Saturday, August 22, 2015

Typhoon Goni (Ineng) Update #8

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 082315

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Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) is showing signs of possible re-intensification as it moves closer to the Miyako Islands of Japan. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 130km southwest of Ishigakijima, Japan or about 250km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan or about 370km north northwest of Basco, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds are at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Batanes Group of Islands. Meanwhile, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued Storm Warnings for Yaeyema Islands, along with several advisories for high waves, heavy rains, and floods.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Goni has started to clear out after an apparent eyewall replacement cycle happened last night. A new eyewall has successfully taken over and we are starting to see convective activity respond to that as cold cloud tops reappear around the core. Apart from the successful EWRC, Goni is moving into an area of high ocean heat content, and radial outflow has also improved. We expect Goni to re-intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon later this evening and may maintain that intensity for another 24 to 48 hours.

Radar Image from JMA

Latest radar image from Yaeyema Islands show the well-developed eyewall of Goni with heavy to extreme rains embedded along the bands. Some of those bands have begun to impact Yaeyema Islands bringing rainfall rates of up to 20mm of rain in just an hour. Some of these islands, especially those closer to the core, may receive up to a total of 200mm of rain in the next 24 to 36 hours. Even parts of Okinawa and the nearby islands may see periods of heavy rains tomorrow morning.

For the latest radar images and weather warnings for Japan, please click HERE (JMA Website)

Typhoon Goni (Bagyong Ineng) will continue moving north northeastward over the next few days. We expect slight re-intensification to happen between tonight and into tomorrow as conditions will remain favorable for typhoon strengthening. By tomorrow morning (Monday), Goni is forecast to move just west of Okinawa as a Category 2 Typhoon. Strong winds and heavy rains are forecast to linger across the region through Tuesday.

Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon Goni will also continue to affect much of the Philippines, particularly Luzon and Western Visayas. Many areas, including Baguio City, have received as much as 250mm of rain in the past two days. We expect the wet weather to prevail across the said regions through the middle part of the week.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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