Friday, July 11, 2014

Tropical Depression 09W Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 071214

Tropical Depression 09W remains weak and loosely disorganized as it moves across the Mariana Islands this morning. The system was last located approximately 40km west of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 09W is moving westward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has removed the Tropical Storm Warnings for the Mariana Islands.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows TD 09W moving away from the island of Guam. The system maintains a weak and ill-defined low-level circulation center that is displaced from the main cluster of convection. Guam and nearby islands never really reported winds above 30kph and the poor presentation of the system on satellite led to its downgrading to a Tropical Depression.

Guam and the Mariana Islands should have clearing weather today as TD 09W moves westward. Computer models are still split on the future of this system. GFS remains the most aggressive but even that model has tempered its forecasts over the last 24 hours. Still, we expect TD 09W to slowly intensify over the next few days and become a Tropical Storm as it moves into the Philippine Sea.

Residents in the Philippines should still monitor the developments of this system over the next few days.

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