Typhoon In-Fa Update #3

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 112015
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In-Fa has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The center of Typhoon In-Fa was last located approximately 520km southeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon In-Fa is currently moving west northwestward at 15kph.

In anticipation of the oncoming typhoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guam. The NWS is warning for possible strong winds of up to 100kph affecting the region within the next 24 hours.

For the latest warnings from NWS, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a central dense overcast has developed with a pinhole eye in the center. Strong convection continues to expand as well, being aided by excellent radial outflow and weak wind shear. In-Fa will continue to intensify and may become a Category 3 Typhoon by tomorrow.

Forecast Track from the NWS

 
The latest OFFICIAL Forecast Track from the National Weather Service in Guam shows Typhoon In-Fa tracking generally west northwestward over the next few days. The eye of In-Fa is forecast to pass within 300km to the south of Guam by Saturday morning. While the center will be passing far from Guam, tropical storm-force winds of up to 100kph are still possible across Guam and nearby islands. Showery precipitation and high waves are also forecast to dominate the weather in the region.

Typhoon In-Fa is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday evening and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Marilyn.' However, we are not expecting In-Fa to directly impact the Philippines. It is forecast to eventually recurve to the north by Tuesday away from any land areas.

We'll have another update later this evening.

Tropical Storm In-Fa Update #2

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 111815
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Tropical Depression 27W has intensified into Tropical Storm In-Fa and continues to quickly consolidate as it moves across the Western Pacific. The storm center was last located approximately 240km southwest of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are now at 95kph with gusts of up to 120kph. TS In-Fa is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has now issued several Typhoon Warnings and Watches across the numerous islands and atolls across the Caroline Islands, particularly in Chuuk. Typhoon-force winds of more than 120kph (74mph) are possible in some locations. 

For the latest official warnings and forecasts, please head to the NWS Website by clicking HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows a much improved cyclone with tightly-curved convective banding wrapping around the circulation. An eye-feature is also beginning to form which is a sign of further intensification. TS In-Fa is located in a highly conducive environment with excellent radial outflow, warm sea temperatures, and light wind shear. We expect continued intensification in the coming days.

Tropical Storm In-Fa is forecast to continue moving generally west northwestward and may move near Chuuk by tomorrow morning as a Category 1 Typhoon. Medium-range forecasts and consensus among the computer models suggest a potential path towards Guam and the Marianas Islands. Right now, it's still uncertain how close In-Fa will get to Guam but expect stormy conditions to still impact the region in one way or another this weekend.

Residents in the region are advised to heed the official warnings and forecasts of their local government. Stay safe!

Tropical Depression 27W Update #1

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT111715
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After nearly a month of inactivity, a new Tropical Depression has formed in the Western Pacific this morning. Tropical Depression 27W is currently moving near the Caroline Islands and was last located approximately 530km southeast of Pohnpei. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 27W is currently moving westward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows the location of TD 27W. The system is still in the early stages of development with the low-level center becoming more consolidated. We expect continued intensification as TD 27W will be moving through conducive environment in the Pacific.

Current computer model tracks all show a general west northwestward movement in the coming days. Continued intensification is likely and may help TD 27W reach typhoon-strength later this week. Furthermore, current consensus shows a track that may take 27W near Guam and the Marianas Islands this weekend.

We urge residents in the region to continue monitoring the progress of Tropical Depression 27W.