Friday, October 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Nuri (Paeng) Update #2

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 110114

Tropical Storm Nuri (Bagyong Paeng) continues to intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea this morning. The system was last located approximately 620km northwest of Yap or about 940km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS Nuri is moving west northwestward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast is now developing characterized by strong convective activity over the low-level circulation center. Formative banding also continues to improve and initial signs of eyewall formation is also observed. Nuri remains in an area of generally favorable environment which should lead to further intensification in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Nuri will continue moving west northwestward but should recurve to the north beginning tomorrow. It will also continue intensifying and could be upgraded into a Typhoon in the next 24 hours. With an early recurvature, Nuri should avoid making a direct impact in the Philippines. However, parts of the country may still see some rain showers as the southwesterly flow enhances precipitation.

Long-range forecasts hint of a possible impact for parts of Japan by the middle of next week. We urge continued monitoring for people living in the region.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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