Friday, July 11, 2014

Tropical Storm 09W Update #1

Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 071114

A new Tropical Cyclone has developed over the Western Pacific and is currently threatening the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm 09W was last located approximately 320km east of Guam or about 320km southeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS 09W is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guam and nearby islands. Furthermore, the government in Guam has placed the island under a Condition of Readiness 2 urging residents to be prepared for damaging winds and heavy rains. Please listen to your local officials for the latest warnings. 

For the latest weather updates and radar images from Guam, please click HERE (NWS Website)

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity forming near the circulation center. The low-level center is partially obscured but is still displaced somewhat from the main cluster of clouds. Nevertheless, TS 09W is in an area of favorable conditions and should continue developing over the next few days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast is based mainly on the GFS model and the current atmospheric conditions in the region. Tropical Storm 09W will affect Guam and the Mariana Islands tonight and into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts of up to 100mm are possible. The system will then head westward, intensifying along the way. We expect 09W to become a Typhoon by early next week and could threaten parts of the Philippines later that week.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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