Friday, September 26, 2014

Tropical Storm Kanmuri Update #3

Issued (04 UTC) 12pm PhT 092714

Tropical Storm Kanmuri has intensified even further this morning as it moves near the Ogasawara Islands. The storm center was last located approximately 330km northeast of the island of Iwo To (Iwo Jima). Maximum sustained winds are now at 100kph with gusts of up to 130kph. TS Kanmuri is moving northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing to build, especially along the eastern flank. Kanmuri is showing characteristics of a monsoon depression with a very large circulation and weak convection near the center. We are also seeing multiple vortices spinning around a common center. The large nature of the system makes it difficult to really tighten up despite the very favorable conditions in the region.

Tropical Storm Kanmuri should continue moving northwestward today but should turn northward tonight. It will then turn northward tomorrow and then northeastward by Monday. We no longer expect Kanmuri to become a typhoon although there is still a small chance that it does become one. Whatever the case may be, Kanmuri should stay well south and east of Mainland Japan. Parts of Southern and Eastern Honshu may see some high waves and gusty winds but overall, the stormy conditions should stay over sea.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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