Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #1

Issued (0530 UTC) 130pm PhT 092514

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed in the Western Pacific today. Tropical Storm Kanmuri is slowly developing near the Mariana Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 780km north northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Kanmuri is moving westward at 5kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective clouds slowly building and wrapping around the circulation. The low-level center is still partially exposed and the presence of dry air to the west is limiting convection. Nevertheless, shear is light and the upper-level environment is providing good outflow from the system. Kanmuri should continue its slow but steady intensification pace.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Computer models have become more aligned with the projected track for Kanmuri. Our preliminary forecast track is based on the consensus among the models and have moderate confidence. Kanmuri should move northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours. It will steady intensify and could become a typhoon by Sunday. By that time, Kanmuri is forecast to recurve to the northeast which should avoid a direct landfall in Japan. However, parts of Honshu may still see some breezy winds, light rains, and high waves.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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