Thursday, October 30, 2014

Tropical Depression 20W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 103114

A new Tropical Depression has formed across the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Depression 20W was last located approximately 400km north northwest of Yap or about 830km west southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 20W is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a quickly-developing system with tight banding and increasing convective activity around the low-level center. Further analysis also shows increasing wind speeds around the center along with a rapidly-improving core. TD 20W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Further intensification is likely over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 20W is forecast to continue moving westward over the next 24 to 48 hours. TD 20W may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be given the name 'Bagyong Paeng' by PAGASA. Further intensification is also likely and we could see TD 20W becoming a tropical storm by today and possibly a typhoon by early next week.

While it is still too early to determine the exact track for TD 20W we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan and all the way to the Japanese Islands to continue to monitor the progress of this newly-developed cyclone. We'll have our next update later today.

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