Saturday, November 1, 2014

Typhoon Nuri (Paeng) Update #3

Issued (1630 UTC) 1230am PhT 110214

Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) has rapidly intensified this evening and has been upgraded into a Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 1,000km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 1,400km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 120kph with gusts of up to 150kph. Typhoon Nuri is moving northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast continue to improve becoming more symmetrical and uniform over the past few hours. Convective activity also continues to increase and eyewall formation remains in progress. Good equatorward outflow is also helping with the recent round of intensification. Wind shear and sea surface temperatures remain supportive for further intensification.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) will continue to turn to the north away from the Philippines. Parts of the country may still see some rain showers due to the southwesterly flow of the circulation but we are not expecting any adverse impacts from the Typhoon.

Typhoon Nuri will also continue to intensify as it moves across the open waters of the Pacific, likely becoming a Category 4 by Tuesday. It will continue moving northward but long-range forecasts suggest a recurve to the northeast. As for now, everyone in the island of Honshu should remain cautious for the potential impacts from Nuri.

We'll have another update in the morning.

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