Tropical Storm Rammasun is now rapidly dissipating over Northern Vietnam. The storm center was last located approximately 160km north of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Rammasun is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows Rammasun quickly unraveling as it traverses Northern Vietnam. The circulation is rapidly dissipating with central convection rapidly deteriorating. Rain bands are still present, however, and will likely linger in the region for another 24 to 48 hours.
Radar Image from CMA
Latest radar image out of Southwestern China shows bands of light to moderate rains are still affecting Yunnan and Guangxi Provinces. Many areas are still reporting 50mm of accumulation to as much as 100mm. Winds of 60 to 80kph are also still being felt in some locations.
For the latest radar images and weather warnings for China, please click HERE (CMA Website)
Tropical Storm Rammasun has killed at least eight (8) people in China and another 70+ people in the Philippines. Thankfully, this system is now dissipating over land.
This will be the final warning for Tropical Storm Rammasun.
We'll have the latest update on Typhoon Matmo tomorrow morning.
Watch our latest Video Update below for more in-depth analysis and forecast for Tropical Storm/Typhoon Matmo.
Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to intensify and is now on the cusp of becoming a Typhoon (in fact JMA already upgraded the system to a Typhoon this afternoon). The system as last located approximately 620km northwest of Palau or about 670km east of Tacloban. Maximum sustained winds are at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Matmo is currently moving northwestward at 20kph.
As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA hasn't issued any Public Storm Warning Signals for the Philippines yet.
IR image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows central convection remains strong with an increasingly symmetrical CDO. An eyewall is also trying to form at the center of Matmo. However, moderate northeasterly wind shear is hampering development and limiting intensification. We expect the environment to become more conducive in the next few days.
Tropical Storm Matmo should become a Typhoon by tomorrow morning and will continue to head northwestward across the Philippine Sea. There is still some uncertainty with the forecast track as some agencies are showing a landfall in Northern Luzon while some in Taiwan. Right now, we urge everyone from Luzon to Taiwan to the Ryukyu Islands in Japan to closely monitor the progress of Matmo.
Another aspect with this cyclone is the enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat). We expect rains to spread across Luzon and Visayas over the next few days as Tropical Storm Matmo pulls to the northwest.
Typhoon Rammasun has made landfall in Guangxi Province in Southwestern China and is currently bringing strong winds and heavy rains. The system was last located approximately 100km southwest of the city of Nanning or about 230km northeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are down to 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Rammasun is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows Rammasun moving over land into Guangxi Province. The eye is no longer visible but the central dense overcast remains strong and symmetrical. The eye made landfall near Beihai earlier this morning bringing winds close to 200kph. Significant storm surge and heavy rains are also affecting the region. Latest reports from the region say extensive damage along the coast along with widespread flooding in many areas.
Radar Image from CMA
Latest radar image out of Guangxi shows the extent of Rammasun's rain bands. Hainan and parts of Guangdong are still reporting light to moderate rains this morning. Closer to the center. winds of up to 180kph along with rainfall accumulations of 250mm continue to be reported. We expect these stormy conditions to last for the next 6 hours.
For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE (CMA Website)
Rammasun should rapidly weaken now that it is moving over land. However, dangerous conditions will still linger for the next 2 days. Stormy weather will start impacting Northern Vietnam, including Hanoi, later this afternoon.
Rammasun has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 Super Typhoon this afternoon and has made landfall in Hainan Island. China Meteorological Administration confirmed landfall in Wenchang with recorded winds of 180kph to 220kph! The eye of Rammasun is now moving into Leizhou Peninsula but is affecting the whole region especially Hainan Island and coastal areas of Guangdong Province.
Watch our latest Video Update below for more info.
Radar from CMA
Latest radar image from Hainan shows the eye remains perfectly symmetrical with very heavy rains in the eyewall. Winds of 160kph continue to be reported in Haikou and up to 200kph in nearby areas. These winds are catastrophic and will do significant damages to many buildings and infrastructure. Even Leizhou Peninsula is experiencing dangerous conditions with strong winds, heavy rains, and significant storm surge especially in the city of Zhanjiang.
For the latest radar images and warnings from China, please click HERE
Super Typhoon Rammasun will continue battering Hainan and Leizhou over the next 12 hours as it moves northwestward into Gulf of Tonkin. Rammasun is forecast to make landfall in Guangxi Province tomorrow afternoon and then move towards Northern Vietnam. The threat for strong winds and heavy rains will shift westward overtime.
IR Image from NOAA
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Matmo (Bagyong Henry) continues to slowly develop as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea. This system will continue moving northwestward over the next few days. Some agencies are expecting Matmo to become a typhoon by early next week. So far, the consensus is taking Matmo well east of the Philippines but it can still impact the country as it enhances the Southwest Monsoon.
We'll have more updates on these two Tropical Cyclones tomorrow morning.
Rammasun (formerly Bagyong Glenda) has rapidly intensified overnight into a Category 4 Typhoon! The system is nearing the island of Hainan and was last located approximately 230km southeast of Haikou or about 380km southwest of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now at 220kph with gusts of up to 270kph. Typhoon Rammasun is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
China Meteorological Administration has issued Orange Warning along the southern coast (Guangxi and Guangdong) for the approaching Typhoon. If you live in these areas, please adhere to the warnings from your local officials!
IR Image from NRLMRY
Typhoon Rammasun has developed into a very dangerous cyclone that will threaten parts of Southern China, especially the island of Hainan. The system has rapidly evolved in the past 24 hours with a perfectly symmetrical eye surrounded by strong and deep convective activity. Rammasun is currently stronger than it was when it made landfall in Luzon a few days ago.
Radar Image from CMA
Latest radar image from China shows the eye of Rammasun approaching the region. Bands of light to moderate rains are starting to affecting Hainan and other parts of Guangdong Province. Some places are also starting to record winds of up to 100kph. We expect conditions to rapidly deteriorate this morning, especially along the coast.
For the latest radar images and forecasts for China, please click HERE (CMA Website)
Typhoon Rammasun is forecast to make landfall in Hainan Island in the next 6 hours and will bring damaging winds and widespread heavy rains in the region. There is also a high threat for storm surge along the coast. The eye will cross Leizhou Peninsula and will bring winds of up to 200kph in many places. It will then weaken slightly as it moves into the Gulf of Tonkin by tonight and will move towards Northern Vietnam by tomorrow morning.
Typhoon Rammasun (Formerly Bagyong Glenda) continues to intensify as it moves across the South China Sea. The center was last located approximately 500km southeast of Haikou, Hainan or about 540km south of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Rammasun is moving northwestward at 20kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Rammasun becoming more defined this evening. The convective activity remains strong and well-organized as well. Furthermore, the eyewall has become well-established this afternoon and we expect more intensification to happen tonight.
Some light to moderate rains are now forming across Hainan and along the coastal areas in Guangdong Province. We expect rains to overspread Southern China tonight and into tomorrow. Coastal areas should also be wary of high waves and storm surge especially in Hainan Island.
Typhoon Rammasun is forecast to make landfall in Hainan by tomorrow afternoon (Friday) as a powerful Category 3 Typhoon. It will then move near Haikou City bringing dangerous and damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Rammasun will then turn westward and make landfall in Northern Vietnam by Saturday moving near Hanoi and bringing the same dangerous threats in that region.
Meanwhile the Tropical Depression (93W) near Palau continues to slowly organize and is forecast to become a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours. This system will also enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow and will be named "Bagyong Henry" by PAGASA.
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) is starting to re-intensify as it moves away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The system was last located approximately 650km west northwest of Manila or about 640km south of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are up to 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Rammasun is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
PAGASA has now dropped all Public Storm Warning Signals in the Philippines.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Rammasun is starting to recover after it made landfall in Luzon, Philippines yesterday. An eye is starting to re-appear and the convection remains strong and well-organized. Further analysis reveals that the eyewall is recovering nicely and we expect it to become completely established later today which will lead to further intensification.
Typhoon Rammasun could reach Category 3 intensity once again as it moves across the South China Sea. It is forecast to make landfall in the island of Hainan by tomorrow afternoon (Friday). It will bring strong damaging winds along with widespread heavy rains in the region. Rammasun will, then, head towards Northern Vietnam by Saturday.
If
you have any pictures or videos showing the impacts of Glenda in your
area, please share them with us through our Facebook Page (above) or
through our email: philippineweather@yahoo.com
Please watch our Video Update for below for the latest analysis and forecasts for Typhoon Rammasun. We are also watching a developing low pressure area east of Mindanao so be sure to watch our video for more information about that LPA.
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) is now moving quickly away from the Philippines. The storm center was last located approximately 320km west northwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kph making Rammasun a Category 1 Typhoon. The system is currently moving west northwestward at 30kph. As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has removed most Signal Warnings in the country. However, Public Storm Warning Signal #1 is still up for the following areas: Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Lubang Island, Pangasinan, and Metro Manila.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows the center of Rammasun is now moving away across the waters of the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). There are still some residual rains moving across Southern and Central Luzon bringing light to moderate rain showers. We expect those to gradually taper off tonight and into tomorrow.
For the latest radar images, please click HERE (ClimateX PH)
Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving quickly to the northwest and should exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning (Thursday). We are also expecting the system to re-intensify as it moves across the open waters. Rammasun is forecast to move into Hainan Island by Friday afternoon and then towards Northern Vietnam by Saturday.
If you have any pictures or videos showing the impacts of Glenda in your area, please share them with us through our Facebook Page (above) or through our email: philippineweather@yahoo.com
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) is now moving into open waters of South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) this morning. The center was last located approximately 20km southwest of Mariveles, Bataan or about 60km west southwest of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have gone down slightly to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Rammasun is moving west northwestward at 25kph. As of 5am this morning, here are the Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA: Signal #3: Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Quezon, Polilio Island, Alabat Island, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Marinduque, Northern Mindoro Provinces, Lubang Island, Metro Manila. Signal #2: La Union, Benguet, Nueva Ecija, Southern Aurora, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Burias Island, Romblon, Rest of Mindoro Provinces (Oriental and Occidental). Signal #1: Ilocos Sur, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Rest of Aurora, Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Ticao Island, and Masbate.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the center of Glenda now exiting Luzon Island and moving into open waters. The system moved very quickly overnight passing across Bicol Region and Southern Luzon. Despite landfall, Glenda only weakened slightly and moved just south of Metro Manila by 6am this morning. Winds of up to 120kph were reported across the region causing damage in many areas.
We'll have more updates with damages and impacts across Luzon. Meanwhile, we're still expecting heavy rains and flooding to continue across Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. Winds off the Manila Bay may bring moderate Storm Surge along the coast including Caviete and parts of Manila and Bulacan. Flooding will also continue across many areas as heavy rains will linger throughout the day.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving quickly to the northwest. It may re-intensify now that it is over the waters of South China Sea. Stormy weather will continue in Central Luzon through this afternoon and evening hours. Bicol Region and Visayas should start to see clearing today though.
Rammasun is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning (Thursday). It may intensify to a Category 3 Typhoon before moving towards Southern China. Right now, the forecast is taking Rammasun towards Hainan by Friday morning as a powerful and dangerous typhoon.
If you have any videos or images showing the impacts of Typhoon Glenda, please share them with us on our Facebook Page or email us at philippineweather@yahoo.com
Please watch our latest Video Update this afternoon for the complete analysis and in-depth forecasts for the areas that will be impacted by Typhoon Glenda.
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) has intensified even further as it makes landfall in Albay Province. The system was last located approximately 10km northeast of Legazpi City, Albay, 40km northwest of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon, 60km southwest of Virac, Catanduanes, or about 80km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur. Maximum sustained winds are at 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph making Rammasun a Category 3 Typhoon!
As of 5pm this afternoon, here are the latest PAGASA Public Storm Signal Warnings:
Signal #3: Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Quezon, Polilio Island, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Northern Samar, Norther portions of Samar and Eastern Samar. Signal #2: Southern Aurora, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Biliran, Rest of Eastern Samar, Northern Leyte, Metro Manila. Signal #1: Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Occidental Mindoro, rest of Leyte, Southern Leyte, Northern Cebu including Cebu City. Camotes Islands.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Rammasun (Glenda) making landfall in Albay. The system rapidly intensified with a clear 20-km diameter eye forming surrounded by a very symmetrical Central Dense Overcast. Legazpi City reported a pressure drop to 974mb along with winds of up to 100kph. We're expecting the city to get raked in the next few hours which will definitely bring significant wind damage and even storm surge along the coast.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Rammasun will continue moving west northwestward moving across the provinces in the Bicol Region tonight. Heavy rains will continue across Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas along with strong winds. Stormy conditions will soon move into parts of CALABARZON including Metro Manila in the morning hours tomorrow (Wednesday) with the worst conditions likely to occur in Manila around noontime.
By Wednesday evening, we're forecasting Glenda to move into Central Luzon and eventually exit into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). However, rains will not end across Luzon until Thursday morning. We're expecting a total of up to 300mm of rain in some areas in Luzon.
We'll have another update in the morning. Stay safe!
If you missed it, we released a Video Update this morning containing complete analysis and in-depth forecasts for the areas that will be impacted by Typhoon Glenda.
Typhoon Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) continues to slightly intensify as it moves very near Northern Samar. The eye of Rammasun was last located approximately 60km east northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar, 130km southeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or about 150km east southeast of Legazpi City, Albay. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.
As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised the following Signal Warnings:
Signal #3: Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Ticao and Burias Island, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar. Signal #2: Rest of Quezon, Polilio Island, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Biliran, Rest of Samar and Eastern Samar, Northern part of Leyte.
Signal #1: Romblon, Mindoro, Lubang Island, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Aurora, Southern Part of Leyte, Camotes Island.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the eye appearing nicely now as the system continues to intensify over water. The eyewall is brushing the northern coast of Samar with Catarman reporting winds of up to 80kph. Rain clouds are also affecting much of Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas. We're already seeing reports of up to 50mm of rainfall accumulation in the last 12 hours. We're expecting another 100 to 200mm of rain which will bring flooding and landslides.
Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) will make landfall in Sorsogon/Albay area later this afternoon at around 5 to 6pm local time. It will then cross into Bicol Region, weakening slightly, but will still bring dangerous storm surge especially in the city of Legazpi, Albay. Heavy rains will then push northwestward into Southern Luzon and into Metro Manila tonight and into tomorrow morning.
We'll have another update later this afternoon. Stay safe!
Please watch our Video Update below for complete analysis and in-depth forecast for Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda).
Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 1 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 120km east northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar, 180km southeast of Virac, Catanduanes, or about 220km east southeast of Legazpi, Albay. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Rammasun is currently moving westward at 20kph.
VIS Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows the center of Rammasun moving very near the island of Samar. The central dense overcast remains strong and symmetrical with the center surrounded by strong convective activity. Much of Bicol and Eastern Visayas are already experiencing heavy rains and strong winds. Weather conditions will only get worse throughout the day today.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) is forecast to make landfall in the Albay/Sorsogon area later this evening. The system will then move across the Bicol Region and eventually into Southern Luzon. Metro Manila will experience strong winds and very heavy rain tonight and into tomorrow. Even parts of Northern Luzon could see heavy rains by Wednesday.
Rammasun is forecast to exit Luzon into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Thursday morning and will head towards Southern China by late this week. Heavy rains will continue across Luzon by Thursday but the weather should slowly improve later that day.
Please watch our Video Update below for the complete analysis and forecast for Tropical Storm Rammasun:
Tropical Storm Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) continues to intensify and could become a Typhoon later this evening. The storm was last located approximately 400km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or about 520km east southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are now at 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph. As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes. Signal #2 for Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Southern Quezon, and Northern Samar. Signal #1 for Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Lubang Island, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Southern Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polilio Island, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and Metro Manila.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows Rammasun improving with an increasingly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast. Banding is also improved and it looks like the system is trying to form an eye. The wind shear has weakened and the forward speed has slowed down allowing Rammasun to consolidate and intensify. There is a high possibility that this system will become a Typhoon by tonight.
Tropical Storm Rammasun (Glenda) is forecast to make landfall in the Albay or Sorsogon Province by tomorrow morning. It will first impact Samar Island bringing strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surge along the coast. It will move west northwestward across the Bicol Region through the morning hours of Tuesday and eventually move into Southern Luzon in the afternoon. It will impact Metro Manila by tomorrow evening bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the capital. Much of Southern Luzon and parts of Visayas will see periods of heavy rain in the next 24 to 36 hours so flooding and landslides will be likely.
Rammasun will move into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Wednesday morning and could threaten Southern China by late this week.
We'll have another update tomorrow morning, stay safe!
Tropical Storm Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) has slightly intensified this morning as it races towards the Philippines. The storm center was last located approximately 700km east northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar or about 800km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds are up slightly to 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 30kph.
As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar.
IR Image from NLRMRY
Latest satellite image shows that convective activity has increased over the past 6 hours with very cold cloud tops forming around the circulation. The low-level center also seems to have moved underneath the coldest cloud cluster which could mean that the system is further intensifying.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tropical Storm Rammasun (Bagyong Glenda) will continue moving quickly to the west. It will start to impact parts of the Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas later this afternoon with light to moderate rains. The system should also continue slowly intensifying as conditions become more favorable.
Tropical Storm Rammasun is forecast to make landfall in the Bicol Region by tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday). There is a very small chance that Rammasun/Glenda will intensify to a Typhoon before it makes landfall. However, our current forecast track is not reflecting that at the moment. Of course, everything could change over the next 24 hours.
The biggest threat will be the widespread heavy rains that will spread towards Southern and Central Luzon, including Metro Manila. Flooding and landslides will be likely so please heed the warnings of your local officials!
Tropical Storm Rammasun has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Glenda' by PAGASA on their next update. The system continues to struggle amidst the strong wind shear in the region. Rammasun was last located approximately 1,100km east of Virac, Catanduanes. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows convection remains strong but the center of circulation continues to be displaced from the cloud cluster. There is still high wind shear in the region and that is not allowing the system to consolidate and deepen. In fact, majority of computer models and agencies have lowered their intensity forecasts for the next few days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Out latest forecast track reflects the recent changes in the computer model outputs as well as taking into account the current situation in the Philippine Sea. We no longer expect Rammasun (Glenda) to become a Typhoon. However, that does not mean the system will no longer pose a threat to the Philippines.
Rammasun is forecast to move towards Luzon and could make landfall somewhere in the Aurora/Quezon Provinces. It will begin affecting the Bicol Region by Tuesday morning and then making landfall in Luzon by Tuesday evening. Rainfall amounts of up to 200mm should be expected across much of Luzon, including Metro Manila. Flooding and landslides are possible. Rammasun will then move into the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea) by Wednesday morning.
Tropical Storm Rammasun continues to struggle developing as it moves across the Western Pacific. The system was last located approximately 640km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.
IR Image from NOAA
Latest satellite image shows that while the convection remains strong, the system as a whole isn't really that organized. The low-level circulation center is still displaced east of the clouds as strong wind shear hamper development. Furthermore, there is no clear banding taking shape--a sign that the Rammasun isn't really intensifying.
Conditions are marginally favorable for development so we are not expecting any substantial intensification to happen within the next 24 hours. In fact, at this rate, Rammasun may find it difficult to intensify into a Typhoon which is good news for the Philippines.
As far as the track is concerned, we are still thinking that Rammasun will impact the Philippines one way or another by the middle of next week. We will continue watching the trends to see if the system will intensify in the coming days.
Tropical Depression 09W has intensified and been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rammasun. The system continues to move across the Western Pacific and was last located approximately 330km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows an increase in convective activity over the past 12 hours. We think the low-level center is still in the outer periphery of the cloud cluster but overall satellite presentation looks improved compared to yesterday. Wind shear is still marginally favorable and dry air is still present which could hamper development in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Tropical Storm Rammasun will continue organizing at a slow pace over the next 24 hours but the pace of intensification should increase as it moves into the Philippine Sea. We expect the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, by which time PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Glenda' for this storm.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with both the track and intensity. For now, we are leaning with the GFS model which shows a track towards the island of Luzon by the middle of next week. We also expect the conditions to become more favorable and should allow Rammasun to reach Typhoon strength by Tuesday.
Residents in Luzon and even in Visayas should continue to closely watch the progress of this developing Tropical Cyclone. We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
Tropical Depression 09W remains weak and loosely disorganized as it moves across the Mariana Islands this morning. The system was last located approximately 40km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 09W is moving westward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has removed the Tropical Storm Warnings for the Mariana Islands.
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows TD 09W moving away from the island of Guam. The system maintains a weak and ill-defined low-level circulation center that is displaced from the main cluster of convection. Guam and nearby islands never really reported winds above 30kph and the poor presentation of the system on satellite led to its downgrading to a Tropical Depression.
Guam and the Mariana Islands should have clearing weather today as TD 09W moves westward. Computer models are still split on the future of this system. GFS remains the most aggressive but even that model has tempered its forecasts over the last 24 hours. Still, we expect TD 09W to slowly intensify over the next few days and become a Tropical Storm as it moves into the Philippine Sea.
Residents in the Philippines should still monitor the developments of this system over the next few days.
A new Tropical Cyclone has developed over the Western Pacific and is currently threatening the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm 09W was last located approximately 320km east of Guam or about 320km southeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS 09W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.
The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guam and nearby islands. Furthermore, the government in Guam has placed the island under a Condition of Readiness 2 urging residents to be prepared for damaging winds and heavy rains. Please listen to your local officials for the latest warnings.
For the latest weather updates and radar images from Guam, please click HERE (NWS Website)
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity forming near the circulation center. The low-level center is partially obscured but is still displaced somewhat from the main cluster of clouds. Nevertheless, TS 09W is in an area of favorable conditions and should continue developing over the next few days.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
Our preliminary forecast is based mainly on the GFS model and the current atmospheric conditions in the region. Tropical Storm 09W will affect Guam and the Mariana Islands tonight and into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of up to 100mm are possible. The system will then head westward, intensifying along the way. We expect 09W to become a Typhoon by early next week and could threaten parts of the Philippines later that week.
