Thursday, August 13, 2015

Tropical Depression 16W Update #1

Issued (04 UTC) 12am PhT 081415

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A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific this morning. Currently codenamed Tropical Depression 16W, the circulation center was last located approximately 530km east of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 16W is currently moving northwestward at 10kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Typhoon Watch for Tinian and Saipan while a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Guam and Rota. Please continue monitoring the developments of 16W and be updated with the warnings from the local officials.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Tropical Depression 16W in its formative stages. Convective activity is still sparse but has been increasing and becoming more organized in the past 12 hours. There is still some moderate wind shear in the region, though, and upper-level patterns limit convection at least in the near future. We expect TD 16W to steadily intensify thereafter.

Based on the current steering patterns in the region, we expect TD 16W to slowly move generally to the northwest. Once it moves to an area of favorable environment, we expect 16W to begin intensifying at a steadier and faster pace. TD 16W may impact parts of the Marianas Islands later this weekend and into early parts of the week.

We'll have another update tonight.

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