Thursday, September 25, 2014

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #2

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 092614

Tropical Storm Kanmuri continues to slowly consolidate and intensify this morning. The system was last located approximately 880km north northeast of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity continuing to grow and wrap around the circulation center. Kanmuri remains in an area of low wind shear with good radial outflow. Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are warm enough to support further intensification. As it continues to consolidate, Kanmuri may reach typhoon strength as we move into Sunday.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Kanmuri is forecast to continue moving generally northwestward and will approach the Ogasawara Islands tomorrow. It may intensify into a Typhoon by Sunday as it tracks northward. By Monday, Kanmuri is forecast to recurve to the northeast and should avoid a direct hit in Mainland Japan. Still, parts of Southeastern Honshu may see some gusty winds and light rains Monday and into Tuesday.

We'll have another update later today.

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