Saturday, July 12, 2014

Tropical Storm Rammasun Update #3

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 071214

Tropical Depression 09W has intensified and been upgraded to Tropical Storm Rammasun. The system continues to move across the Western Pacific and was last located approximately 330km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Rammasun is moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows an increase in convective activity over the past 12 hours. We think the low-level center is still in the outer periphery of the cloud cluster but overall satellite presentation looks improved compared to yesterday. Wind shear is still marginally favorable and dry air is still present which could hamper development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Rammasun will continue organizing at a slow pace over the next 24 hours but the pace of intensification should increase as it moves into the Philippine Sea. We expect the system to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, by which time PAGASA will assign the local name 'Bagyong Glenda' for this storm.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with both the track and intensity. For now, we are leaning with the GFS model which shows a track towards the island of Luzon by the middle of next week. We also expect the conditions to become more favorable and should allow Rammasun to reach Typhoon strength by Tuesday.

Residents in Luzon and even in Visayas should continue to closely watch the progress of this developing Tropical Cyclone. We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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