Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 110714
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Tropical Storm Nuri is now moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 740km east of Tokyo, Japan with maximum winds of 85kph to 110kph. TS Nuri is moving northeastward at 50kph.
Nuri is completing extra-tropical transition and should be a full-blown mid-latitude cyclone today. It is no longer a threat to Japan. However, Nuri will become a powerful cyclone over the North Pacific and the Bering Sea.
This will be our final update on Nuri. No other tropical cyclones are expected to form in the Western Pacific in the coming days.
Showing posts with label 20W (Nuri). Show all posts
Showing posts with label 20W (Nuri). Show all posts
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Typhoon Nuri Update #8
Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 110514
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Typhoon Nuri is continuing to weaken as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,060km south of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making it a Category 2 Typhoon. Typhoon Nuri is moving north northeastward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Nuri looking far less impressive compared to its appearance just a few days ago when it was a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye is now gone and become cloud-filled, convection has weakened, and outflow has lessened a bit. The inner-core structure is also starting to erode as dry air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear are all taking a toll on the system.
Typhoon Nuri will continue moving quickly to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will be passing well south and east of Japan. However, parts of southeastern Honshu, including Tokyo, may still see some light rain showers by Thursday along with breezy conditions and high waves along the coast.
Nuri will be moving out of the region and into the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by Friday.
We'll have another update later today.
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Typhoon Nuri is continuing to weaken as it moves across the North Pacific. The system was last located approximately 1,060km south of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making it a Category 2 Typhoon. Typhoon Nuri is moving north northeastward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Nuri looking far less impressive compared to its appearance just a few days ago when it was a Category 5 Super Typhoon. The eye is now gone and become cloud-filled, convection has weakened, and outflow has lessened a bit. The inner-core structure is also starting to erode as dry air, cooler sea surface temperatures, and increasing wind shear are all taking a toll on the system.
Typhoon Nuri will continue moving quickly to the northeast over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will be passing well south and east of Japan. However, parts of southeastern Honshu, including Tokyo, may still see some light rain showers by Thursday along with breezy conditions and high waves along the coast.
Nuri will be moving out of the region and into the North Pacific, becoming an extra-tropical cyclone by Friday.
We'll have another update later today.
Monday, November 3, 2014
Super Typhoon Nuri Update #7
Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 110414
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is beginning to weaken this morning as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 880km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Nuri is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri has begun to shrink and be filled with clouds--signs that the storm is weakening. Cloud tops have also warmed around the eye which is a sign that convective activity is weakening a bit. Nuri is starting to move into an area of strong wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, dual outflow channels remain very robust which should help slow down the weakening trend for at least the next 24 hours.
Super Typhoon Nuri will continue moving northeastward across the Pacific in the coming days. Unfavorable conditions will lead to continued weakening during this time frame as well. Increasing interaction with the baroclinic zone will promote widespread rains ahead of the system which may eventually impact parts of Southeastern Honshu. Parts of Chubu and Kanto Regions, including the Tokyo Area, may see some scattered rain showers along with gust winds of up to 60kph by Thursday morning. Thankfully, the dangerously stormy conditions should stay well offshore.
We'll have another update later today.
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is beginning to weaken this morning as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 880km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Nuri is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri has begun to shrink and be filled with clouds--signs that the storm is weakening. Cloud tops have also warmed around the eye which is a sign that convective activity is weakening a bit. Nuri is starting to move into an area of strong wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. However, dual outflow channels remain very robust which should help slow down the weakening trend for at least the next 24 hours.
Super Typhoon Nuri will continue moving northeastward across the Pacific in the coming days. Unfavorable conditions will lead to continued weakening during this time frame as well. Increasing interaction with the baroclinic zone will promote widespread rains ahead of the system which may eventually impact parts of Southeastern Honshu. Parts of Chubu and Kanto Regions, including the Tokyo Area, may see some scattered rain showers along with gust winds of up to 60kph by Thursday morning. Thankfully, the dangerously stormy conditions should stay well offshore.
We'll have another update later today.
Sunday, November 2, 2014
Super Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #6
Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 110314
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify this morning and is now in the upper reaches of Category 5 strength. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 990km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,030km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds near the center are now at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri remaining well-developed surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. The very tight core of Nuri has remained virtually the same since yesterday with no hints of an eyewall replacement cycle occurring anytime soon. Nuri is also displaying very robust outflow channels and feeder bands and adopting a very large appearance on satellite.
Thankfully, though, this monster should stay well offshore throughout its lifetime. It will also start weakening very soon as it moves farther north across the Pacific. Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is forecast to eventually recurve well south of Japan. It may affect parts of Honshu, including Tokyo, later in the week but the impacts should be minimal. There is the possibility for high waves, gusty winds, and scattered rain showers.
We'll have another update later today.
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Super Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify this morning and is now in the upper reaches of Category 5 strength. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 990km southeast of Okinawa, Japan or about 1,030km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds near the center are now at 285kph with gusts of up to 350kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Nuri remaining well-developed surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. The very tight core of Nuri has remained virtually the same since yesterday with no hints of an eyewall replacement cycle occurring anytime soon. Nuri is also displaying very robust outflow channels and feeder bands and adopting a very large appearance on satellite.
Thankfully, though, this monster should stay well offshore throughout its lifetime. It will also start weakening very soon as it moves farther north across the Pacific. Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) is forecast to eventually recurve well south of Japan. It may affect parts of Honshu, including Tokyo, later in the week but the impacts should be minimal. There is the possibility for high waves, gusty winds, and scattered rain showers.
We'll have another update later today.
Super Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #5
Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 110314
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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 970km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,080km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Nuri surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also very strong and robust feeder bands continue to aid in development. It is very likely that Nuri will be upgraded into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tomorrow morning. Further intensification is even possible as conditions in the region are still favorable for tropical cyclones.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Thankfully, this very powerful cyclone will remain over water over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus is taking Nuri north across the Pacific and eventually recurve to the northeast. It may still move close enough to bring mild impacts across the southern coast of Honshu by Wednesday and Thursday. High waves, gusty winds, and light rains are possible during that time frame.
We'll have another update in the morning.
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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon. The eye of Nuri was last located approximately 970km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,080km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 250kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Nuri is moving northward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the pinhole eye of Nuri surrounded by deep and very strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also very strong and robust feeder bands continue to aid in development. It is very likely that Nuri will be upgraded into a Category 5 Super Typhoon tomorrow morning. Further intensification is even possible as conditions in the region are still favorable for tropical cyclones.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Thankfully, this very powerful cyclone will remain over water over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus is taking Nuri north across the Pacific and eventually recurve to the northeast. It may still move close enough to bring mild impacts across the southern coast of Honshu by Wednesday and Thursday. High waves, gusty winds, and light rains are possible during that time frame.
We'll have another update in the morning.
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #4
Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 110214
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Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 950km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making Nuri a Category 2 Typhoon. The system is moving north northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast remaining very symmetrical. An eye is also beginning to appear surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. Radial outflow remains excellent and robust feeder bands continue to surround the circulation center.
Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) will continue turning to the north today avoiding a direct hit to the Philippines. Parts of the country may experience scattered showers but nothing more. Nuri will continue moving northward and may eventually threaten Honshu in Japan by the middle of the week.
We'll have another update later today.
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Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 950km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,300km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making Nuri a Category 2 Typhoon. The system is moving north northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast remaining very symmetrical. An eye is also beginning to appear surrounded by deep and strong convective activity. Radial outflow remains excellent and robust feeder bands continue to surround the circulation center.
Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) will continue turning to the north today avoiding a direct hit to the Philippines. Parts of the country may experience scattered showers but nothing more. Nuri will continue moving northward and may eventually threaten Honshu in Japan by the middle of the week.
We'll have another update later today.
Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #3
Issued (1630 UTC) 1230am PhT 110214
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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) has rapidly intensified this evening and has been upgraded into a Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 1,000km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,400km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Nuri is moving northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continue to improve becoming more symmetrical and uniform over the past few hours. Convective activity also continues to increase and eyewall formation remains in progress. Good equatorward outflow is also helping with the recent round of intensification. Wind shear and sea surface temperatures remain supportive for further intensification.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) will continue to turn to the north away from the Philippines. Parts of the country may still see some rain showers due to the southwesterly flow of the circulation but we are not expecting any adverse impacts from the Typhoon.
Typhoon Nuri will also continue to intensify as it moves across the open waters of the Pacific, likely becoming a Category 4 by Tuesday. It will continue moving northward but long-range forecasts suggest a recurve to the northeast. As for now, everyone in the island of Honshu should remain cautious for the potential impacts from Nuri.
We'll have another update in the morning.
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Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) has rapidly intensified this evening and has been upgraded into a Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 1,000km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,400km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Nuri is moving northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continue to improve becoming more symmetrical and uniform over the past few hours. Convective activity also continues to increase and eyewall formation remains in progress. Good equatorward outflow is also helping with the recent round of intensification. Wind shear and sea surface temperatures remain supportive for further intensification.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) will continue to turn to the north away from the Philippines. Parts of the country may still see some rain showers due to the southwesterly flow of the circulation but we are not expecting any adverse impacts from the Typhoon.
Typhoon Nuri will also continue to intensify as it moves across the open waters of the Pacific, likely becoming a Category 4 by Tuesday. It will continue moving northward but long-range forecasts suggest a recurve to the northeast. As for now, everyone in the island of Honshu should remain cautious for the potential impacts from Nuri.
We'll have another update in the morning.
Friday, October 31, 2014
Tropical Storm Nuri (Paeng) Update #2
Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 110114
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Tropical Storm Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea this morning. The system was last located approximately 620km northwest of Yap or about 940km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nuri is moving west northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast is now developing characterized by strong convective activity over the low-level circulation center. Formative banding also continues to improve and initial signs of eyewall formation is also observed. Nuri remains in an area of generally favorable environment which should lead to further intensification in the coming days.
Tropical Storm Nuri will continue moving west northwestward but should recurve to the north beginning tomorrow. It will also continue intensifying and could be upgraded into a Typhoon in the next 24 hours. With an early recurvature, Nuri should avoid making a direct impact in the Philippines. However, parts of the country may still see some rain showers as the southwesterly flow enhances precipitation.
Long-range forecasts hint of a possible impact for parts of Japan by the middle of next week. We urge continued monitoring for people living in the region.
We'll have another update later tonight.
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Tropical Storm Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea this morning. The system was last located approximately 620km northwest of Yap or about 940km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nuri is moving west northwestward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast is now developing characterized by strong convective activity over the low-level circulation center. Formative banding also continues to improve and initial signs of eyewall formation is also observed. Nuri remains in an area of generally favorable environment which should lead to further intensification in the coming days.
Tropical Storm Nuri will continue moving west northwestward but should recurve to the north beginning tomorrow. It will also continue intensifying and could be upgraded into a Typhoon in the next 24 hours. With an early recurvature, Nuri should avoid making a direct impact in the Philippines. However, parts of the country may still see some rain showers as the southwesterly flow enhances precipitation.
Long-range forecasts hint of a possible impact for parts of Japan by the middle of next week. We urge continued monitoring for people living in the region.
We'll have another update later tonight.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Tropical Depression 20W Update #1
Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 103114
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A new Tropical Depression has formed across the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 20W was last located approximately 400km north northwest of Yap or about 830km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 20W is moving westward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a quickly-developing system with tight banding and increasing convective activity around the low-level center. Further analysis also shows increasing wind speeds around the center along with a rapidly-improving core. TD 20W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Further intensification is likely over the next few days.
Tropical Depression 20W is forecast to continue moving westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. TD 20W may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the name 'Bagyong Paeng' by PAGASA. Further intensification is also likely and we could see TD 20W becoming a tropical storm by today and possibly a typhoon by early next week.
While it is still too early to determine the exact track for TD 20W we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to the Japanese Islands to continue to monitor the progress of this newly-developed cyclone. We'll have our next update later today.
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A new Tropical Depression has formed across the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 20W was last located approximately 400km north northwest of Yap or about 830km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 20W is moving westward at 15kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows a quickly-developing system with tight banding and increasing convective activity around the low-level center. Further analysis also shows increasing wind speeds around the center along with a rapidly-improving core. TD 20W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Further intensification is likely over the next few days.
Tropical Depression 20W is forecast to continue moving westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. TD 20W may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the name 'Bagyong Paeng' by PAGASA. Further intensification is also likely and we could see TD 20W becoming a tropical storm by today and possibly a typhoon by early next week.
While it is still too early to determine the exact track for TD 20W we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to the Japanese Islands to continue to monitor the progress of this newly-developed cyclone. We'll have our next update later today.
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