation providing good ventilation. Melor will continue to move across very favorable conditions in the Philippine Sea allowing for further intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.<br />
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Typhoon Melor will continue moving in a general west northwestward direction. As of this time, residents along the Bicol Region and Visayas area to closely monitor the developments of Melor. Based on the latest information, Melor is forecast to possibly make landfall near Samar tomorrow morning (Monday) as a strong Category 3 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong damaging winds, and storm surge will be threatening the region tomorrow.<br />
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If you are living along the eastern coasts of Bicol and Visayas, please heed the warnings of your local officials. Consider starting preparations for the impending typhoon. We'll have another update later this evening.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-63869509646966856702015-12-11T20:25:00.001-08:002015-12-11T20:25:23.590-08:00Tropical Storm Melor (Nona) Update #1Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 121215<br />
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Tropical Storm Melor (Bagyong Nona) is the latest cyclone to form in the Western Pacific this year. The system is continues to slowly consolidate as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The storm center was last located approximately 360km north northwest of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Melor is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.<br />
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IR Image from JMA<br />
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Latest satellite image shows convective banding continues to consolidate and tighten around the low-level center. Despite the relatively weak presentation on satellite, we are noticing much better organization thanks to the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and excellent radial outflow. Melor should be able to slowly intensify over the next few days as it moves across open waters.<br />
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Latest forecast model consensus, as well as the latest tracks from forecast agencies in the region, shows Tropical Storm Melor continuing its current west northwestward movement. It will also likely to continue intensifying and may even reach typhoon status later this weekend. As for the track, the consensus is showing a track possibly towards the Bicol Region or the Samar/Leyte area.<br />
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We urge residents across Eastern Luzon and Visayas to continue closely monitoring the developments of Tropical Storm Melor (Nona). Expect weather conditions to begin deteriorating by late Sunday evening across the region. If the system does make landfall in the Philippines, we expect this to happen around Tuesday morning.<br />
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We'll have another update later this evening.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7029264199013597555.post-18248949941045908132015-11-19T19:06:00.005-08:002015-11-19T19:06:58.027-08:00Typhoon In-Fa Update #3Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 112015<br />
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In-Fa has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The center of Typhoon In-Fa was last located approximately 520km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon In-Fa is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b>In anticipation of the oncoming typhoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guam. The NWS is warning for possible strong winds of up to 100kph affecting the region within the next 24 hours.</b></span><br />
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For the latest warnings from NWS, please click <a href="http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/">HERE</a><br />
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IR Image from NRLMRY<br />
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Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast has developed with a pinhole eye in the center. Strong convection continues to expand as well, being aided by excellent radial outflow and weak wind shear. In-Fa will continue to intensify and may become a Category 3 Typhoon by tomorrow.<br />
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Forecast Track from the NWS<br />
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The latest OFFICIAL Forecast Track from the National Weather Service in Guam shows Typhoon In-Fa tracking generally west northwestward over the next few days. The eye of In-Fa is forecast to pass within 300km to the south of Guam by Saturday morning. While the center will be passing far from Guam, tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph are still possible across Guam and nearby islands. Showery precipitation and high waves are also forecast to dominate the weather in the region.<br />
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Typhoon In-Fa is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday evening and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Marilyn.' However, we are not expecting In-Fa to directly impact the Philippines. It is forecast to eventually recurve to the north by Tuesday away from any land areas.<br />
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We'll have another update later this evening.Philippine Weatherhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04282783363871775091noreply@blogger.com0