Sunday, August 16, 2015

Typhoon Goni Update #4

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 081715

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Goni has rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 4 Typhoon. The eye of Goni was last located approximately 560km northwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 215kph with gusts of up to 260kph. Typhoon Goni is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a very small eye has appeared this morning surrounded by strong convective activity. Radial outflow is also improved. Due to the nature of the structure, we expect Goni to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle pretty soon. Depending on the intensification in the next 12 to 24 hours, Goni may reach a peak of Category 5 Super Typhoon strength before slowly weakening by the middle of the week.

Latest forecast consensus is still showing a track that may take Goni towards Taiwan later this week. If Goni is able to successfully complete the eyewall replacement cycle, it may maintain strong typhoon-intensity as it pushes westward. Based on the current speed, Goni may start affecting Taiwan and nearby regions by Thursday and Friday. Even parts of Northern Philippines may see some stormy conditions once we approach that period.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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