Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #4 (FINAL)

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 092914
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Tropical Storm Kanmuri continues to move quickly across the North Pacific today, away from Japan. The system was last located approximately 720km southeast of Tokyo. Maximum sustained winds are at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northeastward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Latest satellite image shows weakening convection, especially across the western and southern portions. However, the low-level circulation remains intact and satellite analysis reveals winds well within tropical storm strength still exist. Kanmuri is currently undergoing extra-tropical transition which it should complete very soon.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri will continue moving quickly northeastward across the North Pacific. It should become a mid-latitude cyclone in the next 24 hours and no longer a threat to land.

This will be the final update for Kanmuri. We are monitoring a newly-developed Tropical Depression (18W) which may impact Guam and the Mariana Islands in the coming days. We'll have a full update on this said system later today.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 092714
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Tropical Storm Kanmuri has intensified even further this morning as it moves near the Ogasawara Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 330km northeast of the island of Iwo To (Iwo Jima). Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to build, especially along the eastern flank. Kanmuri is showing characteristics of a monsoon depression with a very large circulation and weak convection near the center. We are also seeing multiple vortices spinning around a common center. The large nature of the system makes it difficult to really tighten up despite the very favorable conditions in the region.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri should continue moving northwestward today but should turn northward tonight. It will then turn northward tomorrow and then northeastward by Monday. We no longer expect Kanmuri to become a typhoon although there is still a small chance that it does become one. Whatever the case may be, Kanmuri should stay well south and east of Mainland Japan. Parts of Southern and Eastern Honshu may see some high waves and gusty winds but overall, the stormy conditions should stay over sea.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 092614
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Tropical Storm Kanmuri continues to slowly consolidate and intensify this morning. The system was last located approximately 880km north northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity continuing to grow and wrap around the circulation center. Kanmuri remains in an area of low wind shear with good radial outflow. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support further intensification. As it continues to consolidate, Kanmuri may reach typhoon strength as we move into Sunday.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Kanmuri is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward and will approach the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow. It may intensify into a Typhoon by Sunday as it tracks northward. By Monday, Kanmuri is forecast to recurve to the northeast and should avoid a direct hit in Mainland Japan. Still, parts of Southeastern Honshu may see some gusty winds and light rains Monday and into Tuesday.

We'll have another update later today.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #1

Issued (0530 UTC) 130pm PhT 092514
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A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Storm Kanmuri is slowly developing near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 780km north northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kanmuri is moving westward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective clouds slowly building and wrapping around the circulation. The low-level center is still partially exposed and the presence of dry air to the west is limiting convection. Nevertheless, shear is light and the upper-level environment is providing good outflow from the system. Kanmuri should continue its slow but steady intensification pace.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models have become more aligned with the projected track for Kanmuri. Our preliminary forecast track is based on the consensus among the models and have moderate confidence. Kanmuri should move northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will steady intensify and could become a typhoon by Sunday. By that time, Kanmuri is forecast to recurve to the northeast which should avoid a direct landfall in Japan. However, parts of Honshu may still see some breezy winds, light rains, and high waves.

We'll have another update tomorrow.