Goni (Extra-Tropical) Update #11 [FINAL]

Issued (0230 UTC) 1030am PhT 082615
__________________________________

Goni has now fully transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone over the Sea of Japan. The storm center was last located approximately 420km south southeast of Vladivostok, Russia or about 680km northwest of Tokyo, Japan. Maximum winds are between 60 and 80kph. This system is currently moving north northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Goni became fully extra-tropical early this morning over the Sea of Japan. It made landfall in the island of Kyushu yesterday bringing strong winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains of up to 150mm. Parts of the Korean Peninsula also received heavy rains of as much as 300mm. In the Philippines, Goni left 21 people killed in its wake.

The system will now head northwards and will be affecting the Russian Far East, including the city of Vladivostok. Strong winds and widespread rains will be affecting the region over the next 24 to 48 hours.

This is our final update for Goni. The rest of the Western Pacific is currently free from any tropical cyclones and we don't expect formation over the next few days.

Typhoon Goni Update #10

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082515
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm! 

Typhoon Goni is now weakening as it moves into the Sea of Japan. The typhoon's center was last located approximately 370km west of Osaka, Japan or about 480km southeast of Seoul, South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140kph with gusts of up to 175kh. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 35kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Typhoon Goni beginning to move into the Sea of Japan. Goni made landfall in the island of Kyushu earlier this morning bringing winds of up to 165kph and heavy rains across the region. It has since weakened with the eye no longer visible and convection weakening as well. We are also starting to see hints of extra-tropical transition occurring as the organization is looking more asymmetrical and elongated.

Typhoon Goni will continue weakening and should be downgraded into a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. Rains should also end across much of Japan by tonight but parts of South Korea, particularly the eastern portions, will continue to see wet weather last into tomorrow. Goni is forecast to complete extra-tropical transition by Wednesday or Thursday and may threaten the Russian Far East later this week.

We'll have another update tonight.

Typhoon Goni Update #9

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 082415
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Goni (Formerly Bagyong Ineng) is now moving near the Ryukyu Islands of Japan bringing strong winds and heavy rains in the region. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km northwest of Okinawa Island. Maximum sustained winds are at 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving northeastward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Goni remaining fully established as it moves just west of the Ryukyu Islands. Goni rapidly intensified last night and attained Category 4 intensity as it lashed Ishigakijima and the nearby islands. Wind gusts of up to 255kph along with rainfall amounts of up to 280mm were recorded last night. Thankfully, the core of Goni is staying well offshore from Okinawa and nearby islands. However, stormy conditions will still persist across the region through tonight.

Radar Image from JMA

 
Latest radar image out of the Ryukyu Islands shows the eye of Goni staying just west and is close enough to bring bands of light to moderate rains across the region. Inside these bands, rainfall rates may exceed 20mm per hour. Overall, we're expecting anywhere from 100 to 200mm of rain over the next 24 hours. The good news is that Goni is now accelerating which should limit the duration of stormy weather.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni will continue moving northeastward and should begin to weaken today. It will start encountering increasing wind shear and drier air. Nevertheless, Goni  may still make landfall in the island of Kyushu as a Category 1 Typhoon by Tuesday morning. Aside from Kyushu, parts of Shikoku and Western Honshu may also be impacted by Goni. Eventually, the typhoon is forecast to move just east of the Korean Peninsula by Wednesday and is expected to bring unsettled weather into South Korea.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #8

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 082315
__________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) is showing signs of possible re-intensification as it moves closer to the Miyako Islands of Japan. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan or about 250km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 370km north northwest of Basco, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm Warnings for Yaeyema Islands, along with several advisories for high waves, heavy rains, and floods.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has started to clear out after an apparent eyewall replacement cycle happened last night. A new eyewall has successfully taken over and we are starting to see convective activity respond to that as cold cloud tops reappear around the core. Apart from the successful EWRC, Goni is moving into an area of high ocean heat content, and radial outflow has also improved. We expect Goni to re-intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon later this evening and may maintain that intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image from Yaeyema Islands show the well-developed eyewall of Goni with heavy to extreme rains embedded along the bands. Some of those bands have begun to impact Yaeyema Islands bringing rainfall rates of up to 20mm of rain in just an hour. Some of these islands, especially those closer to the core, may receive up to a total of 200mm of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours. Even parts of Okinawa and the nearby islands may see periods of heavy rains tomorrow morning.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving north northeastward over the next few days. We expect slight re-intensification to happen between tonight and into tomorrow as conditions will remain favorable for typhoon strengthening. By tomorrow morning (Monday), Goni is forecast to move just west of Okinawa as a Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are forecast to linger across the region through Tuesday.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon Goni will also continue to affect much of the Philippines, particularly Luzon and Western Visayas. Many areas, including Baguio City, have received as much as 250mm of rain in the past two days. We expect the wet weather to prevail across the said regions through the middle part of the week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #7

Issued (1230 UTC) 0830pm PhT 082015
__________________________________

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) has intensified earlier today and continues to move closer to Taiwan and the Philippine Islands. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 240km southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 600km northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving westward at 15kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Batanes Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands.

Signal #2 for Rest of Cagayan, Northern Isabela, Kalinga, Apayao, Abra, and Ilocos Norte.

Signal #1 for Rest of Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Benguet, La Union, and Ilocos Sur.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has cleared and become more better-defined as compared to 24 hours. The system has managed to re-intensify to a Category 4 Typhoon with the help of warm waters and good upper-level outflow. As the system gets closer to parts of Luzon, we are seeing bands of light to moderate rains beginning to impact the region. Winds will also start to increase especially in extreme Northern Luzon and the islands north of that.

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving slowly westward over the next 24 hours. However, the system is then forecast to take a sharp turn to the north avoiding a landfall in either Luzon or Taiwan. However, the said regions will still experience stormy conditions that will persist through this weekend.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #6

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 081915
_____________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) has slightly weaken as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 780km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 1,060km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are down slightly to 185kph with gusts of up to 230kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the eye of Typhoon Goni has become cloud filled and is no longer as well-defined as yesterday. Goni underwent an eyewall replacement cycle but was never really able to recover. The eyewall is struggling to be completely formed which is one of the big reasons Goni is not re-intensifying currently.

With that said, we still expect Goni to pose a threat across Taiwan and Northern Philippines. It may still intensify as well, as it is expected to move across warmer waters in the Philippine Sea. As it gets nearer, scattered to widespread rains due to the enhanced southwesterly flow will also move across parts of the Philippines.

By Friday, Goni is expected to take a sharp northward turn which should avoid a direct landfall. However, Northern Luzon, Batanes Islands, and Taiwan will still see unsettled weather conditions throughout the weekend. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves will be predominant in the said regions.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Typhoon Goni Update #5

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 081815
__________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Typhoon Goni has slightly weakened as it begins to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 1,180km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are down to 195kph with gusts of up to 240kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Goni beginning to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. The pinhole eye that was prominent yesterday is now being replaced with a much larger eye. Convective activity remains strong and radial outflow remains good as well. Upon a successful completion of the ERC, we expect Goni to resume intensifying later this week.

Typhoon Goni will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later this afternoon and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Ineng' by PAGASA. We're not expecting any direct impacts from the typhoon just yet. However, monsoon rains enhanced by Goni may begin to affect parts of the Philippines, particularly Visayas, by tomorrow.

Goni will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next few days. Latest forecast consensus shows a sharp northward turn near Taiwan this weekend. Heavy rains and strong winds are possible across Taiwan and even Northern Philippines during this time. There is still a chance of a direct landfall, particularly in Taiwan, so we still have to watch out for shifts in the forecasts over the next few days.

We'll have another update tonight.

Typhoon Goni Update #4

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 081715
__________________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm! 

Goni has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 4 Typhoon. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 560km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a very small eye has appeared this morning surrounded by strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also improved. Due to the nature of the structure, we expect Goni to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle pretty soon. Depending on the intensification in the next 12 to 24 hours, Goni may reach a peak of Category 5 Super Typhoon strength before slowly weakening by the middle of the week.

Latest forecast consensus is still showing a track that may take Goni towards Taiwan later this week. If Goni is able to successfully complete the eyewall replacement cycle, it may maintain strong typhoon-intensity as it pushes westward. Based on the current speed, Goni may start affecting Taiwan and nearby regions by Thursday and Friday. Even parts of Northern Philippines may see some stormy conditions once we approach that period.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Goni Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 081615
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm!

Tropical Storm Goni continues to intensify as it slowly moves away from the Marianas Islands. The center of Goni was last located approximately 150km north northwest of Guam or about 160km southwest of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are up to 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Goni is currently moving west northwest at 10kph.

Tropical Storm Warnings remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan and adjacent waters as issued by the National Weather Service. Even though the storm is pulling away, expect the adverse conditions to linger throughout today.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows improving structure with tightly curved banding wrapping around the center of Tropical Storm Goni. Outflow has also improved and we expect overall conditions to improve and be more conducive for further development. Goni may even become a typhoon later tonight based on the current trends.

Radar Image from Guam (NWS)

 
Latest radar image out of Guam shows an eye-like feature starting to appear with moderate to heavy rain wrapping around the center. Guam reported nearly 12 inches of rain (300mm) over the past 48 hours breaking the record for the island. Wind gusts of up to 50mph (80kph) have also been recorded in Saipan and nearby stations.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings across the Marianas Islands, please click HERE (NWS Website)

Tropical Storm Goni will continue moving generally to the west becoming a typhoon likely this evening. Based on the long-range forecasts from the agencies in the region, along with computer model outputs, Goni may threaten parts of Eastern Asia, particularly Taiwan and maybe even the Philippines,  by the latter part of next week. Residents along the region are urged to continue monitoring the developments of Goni.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Storm Goni Update #2

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 081515
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm! 

TD 16W has intensified and has been upgraded into Tropical Storm Goni this morning. The center of circulation of this storm was last located approximately 180km southeast of Saipan or about 190km east northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tinian, Saipan, Rota, and Guam. The NWS is expecting winds of tropical storm-force of 65kph or more within the next 24 hours. Rainfall amounts of up to 300mm (12in) are also possible across the region throughout this weekend.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows convective activity continues to increase and become more organized with banding beginning to wrap around the low-level circulation center. Wind shear is light to moderate and upper-level patterns are becoming more favorable for continued intensification. We may see Goni intensify to a high-end Tropical Storm before it reaches the Marianas Islands.

Radar Image from Guam (NWS)

Latest long-range radar image shows bands of light to moderate rains, with pockets of heavy rains, affecting the Marianas Islands particularly Guam. The international airport in Guam has already reported rainfall accumulations of up to 75mm (3in) in the past 12 hours alone. We expect the widespread rains to persist and also spread north towards Tinian and Saipan tonight. Overall, we expect a general 3-6 inches (75-150mm) of rain in the next 24 hours. Some places may see up to a foot (300mm) of rain once Goni passes.

For the latest radar images and forecasts for the Marianas, please click HERE (NWS Guam)

Tropical Storm Goni will continue moving generally to the northwest with continued intensification expected. The center of Goni is forecast to pass south of Saipan by tomorrow morning (Sunday) as a strong Tropical Storm. Wind gusts of up to 100kph may be felt especially along the coast. Stormy weather will likely stay across the region through the early part of Monday.

After the Marianas, there are still some uncertainties as to where Goni will end up next. However, we urge everyone across the East Asian region to continue monitoring the developments of this storm. Based on current projections, Goni may reach the East Asia area by the latter part of next week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

Tropical Depression 16W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12am PhT 081415
______________________________

Like our FACEBOOK PAGE for the latest updates on this storm! 

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific this morning. Currently codenamed Tropical Depression 16W, the circulation center was last located approximately 530km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 16W is currently moving northwestward at 10kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Tinian and Saipan while a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Guam and Rota. Please continue monitoring the developments of 16W and be updated with the warnings from the local officials.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows Tropical Depression 16W in its formative stages. Convective activity is still sparse but has been increasing and becoming more organized in the past 12 hours. There is still some moderate wind shear in the region, though, and upper-level patterns limit convection at least in the near future. We expect TD 16W to steadily intensify thereafter.

Based on the current steering patterns in the region, we expect TD 16W to slowly move generally to the northwest. Once it moves to an area of favorable environment, we expect 16W to begin intensifying at a steadier and faster pace. TD 16W may impact parts of the Marianas Islands later this weekend and into early parts of the week.

We'll have another update tonight.